AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[GALeftist]

Knives are out big time. Stanton hinting he might take a bite at the apple here. Also, typically atrocious numbers for Sinema.

https://twitter.com/gregstantonaz/status/1601307744874921984

[Dani Rose]

Random thought: any chance Schumer talks Manchin into dismantling the filibuster now that Manchin's career is functionally over?

[Skill and Chance]

Random thought: any chance Schumer talks Manchin into dismantling the filibuster now that Manchin's career is functionally over?

Why on earth would he push for that when Dems have already lost the House and are staring down the Class I Senate map in 2024?  Can you say Federal Abortion Ban Act of 2025?

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Random thought: any chance Schumer talks Manchin into dismantling the filibuster now that Manchin's career is functionally over?

.....While the GOP controls the House??? 0% the filibuster isn't blocking the dems from anything 20223-2024

[new_patomic]

Did Stanton really just casually reveal that his internal polling was looking into primarying her

That's hilarious

[Dani Rose]

Random thought: any chance Schumer talks Manchin into dismantling the filibuster now that Manchin's career is functionally over?

Why on earth would he push for that when Dems have already lost the House and are staring down the Class I Senate map in 2024?  Can you say Federal Abortion Ban Act of 2025?

I mean, I don't think they end it entirely, but maybe weakening it in terms of where it applies. I do see your point, though.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Did Stanton really just casually reveal that his internal polling was looking into primarying her

That's hilarious

I mean, aside from Ruben Gallego, he was the most likely challenger. Followed by Kate Gallego and whoever the mayor of Tucson is again

[Stockdale for Veep]

And people had the gall to lump Diamond Joe in with this clown.

[Utah Neolib]

Can we call this thread ‘the Sinematic Universe’ please?

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1601284645559357441?s=20&t=oOK0XBoucD...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Knives are out big time. Stanton hinting he might take a bite at the apple here. Also, typically atrocious numbers for Sinema.

https://twitter.com/gregstantonaz/status/1601307744874921984

I wish I lived in a world where that was true.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1601284645559357441?s=20&t=oOK0XBoucD...

Conventional Wisdom: Kari Lake and Blake Masters win in 2022

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I didn't vote for Sinema in 2020, but she most likely has my vote in 2024 unless the GOP puts a solid candidate up.

As for the GOP there is going to be a lot more wiggle room with the nominee. I don't think we need to put a Yee type again, but someone like Finchem might be a bridge too far. I wouldn't mind seeing a Masters sequel run, but I'm not sure what he has changed from 2022. Either Matt Salmon or KTR will likely run as well. The issue for MAGA in AZ was there was a good chunk of "McCain" voters that went for the Dems, but if they go for Sinema over Gallego that leaves the door wide open.

[Хahar 🤔]

Random thought: any chance Schumer talks Manchin into dismantling the filibuster now that Manchin's career is functionally over?

Manchin's career isn't remotely over.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It depends on the WVA pipeline during this Congress it's DOA but in the next Congress it's not with an RH it's likely to be in the Debt Ceiling along with extended tax cuts and Border wall anyways they are just not gonna touch entitlements

We just gotta win a combo of WVA, MT, OH, FL and TX and FL and OH aren't voting 20% to the right of the nation in a Prez yr and Biden polls in Rassy are 50/49 why because Gas prices are 3.31 not 6.99 anymore that's why Putin gave up Griner


Will Justice be a Fav over Manchin yes he would but there is still a pathway for Ds to keep the Senate if we lose MANCHIN and Sinema Gallego, Brown and TESTER

[TML]

Random thought: any chance Schumer talks Manchin into dismantling the filibuster now that Manchin's career is functionally over?

Manchin's career isn't remotely over.

If you believe that is so, can you identify which elected office (excluding local-level elected offices) he can win after his current term ends?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think this is still a tossup because this just throws more uncertainty into an already uncertain race. I'd say if it was a more normal D v R matchup, Ds would likely have a slight edge.

There are many possibilities including:

-Sinema ultimately decides not to seek re-election after seeing the numbers and it ends up being a normal D v R matchup

-Sinema runs as a 3rd party, but sort of fades into oblivion and ends up not really being a spoiler and taking more than a few %

-Sinema runs a decently successful independent campaign enough to spoil the race either way. Which way really depends upon how she postures herself these next 2 years and who's votes she tries to gain

-If the national mood is not looking great, one of the major parties just decides to consolidate behind her like Dems did with Evan McMullin.

-Sinema ends up trying to make a play to be the "behind" Republican or Democrat and hope the party just lines up behind her because they have no better option.



I think my biggest worry is that the Dem establishment basically stays silent and allows her to split the Dem vote as more progressive organizations back the Dem. I think it'd still take a bit for folks like Kelly or Biden to outright campaign against her though we shall see.

