AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Cyrusman]

I think Lean D is fair. If Trump wins Arizona then Kari Lake will probably win her race as well, but I think Biden is narrowly favored to win AZ though and its very, very, unlikely Kari Lake of all people can outrun Trump in the suburbs.

I think Trump needs to win by at least 2 or more. I could see a situation where Trump wins by 1-2 while Lake still looses. She is more toxic than Trump is AZ, Biden is way more unpopular than Gallego, and the senate race doesn't have RFK, Stein, and no labels.

Gallego is just too liberal to significantly outrun Biden. Yes, I think he's favored but that's mainly because Biden is probably going to win AZ again. Mark Kelly only outran Biden by around 2 points despite people expecting a much larger victory.

I think sometimes this matters (if he was a squad member or something), but what matters is 'perception' more - and I'm not on the ground in AZ, but Gallego seems to have a good schtick, kind of like Jon Ossoff - where they may be very liberal, but they aren't perceived that way. Or even Mark Kelly tbh, he's not really a 'moderate' per se, he's gone along with all the progressive priorities of the Biden admin. But people still see him as an independent maverick a bit. Now, that's probably a stretch for Gallego, but I also don't think he is or will be seen as some extreme leftwing guy, especially with Lake as his foil. He just needs to be normal at this point.

Would you say this basically comes down to how well your opponent can make the voters of that state understand the "real you" in the sense of fully understanding your opponents voting record, opinions, etc..
For example did David Perdue, and Blake Masters do a poor job with their ads by not showing the people of AZ/GA how liberal those senators are?

Same in ME, did Sara Gideon do a poor job of when it came to her ads by not showing the people of ME how conservative Collins really is?

[xavier110]

In AZ, the calculus is pretty simple. If you’re very MAGA, you probably lose to anti-MAGA, provided that the race is viewed through that lens. At the moment, Kari Lake is viewed as MAGA and Gallego anti-MAGA, and I don’t see that really changing, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket.

Gallego is leaning into the Marine shtick in anticipation of being painted as a fire breathing lib. Granted, the pinko commie lib stuff didn’t really work against Sinema, Hobbs, etc., so shrug. As long as he’s viewed more as anti-MAGA, he should prevail.

[Flyersfan232]

Say what you will about Sinema. She was effective as a bridge, and I don’t know which Democrats are going to be that liaison to getting things done once her and Manchin leave next year.

fetterman?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Say what you will about Sinema. She was effective as a bridge, and I don’t know which Democrats are going to be that liaison to getting things done once her and Manchin leave next year.

fetterman?

We are hoping to break the Filibuster

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1775135688486424981?s=20

[ajc0918]

Gallego is a fundraising machine.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1777746045838991714

[ajc0918]

Awful news for the Trump campaign. Biden is almost certainly favored in Arizona now.

[xavier110]

AZ will be a nuclear holocaust for the GOP this year. I expect them to lose everything: presidential race, senate race, and the state legislature. Confident Schweikert loses. Ciscomani is iffier.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Likely D

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lean D -> Likely D

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Thankful Kris Mayes won by like 8 votes or whatever it was so that this law won't be enforced

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1777773547013783680

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ammarmufasa/status/1777764386934833646

[wbrocks67]

I mean, jfc, this woman is the biggest phony of all time. It's literally on tape!

https://twitter.com/TheLakeTapes/status/1745183516864966723

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Lyin’ Lake!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's pretty hard to envision any sort of path Lake has to victory at this point.

[Lambsbread]

Ruben Gallego could say nothing for the next 7 months and win this election with ease at this point.

[ajc0918]

Kari Lake is the worst republican recruit in a competitive race. She's nasty and voters already rejected her. Her 2024 re-brand is off to a failing start.

[President Johnson]

Kari Lake is the worst republican recruit in a competitive race. She's nasty and voters already rejected her. Her 2024 re-brand is off to a failing start.

Yes, but McCormick is giving her a run for her money.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Kari Lake is the worst republican recruit in a competitive race. She's nasty and voters already rejected her. Her 2024 re-brand is off to a failing start.

Yes, but McCormick is giving her a run for her money.

Don’t forget Eric “people in retirement homes shouldn’t vote” Hovde

[Steve from Lambeth]

Can Kari Lake please stop grifting and start being a productive Republican?

Furthermore, can Republicans please prepare for the upcoming ballot measure, and get their names out there? Ballotpedia shows a full Republican slate on record as being opposed to Ohio Issue 1 last year, but Republican presence was seriously hit-or-miss in the 2022 votes and I cannot recall any coverage whatsoever of any serious anti-abortion campaigning in Ohio or elsewhere, even if just for the ballot measure's sake rather than to help (or hurt) the candidate.

For reminder's sake, the pro-abortion side on each Reproductive Freedom vote so far has been driven by massive media attention, full-throated Democratic support, a broad donor base, and some of the most effective campaigning in recent ballot-measure history; the anti-abortion side has been driven by a handful of dedicated think tanks and Catholic dioceses with loads of cash to spare.

If nothing changes, then the Yes side in Arizona will be playing EA Sports FC 25 while the No side plays tic-tac-toe. This keeps happening in state after state after state, no matter what some Republicans say about abortion being a state issue. I am sure that almost everyone will either want to find out, or fear finding out, what happens when a No campaign puts just as much energy behind itself as the Yes campaign does.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The hits keep on coming:

https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1778095344162689152

[wbrocks67]

Gallego's team could literally just air these for the rest of the cycle and be good. It's not just about her abhorrent positions on abortion, but it exposes her again as just a cynical opportunist who will say anything to get elected.

[Yoda]

AZ will be a nuclear holocaust for the GOP this year. I expect them to lose everything: presidential race, senate race, and the state legislature. Confident Schweikert loses. Ciscomani is iffier.

That would be beyond awesome but I'll believe it when I see it.