Detailed Analysis: Miami-Dade County and Broward County in 2022

[Biden his time]

Wikipedia's color scheme in use

Source for Broward County data
Source for Miami-Dade County data

FINAL PRECINCT MAP - GOVERNOR

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FINAL PRECINCT MAP - US SENATE

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[Biden his time]

BY PLACE IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

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BY PLACE IN BROWARD COUNTY

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[kwabbit]

The GOP really has urban Cubans voting like rural Whites at this point. Hialeah was DeSantis +57 jfc. What was Hialeah 30 years ago? I don't even think it was this lopsided during the Cold War.

[Biden his time]

The GOP really has urban Cubans voting like rural Whites at this point. Hialeah was DeSantis +57 jfc. What was Hialeah 30 years ago? I don't even think it was this lopsided during the Cold War.

It actually isn't so different to how it was at the time of the 2000 US Presidential election
In fact, the results in Hialeah, Westchester, western Miami are almost exactly the same


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The difference now is that there are more Cubans, Colombians, Venezuelans, and other Latino Americans living in Miami-Dade County and less Democratic-voting White and Black people (for instance Jews and Haitians).

Nearly every part of Miami-Dade has gotten much more Hispanic over the last two decades, except for places that were already 90%+ Hispanic such as Hialeah and Westchester (and you can see these are the few places that haven't seen much swing towards the Republicans between 2000-PRES and 2022-GOV).

Because of this, a coalition that was able to keep Miami-Dade voting for Gore in 2000 is not enough to have it vote for Crist or Demings today.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

DeSantis was so close to winning Miami proper!

[lfromnj]

Wow DeSantis easily won Doral despite the migrant stuff.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The GOP really has urban Cubans voting like rural Whites at this point. Hialeah was DeSantis +57 jfc. What was Hialeah 30 years ago? I don't even think it was this lopsided during the Cold War.

Almost starting to give me south Brooklyn vibes. It’s actually insane.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Wow DeSantis easily won Doral despite the migrant stuff.

Would've been weird if he didn't given what happened in the rest of Miami-Dade and the state.

[Biden his time]

I had about 10 paragraphs worth of analysis and numbers but they're a pain to read through and don't get to the point so I'm just gonna post this, you can trust this is what happened among ethnic groups, at least as far as we can tell through precinct results:


Between 2020 and 2022, heavily Cuban areas swung the farthest towards the GOP (by ~25%)
Followed by Other Latino Groups (~18% to ~22%)

Then Non-Hispanic White Americans (double digits)
Followed by Haitians (~5%), then Jamaicans (~3%), then Non-Caribbean African Americans (which almost had no shift towards the GOP, and in fact may even have been stronger for Demings than Biden)

Turnout collapsed however in more Democratic groups

Rubio performed slightly stronger than DeSantis among Cuban Americans (by 0% to 1%), however in Other Latino Groups he did slightly worse than DeSantis (by 1% to 2%). Among Black and Caribbean Americans DeSantis did stronger than Rubio (by approx. 3%) and among Non-Hispanic White voters DeSantis was far stronger than Rubio (by 4% reaching 6% and 7% in some places).

All the percentages used here refer to margin of victory.

All of the above is generally true all throughout both Broward and Miami-Dade

Educational polarization did not continue this election (since 2020), at least comparing various parts of Miami-Dade with similar ethnic compositions but different educational compositions with each other (inland suburbs). Not sure if this holds true for Broward.


Something of note I wanted to point out is that since the 2000 US Presidential election, when Cuban Americans (and likely other Hispanic groups) voted similarly to how they did in the 2022 Governor's race, nearly every single part of Miami-Dade voted more Republican (due to increasing Hispanic proportion of the population)

I pointed this out earlier of course, but one part of Miami-Dade has gotten significantly more Democratic since that election (and this is still visible on the current maps even with Republican swing since the 2020 and 2016 races), even though its racial and ethnic composition remains similar, and that is Downtown Miami and areas immediately surrounding that.

Even though Little Havana and the places close to this are still 90%+ Hispanic, they voted for DeSantis and Rubio in the 50% to 60% range instead of the 70% to 80% that they gave George Bush in 2000.

Some of this is gentrification, but another part of this is that areas that were once similar in composition to Hialeah are now looking more like their urban counterparts across the nation in Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, even if they remain much more Republican.

