AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Zedonathin2020]

Endorsed.

https://twitter.com/rubengallego/status/1617507452198469636?s=46&t=rO2u2jcnX...

And with that, the Pennsylvania ‘22 of 2024 has officially begun.

[JMT]

Apparently Maricopa County Sheriff Paul Penzone is also considering a run:

https://twitter.com/vaughnhillyard/status/1617510201749274625?s=46&t=DwT6i-9...

[Lambsbread]

Whole-heartedly, enthusiastically endorsed.

edit: The merch game is INSANE

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So, we have Kari Lake probably jumping in, we have Stanton clearing the way for Gallego, and we have Gallego about to make his candidacy official.

Let me be the first to congratulate Senator-elect Gallego on his upcoming victory.

Sinema will end up probably getting less than 5% of the vote, receiving support only from a few Republican dead-enders who think that voting for Sinema triggers the libs or something.

She will almost certainly get over 5% of the vote. In 2016, even Green party activist Gary Swing got 5.5% in the senate race. Last year, Betsy Johnson got 8.6% without incumbency. Sinema is such a well known name, she likely gets at least 10% probably over 15%.

[Sir Mohamed]

Great news, endorsed!

Seems like this clears the Dem field? Gallego is the favorite of the party apparatus and seems progressive enough for the faction to be accepted in a purple state like AZ.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So, we have Kari Lake probably jumping in, we have Stanton clearing the way for Gallego, and we have Gallego about to make his candidacy official.

Let me be the first to congratulate Senator-elect Gallego on his upcoming victory.

Sinema will end up probably getting less than 5% of the vote, receiving support only from a few Republican dead-enders who think that voting for Sinema triggers the libs or something.

She will almost certainly get over 5% of the vote. In 2016, even Green party activist Gary Swing got 5.5% in the senate race. Last year, Betsy Johnson got 8.6% without incumbency. Sinema is such a well known name, she likely gets at least 10% probably over 15%.

Not in a heavily federalized Senate race; 10% is prolly her ceiling. A lot of it will depend upon how she carves out her space though.

I wasn’t alive in 2016, but can anyone explain why Swing got such a high share; always confused me, especially since Kirkpatrick seemed fine.

[Comrade Funk]

So, we have Kari Lake probably jumping in, we have Stanton clearing the way for Gallego, and we have Gallego about to make his candidacy official.

Let me be the first to congratulate Senator-elect Gallego on his upcoming victory.

Sinema will end up probably getting less than 5% of the vote, receiving support only from a few Republican dead-enders who think that voting for Sinema triggers the libs or something.

She will almost certainly get over 5% of the vote. In 2016, even Green party activist Gary Swing got 5.5% in the senate race. Last year, Betsy Johnson got 8.6% without incumbency. Sinema is such a well known name, she likely gets at least 10% probably over 15%.

15% is almost impossible. She might poll at that level, but that polling will dwindle the closer you get to November as polarization (plus a presidential election) kicks in. She gets 7% tops imo. If she runs.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So, we have Kari Lake probably jumping in, we have Stanton clearing the way for Gallego, and we have Gallego about to make his candidacy official.

Let me be the first to congratulate Senator-elect Gallego on his upcoming victory.

Sinema will end up probably getting less than 5% of the vote, receiving support only from a few Republican dead-enders who think that voting for Sinema triggers the libs or something.

She will almost certainly get over 5% of the vote. In 2016, even Green party activist Gary Swing got 5.5% in the senate race. Last year, Betsy Johnson got 8.6% without incumbency. Sinema is such a well known name, she likely gets at least 10% probably over 15%.

Not in a heavily federalized Senate race; 10% is prolly her ceiling. A lot of it will depend upon how she carves out her space though.

I wasn’t alive in 2016, but can anyone explain why Swing got such a high share; always confused me, especially since Kirkpatrick seemed fine.

Although McCain was considered somewhat vulnerable during 2016 it was pretty clear by October that he was going to win. A large portion of the AZ Dems are activist liberals, and did not like Kirkpatrick's centrist brand (not too different with how they view Sinema) and found no reason to hold their noses and vote for her since McCain was on track to victory anyway. As a result, a decent amount of them voted Swing which is why Kirkpatrick got just 41%.

[Smash255]

So, we have Kari Lake probably jumping in, we have Stanton clearing the way for Gallego, and we have Gallego about to make his candidacy official.

Let me be the first to congratulate Senator-elect Gallego on his upcoming victory.

Sinema will end up probably getting less than 5% of the vote, receiving support only from a few Republican dead-enders who think that voting for Sinema triggers the libs or something.

