AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[xavier110]

This woman is a self obsessed clown. We cannot have her as a senator for thirty years

The Ds need to run Gallego.

[wbrocks67]

The thing with Sinema is that she could very easily be a great Senator, and very popular. Except it comes down to how she positions everything. She could easily be another King or Sanders and be a D-caucusing Independent. But it's all about perception, and she has made an unnecessary enemy with progressives for whatever reason, and her disdain for them just seems so odd given that she owes a lot of her 2018 victory to their help (and the Democrats help)! Not sure why she wants to be so combative with people and voters who are the reason she is here today.

Not only that, but pre-2020 she was very much a team player. When she cut that ad for Mark Kelly, it really seemed like there was synergy. Now she doesn't even seem to care about Kelly, did nothing for him or Hobbs this year, doesn't even seem to have a rapport with them, but likes cozying up with Republicans in the senate. What is the game here?

Also her interview with CNN was ... something. She needs to work on her tone and body language. The way she speaks screams fake and disingenuous, like this is all a premeditated and pre-cooked persona that she's trying to be, rather than who she really is.

[smoltchanov]

This woman is a self obsessed clown. We cannot have her as a senator for thirty years

The Ds need to run Gallego.

You are so sure he will win? I - don't. Arizona is still very purple state, may be - even slightly red, when Republicans nominate "normal" candidate like Kimberly Yee.... And Sinema (in case of her race as Indie) will, undoubtedly, get more Democratic-leaning votes then Republican-leaning. So, in such case Democrats have a very good chance to lose (after all - they almost lost an Oregon governorship this year in similar situation, despite Oregon being much more Democratic and liberal, then Arizona)....

[Sir Mohamed]

Sinema isn't running for reelection. I said that for a while. No chance she wins now unless the GOP doesn't nominate a candidate. And that won't happen.

[wbrocks67]

This is so funny. She expected Dems to lose and then swoop in with his high and mighty messaging. Dems did good and it was too late anyway, so she still had to go along with it. So stupid.

Yeah, the irony of all of this is that Mark Kelly is still a "100% voting with Biden" senator but also does STILL come off pretty independent and not a D hack, so it IS doable. And he just won by 5%! So the argument that she's making isn't even a correct one, because Mark Kelly is proving that his brand of doing things works in Arizona. And the way she's doing it is clearly... not.

[Inmate Trump]

Even if she runs as an independent, and splits the Dem ticket paving the way for a GOP win...I really don't care.

This should be the end of her political career, and sacrificing her seat to a Republican (while not ideal), so be it.

(And I'm not entirely convinced that her running as an indie will definitely keep the Democratic candidate from winning.)

[coloradocowboi]

2024 becomes a game of chicken for the Democrats.

I suspect despite her objectively terrible favorables with Democrats she would still hurt a potential D candidate more than a GOP one.

The fact is I can't see many AZ Lake voters voting for her and in a 3 way race they are enough.

Her "base" is probably moderate dems, old McCain republicans. 

Do we have polls showing her favorability with how people voted in 2022? That will give us a better idea of who she would hurt. 

I think what you’re gesturing toward is just how bad her electoral prospects are period. Most republicans won’t vote for her. But where I disagree is most democrats won’t either, if she has a 10% approval in the party. I’m general, she will be lucky to get 10% of the total vote. I would assume she knows this and either doesn’t run or runs only in the case of a far right maga gop nominee

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Any news on what her staff is planning to do?

[xavier110]

This woman is a self obsessed clown. We cannot have her as a senator for thirty years

The Ds need to run Gallego.

You are so sure he will win? I - don't. Arizona is still very purple state, may be - even slightly red, when Republicans nominate "normal" candidate like Kimberly Yee.... And Sinema (in case of her race as Indie) will, undoubtedly, get more Democratic-leaning votes then Republican-leaning. So, in such case Democrats have a very good chance to lose (after all - they almost lost an Oregon governorship this year in similar situation, despite Oregon being much more Democratic and liberal, then Arizona)....

I am not sure he wins, but it’s a gamble worth taking unless we want to be stuck with Sinema forever (or potentially Sen Kelli Ward for a term). It’s a real test of the D party.

[smoltchanov]

This woman is a self obsessed clown. We cannot have her as a senator for thirty years

The Ds need to run Gallego.

You are so sure he will win? I - don't. Arizona is still very purple state, may be - even slightly red, when Republicans nominate "normal" candidate like Kimberly Yee.... And Sinema (in case of her race as Indie) will, undoubtedly, get more Democratic-leaning votes then Republican-leaning. So, in such case Democrats have a very good chance to lose (after all - they almost lost an Oregon governorship this year in similar situation, despite Oregon being much more Democratic and liberal, then Arizona)....

I am not sure he wins, but it’s a gamble worth taking unless we want to be stuck with Sinema forever (or potentially Sen Kelli Ward for a term). It’s a real test of the D party.

Again - not sure. Sinema had about 80 rating from ADA last year. IMHO - that's not perfect, but - much better, then high-stakes risk...

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

My impression of Gallego is that he is will be a terrific Senator and fill an enormous gap in the Democratic party.  The Dems really need a Latino U.S. Senator who is enthusistic about fostering a national profile rather than just quietly representing their state.

The lack of nationally visible descriptive leadership is (IMO) one of the biggest contributors to the erosion of Latino support for Dems over the past 5 years.