[Landslide Lyndon]

All these scenarios are predicated on the notion that Sinema is a skillful politician who has her finger on the pulse of her constituents.
Is that really the impression anyone got the last four years instead of a weirdo consumed by her own narcissism and constant need for self-promotion?

[S019]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1601284645559357441?s=20&t=oOK0XBoucD...

Lamb is totally bonkers, he's a Trumpist who attended 1/6. He's also hard right on like all of the major social issues, nominating him would push this firmly into Lean D even if Sinema ran independent (he seems very much like the type of guy who'd perform like Masters).

[wbrocks67]

Oh god this is going to be so exhausting. Couldn't she have waited to do this. I don't think I can handle 2 years of this...

[Nyvin]

Sinema isn't liked by literally ANY demographic, she has no base anywhere.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1601207264895201281

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm at a hardcore show now so I'll say more when I get home/sober up but one thing I think is being underdiscussed is who exactly is Sinema going to get her campaign funds from? Corporate PACs aren't enough and probably won't even be interested, they like to back winners. Maybe she can get some hoping to keep influence for the rest of her current Senate term but those can only go so far with fundraising limits. And who is going to go doorknock for her?

[The Mikado]

I'm at a hardcore show now so I'll say more when I get home/sober up but one thing I think is being underdiscussed is who exactly is Sinema going to get her campaign funds from? Corporate PACs aren't enough and probably won't even be interested, they like to back winners. Maybe she can get some hoping to keep influence for the rest of her current Senate term but those can only go so far with fundraising limits. And who is going to go doorknock for her?

People have no idea what they're talking about on financing campaigns anymore. You're absolutely right. People think "big money" is, well, big. It really, really isn't, in the age of ActBlue etc. It's wild how many people haven't noticed Dems outraising/outspending Rs basically everywhere ever in 2018, 2020, and 2022...and Indies have it much worse than Rs. Gallego will likely outraise her 5X or more every quarter, and the R will be way ahead of her as well. There is no ActBlue or WinRed for an independent candidate.

And you mentioned doorknocking, but, like I said in the other thread, she needs 42k signatures to get on the ballot. She'll need to pay signature gatherers, and they are expensive. No volunteers will touch this.

I think if she tries she PROBABLY gets on the ballot, but it's FAR from a sure thing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Alright so here's my extended thoughts I alluded to:

As you can see in all the polls posted about this, Sinema's general favorability numbers are absolutely wretched and awful across the board. It's not just Democrats who aren't happy she's not progressive enough. Even independents don't like her (amusingly one graph showed Republicans did like her until she voted to convict Trump and then she went underwater with them too.) No one believes that she's "an independent voice for Arizona" or whatever, she's mostly seen as a grandstanding attention grabber by all sides. And furthermore she's also known for being lousy on things like constituent services.

So Sinema is so far underwater that I think as an independent candidate she's basically now in "generic protest vote" territory for who actually does vote for her. And while one might assume that such voters who find both the Democratic and Republican candidates unacceptable might still find the Democrats less bad if the Republican candidate is some loony like Kari Lake, if you look at patterns of them you'll find they're pretty irrational and unpredictable...see the weed parties in MN-Sen 2020 for a great example and the pattern there. So it's a stretch to say she's pulling any consistent Democratic voters. Even the sort of voters who voted for Biden and Hobbs but vote R downballot still won't be voting for her much because they generally aren't the type to vote third-party at all.

Another factor is "anti-partisans", basically people who refuse to ever vote for one of the major parties but aren't completely locked in to voting for their own. My own district provides a great example: in 2020 Ilhan Omar underran Biden more by a massive margin and more than any other Democrat in the country. But if you look at the results you'll see that a majority of the Biden/Not Omar vote actually didn't vote Republican but rather mostly for the weed party candidate. And then this year when it was a two-party race she only underran Walz (who ran about equal with Biden) by about four points. So there's clearly a substantial number of voters who don't like Omar and don't want to vote for her but also refuse to ever vote Republican as well and will hold their nose and vote for her if a Republican is the only other option. In a state like Arizona, there's probably a lot of Republican equivalents, this also explains how Lake ran so well, it was a two-way race. As Nate Silver speculated in a tweet, an independent Sinema would give these type of voters an off-ramp to not have to vote for either the Lake-like crazy or a Democrat.

Probably all moot though because for the reasons covered by me before and Mikado I doubt she even runs.

[prag_prog]

Saw on twitter that Lake is recommending Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb to run for Senate..apparently this dude is another Finchem. tbh I wonder whether Arizona has highest number of RW lunatics per capita among all the states.