She will almost certainly get over 5% of the vote. In 2016, even Green party activist Gary Swing got 5.5% in the senate race. Last year, Betsy Johnson got 8.6% without incumbency. Sinema is such a well known name, she likely gets at least 10% probably over 15%.

Not in a heavily federalized Senate race; 10% is prolly her ceiling. A lot of it will depend upon how she carves out her space though.

I wasn’t alive in 2016, but can anyone explain why Swing got such a high share; always confused me, especially since Kirkpatrick seemed fine.

I knew what you meant, but this just made me feel very old...

[prag_prog]

Biggest question in this race is whether Sinema is willing to dropout if she is still polling at around 10% in early 2024.

[President Johnson]

Will Gallego run unopposed in the primary? I think there's a good chance.

Hopefully Arizona elects a real Democrat this time. I bet the Republican base will help them by nominating another far-right lunatic. Maybe it doesn't matter too much whether Sinema sticks around them or not.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Biggest question in this race is whether Sinema is willing to dropout if she is still polling at around 10% in early 2024.

Her polling doesn’t matter, it’s if she stops getting air time.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Whole-heartedly, enthusiastically endorsed.

edit: The merch game is INSANE

Love it.

[VBM]

So, we have Kari Lake probably jumping in, we have Stanton clearing the way for Gallego, and we have Gallego about to make his candidacy official.

Let me be the first to congratulate Senator-elect Gallego on his upcoming victory.

Sinema will end up probably getting less than 5% of the vote, receiving support only from a few Republican dead-enders who think that voting for Sinema triggers the libs or something.

She will almost certainly get over 5% of the vote. In 2016, even Green party activist Gary Swing got 5.5% in the senate race. Last year, Betsy Johnson got 8.6% without incumbency. Sinema is such a well known name, she likely gets at least 10% probably over 15%.

If true, this is terrible for the GOP. They can't afford to have Sinema siphoning this many votes away from them

[windjammer]

Let's go Gallego!!!

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Cmon Kate jump in you know you wanna

[Spectator]

Apparently Maricopa County Sheriff Paul Penzone is also considering a run:

https://twitter.com/vaughnhillyard/status/1617510201749274625?s=46&t=DwT6i-9...

He’d make more sense for AZ-01

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So, we have Kari Lake probably jumping in, we have Stanton clearing the way for Gallego, and we have Gallego about to make his candidacy official.

Let me be the first to congratulate Senator-elect Gallego on his upcoming victory.

Sinema will end up probably getting less than 5% of the vote, receiving support only from a few Republican dead-enders who think that voting for Sinema triggers the libs or something.

She will almost certainly get over 5% of the vote. In 2016, even Green party activist Gary Swing got 5.5% in the senate race. Last year, Betsy Johnson got 8.6% without incumbency. Sinema is such a well known name, she likely gets at least 10% probably over 15%.

If true, this is terrible for the GOP. They can't afford to have Sinema siphoning this many votes away from them

Sinema will probably siphon of the McCain people who might be registered "Republicans", but Rs don't need any of them to win in a plurality. They voted for Biden, Hobbs, and Kelly and by backing a third party if anything it opens the door for either Gallego or the R candidate to win this in a plurality. Now if the AZGOP nominates someone less MAGA like KTR or Ciscomani or whoever, they probably peel off enough McCainites to secure a win. Someone like Lake gives Sinema a perfect opening to point Gallego as the far-left, Lake as the far-right and run a serious campaign that targets moderate voters. At that point its basically a war of attrition between the Dem and R base and who has a higher plurality.

[Yoda]

Biggest question in this race is whether Sinema is willing to dropout if she is still polling at around 10% in early 2024.

Her polling doesn’t matter, it’s if she stops getting air time.

I dunno, I read someone say that she's probably too vain to stay in if the defeat looks like it will be by a humiliating margin, and I found myself agreeing with that take. She's so self-important that such a loss would shatter her "image."

[ProgressiveModerate]

So, we have Kari Lake probably jumping in, we have Stanton clearing the way for Gallego, and we have Gallego about to make his candidacy official.

Let me be the first to congratulate Senator-elect Gallego on his upcoming victory.

Sinema will end up probably getting less than 5% of the vote, receiving support only from a few Republican dead-enders who think that voting for Sinema triggers the libs or something.

She will almost certainly get over 5% of the vote. In 2016, even Green party activist Gary Swing got 5.5% in the senate race. Last year, Betsy Johnson got 8.6% without incumbency. Sinema is such a well known name, she likely gets at least 10% probably over 15%.