Dems not only need to unite around his candidacy, but give him a role like 2024 convention keynote speaker.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, this whole thing seems very craven and predicated on the idea that she thought Dems would flop in the midterms and this would give her even more power. The fact that she would rather do that than try and help Dems win the senate in the midterms tells me a lot of how much of a team player she is.

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1601222018997047296

[5280]

I didn't vote for Sinema in 2020, but she most likely has my vote in 2024 unless the GOP puts a solid candidate up.

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/dcg1114/status/1601204674954424320?s=20&t=YsaltoTIPQ59rT...

Bizarrely wouldn't polling like this suggest she actually potentially draws more Republicans or Republican-leaning independents than she would Democrats in an independent bid?

These numbers (if accurate) suggest she has no path in a three-way race and at least on the surface would take more right-leaning votes than left-leaning votes. Especially if AZ Republican primary voters produce another superstar nominee who will be prone to losing some Republican voters, I'm not yet seeing how she has boxed out Gallego/the left like many are saying she has unless she is able to drastically turn around these numbers in a way that improves her standing with independents while paradoxically losing Republican support.

[NYDem]

She had a 7/76 approval/disapproval among Democrats before this stunt. She can’t honestly be considering an independent run in 2024 with those kind of numbers. The Democratic candidate would probably get a 95/5 split there, and Sinema would run the risk of taking more from the Republican anyway (she has bad approvals in all crosstabs, but she performs better with Reps than Dems these days).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Honestly it's a stretch to assume she'd take more votes from the Democratic candidate if there's a 3-way race in 2024....just look at her favorables amongst Democrats and why she had no chance in the primary.

I actually suspect she'll either not run again or drop out after dismal numbers as an independent.

[5280]

If she runs in 2024 and loses, what are her future prospects? Similar to Tulsi Gabbard?

[Inmate Trump]

I didn't vote for Sinema in 2020, but she most likely has my vote in 2024 unless the GOP puts a solid candidate up.

So then you're voting for Sinema

[Not Me, Us]

I have no idea why Schumer would let her keep her committee assignments. She's a consistent problem for him and this latest stunt will do little to endear her to him. We still have the majority without her, so who cares?

[new_patomic]

I have no idea why Schumer would let her keep her committee assignments. She's a consistent problem for him and this latest stunt will do little to endear her to him. We still have the majority without her, so who cares?

You let her keep his assignments as long as she still caucuses with you, because if she caucuses with you that means you control every single committee and can finally start moving nominations forward without relying on discharge petitions.

[Not Me, Us]

I have no idea why Schumer would let her keep her committee assignments. She's a consistent problem for him and this latest stunt will do little to endear her to him. We still have the majority without her, so who cares?

You let her keep his assignments as long as she still caucuses with you, because if she caucuses with you that means you control every single committee and can finally start moving nominations forward without relying on discharge petitions.

Right now it seems like she's planning on not caucusing with either party, which would still give Dems a 50-49 advantage over Republicans, so we should still get complete control over committees. This would only be an issue if she caucuses with Republicans, which I guess isn't out of the question.

[Sir Mohamed]

This woman is a self obsessed clown. We cannot have her as a senator for thirty years

The Ds need to run Gallego.

You are so sure he will win? I - don't. Arizona is still very purple state, may be - even slightly red, when Republicans nominate "normal" candidate like Kimberly Yee.... And Sinema (in case of her race as Indie) will, undoubtedly, get more Democratic-leaning votes then Republican-leaning. So, in such case Democrats have a very good chance to lose (after all - they almost lost an Oregon governorship this year in similar situation, despite Oregon being much more Democratic and liberal, then Arizona)....

If one thing, Kelly proved you can be mainstream Dem and still win AZ in a neutral or slightly red environment by 4 pts. Manchin may have an excuse being from a Trump +42 state, Sinema is clearly just an attention-seeking opportunist with no principals.

I'm glad when she's out come January 2025.

[xavier110]

If she runs in 2024 and loses, what are her future prospects? Similar to Tulsi Gabbard?

She becomes Trump’s VP nominee in 2024 and writes a book called Cancel Culture: How I Survived My Cancellation as a Swing State Pink Haired Bisexual Democrat. She completes the cycle we have seen before with Russian trolls, going from anti war leftie to Neo Nazi MAGA.

[new_patomic]

Genuine question but

Do we think Sinema is actually happy being a Senator?

She doesn't really seem to like or enjoy most aspects of being a politician, be it attending caucus meetings or calling stakeholders or doing basic relationship maintenance with state party officials. She doesn't like the press. She's chummy with business groups but my impression is she rarely meets with outside orgs as a whole. I guess she still does townhalls but those are probably pretty curated; she isn't just going to sit there and deal with a bunch of "angry activists."

What aspects of the job do she actually enjoy, or make her happy.

Even with voting, she's been very adamant in the past that her schedule is her schedule and if she has to leave suck it up.

Does she even enjoy this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2024 becomes a game of chicken for the Democrats.

I suspect despite her objectively terrible favorables with Democrats she would still hurt a potential D candidate more than a GOP one.

The fact is I can't see many AZ Lake voters voting for her and in a 3 way race they are enough.

Her "base" is probably moderate dems, old McCain republicans. 

Do we have polls showing her favorability with how people voted in 2022? That will give us a better idea of who she would hurt. 

Ruben GALLEGO hasn't announced for Sen yet and it's tough because Ds can take the H in the next Eday cycle Rs we're supposed to win. 240 seats