If true, this is terrible for the GOP. They can't afford to have Sinema siphoning this many votes away from them

Sinema will probably siphon of the McCain people who might be registered "Republicans", but Rs don't need any of them to win in a plurality. They voted for Biden, Hobbs, and Kelly and by backing a third party if anything it opens the door for either Gallego or the R candidate to win this in a plurality. Now if the AZGOP nominates someone less MAGA like KTR or Ciscomani or whoever, they probably peel off enough McCainites to secure a win. Someone like Lake gives Sinema a perfect opening to point Gallego as the far-left, Lake as the far-right and run a serious campaign that targets moderate voters. At that point its basically a war of attrition between the Dem and R base and who has a higher plurality.

Ig it really depends upon how she defines herself in the Senate race (assuming she stays in till the end), specifically in determining what share of the vote she actually ends up with and who she takes more from.

Firstly, vote share will depend upon if she's actively on the airwaves as much as her 2 opponents and can actually define a corner for herself. She sorta has to convince the public she's viable because if people believe she has no shot, they'll revert to partisan corners in fear of "wasting their vote"

Sinema seems to change quite a lot, and while at face value I'd agree the Romney/McCain-Biden/Kelly types would be at the biggest risk, it really depends on Sinema who is very unpredictable.

For this reason, I'm calling this race a tossup cause there's so much uncertainty, and this is the type of situation where they'll be uncertainty till the end.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So, we have Kari Lake probably jumping in, we have Stanton clearing the way for Gallego, and we have Gallego about to make his candidacy official.

Let me be the first to congratulate Senator-elect Gallego on his upcoming victory.

Sinema will end up probably getting less than 5% of the vote, receiving support only from a few Republican dead-enders who think that voting for Sinema triggers the libs or something.

She will almost certainly get over 5% of the vote. In 2016, even Green party activist Gary Swing got 5.5% in the senate race. Last year, Betsy Johnson got 8.6% without incumbency. Sinema is such a well known name, she likely gets at least 10% probably over 15%.

If true, this is terrible for the GOP. They can't afford to have Sinema siphoning this many votes away from them

Sinema will probably siphon of the McCain people who might be registered "Republicans", but Rs don't need any of them to win in a plurality. They voted for Biden, Hobbs, and Kelly and by backing a third party if anything it opens the door for either Gallego or the R candidate to win this in a plurality. Now if the AZGOP nominates someone less MAGA like KTR or Ciscomani or whoever, they probably peel off enough McCainites to secure a win. Someone like Lake gives Sinema a perfect opening to point Gallego as the far-left, Lake as the far-right and run a serious campaign that targets moderate voters. At that point its basically a war of attrition between the Dem and R base and who has a higher plurality.

https://twitter.com/SenatorSinema/status/1617633841065385986?s=20&t=p1l_f295...

Just found this which is quite interesting. Basically a lot of mayors around greater Pheonix saying positive things of Sinema. Most seem to represent swingy to red leaning outer suburbs and exurbs, and if I had to guess, prolly a mix of people who usually vote R except during 2020/2022 and mayors who held their nose and voted for Masters/Lake reluctantly.

Now just because they said nice things doesn't necessarily mean they will end up supporting or endorsing her formally, but still interesting and def goes along with your general theory.

[Ferguson97]

Doing whatever I can to help Gallego. Terrified that Sinema will siphon off too many votes for give Lake (or some other nut) a plurality win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Doing whatever I can to help Gallego. Terrified that Sinema will siphon off too many votes for give Lake (or some other nut) a plurality win.

LoL it's 2 yrs toll Eday we don't have to start donating till Jan to June of 24 don't waste money untill Biden is exhonerated on the Documents not saying he is gonna lose but I donated to Strickland, Ryan, Bullock, Boiler and Joe Kennedy the yr prior and they all lost, because I donated to Bernie a yr prior till Eday

I will donate to Gallego but not now , we have to wait for FBI the one that exhonerated Hillary not D commentary's

[wbrocks67]

Curious how much Gallego raised 1st day, has got to be quite a bit.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Curious how much Gallego raised 1st day, has got to be quite a bit.

LoL it's Jan 23 not 24 we have a long way I prematurely donated to Bullock, Joe Kennedy, Strickland and Ryan a yr prior and they all lost, remember Boiler of KS Sen, why because if Biden is on the margin of 50/47 it's very hard to win red states and its likely without an Impeachment a 51/47 Eday a 303 map but with Harris and Gilchrist it's still will be a 51/47 after Impeachment to knock Biden out of nominated, he doesn't have to be convicted, he just have to be impeached, and it's highly likely an impeachment inquiry will happen late this yr