[lfromnj]

Wow really appreciate it,well done analysis.

Can you explain the difference between Westchester and Hialeah? It seems that in 2016 Westchester had a decent margin for Trump but Hialeah was tied. However since then they generally have voted the same.

[Biden his time]

Wow really appreciate it,well done analysis.

Can you explain the difference between Westchester and Hialeah? It seems that in 2016 Westchester had a decent margin for Trump but Hialeah was tied. However since then they generally have voted the same.

I'd be lying if I told you I knew for sure

However there are three interesting differences between the two places, all of which may have some role in determining why Hialeah was more pro-Clinton than Westchester and then swung harder to the Republican Party after 2016. In particular, this is more to explain the swing from 2016 to 2020 rather than the swing from 2020 to 2022 which was more similar in both places (though certain factors may apply).

Firstly, Hialeah is significantly more Cuban than Westchester. A difference of 75% vs. 65%, which may not seem like much but when it is considered that Cubans have trended more to the Republican Party than other Latino groups over the last six years, that can counterbalance other factors such as age composition which may have historically made Westchester more Republican.

Westchester also has a far higher percentage of its population with at least a bachelor's degree than Hialeah does (29% vs. 18%). While this might seem counterintuitive, it's important to consider that the trend of college-educated voters to the Democratic Party was much stronger in the 2020 election cycle than in the 2016 cycle, so that's when we can really see the flipping in terms of college-educated Cubans voting more Democratic than non-degree Cubans. Interestingly, southern Hialeah is much less college-educated than Northern Hialeah and some outlying areas such as Miami Lakes, and it can be seen that southern Hialeah both was far stronger for Clinton than northern Hialeah, and trended more to the Republican Party since then nearly reaching equal margins as the northern part by 2020 and 2022.

Probably the most important point here, and what made Westchester so much more Republican than Hialeah in the first place though has to do with age dynamics. Westchester was settled by Cubans before Hialeah was, stagnated in population at least two decades earlier than Hialeah did, and this has resulted in the residents of Hialeah being younger than those in Westchester. While the two places have similar median ages, this might be skewed by Florida International University (FIU) being in Westchester (and this group of people, not showing a large swing, really doesn't matter for our analysis). In either case, the proportion of seniors is significantly higher in Westchester than Hialeah while the proportion of children is significantly lower.

This may be the main reason Clinton was so much stronger in Hialeah than Westchester. A large age differential existed among 2016 Cuban Americans that was almost entirely eliminated in the run up to the 2020 election. According to the 2016 Cuba Poll run by FIU, Cuban Americans in the age group 76+ voted for Trump by a margin of 31% while Cuban Americans in the age group 18 - 39 voted for Clinton by a margin of 22%. In the 2020 Cuba Poll, Cuban Americans in the age group 76+ voted for Trump by a margin of 36% while those in the age group 18-39 also voted for Trump by a margin of 26%. A generational gap of 53% was cut down to only 10%, and this played a large role in Hialeah snapping back much harder than Westchester. Middle aged Cubans actually voted more strongly for Trump 2020 than seniors did, which is another difference from the pattern where Trump 2016 did better in every older generation (nearly losing Middle aged Cubans to Clinton!)

The graphs below make this dynamic more visible:


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What is clear is that a very significant change occurred in the Cuban community of Miami-Dade between 2016 and 2020, as along with the Republican shift occurred a revitalization of pro-embargo sentiment and anti-Cuban government opinions among all age groups. Among immigrants, the newest arrivals registering are also much more uniformly Republican than earlier ones (although in 2016 the newest arrivals were more likely to register as Independents or Democrats than their earlier counterparts, so this is a clear reversal):


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How long this trend continues into the future only time will tell. What we do know though is that 2022 definitely did not stop it.

[lfromnj]

Thanks,
Any other counties you plan to do this for? I assume Palm Beach right ?

[Biden his time]

Thanks,
Any other counties you plan to do this for? I assume Palm Beach right ?

No.

Sorry 🤣🤣🤣


I might do maps of the large Florida counties only, but no going into the city level or attempting to analyze.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

What is clear is that a very significant change occurred in the Cuban community of Miami-Dade between 2016 and 2020, as along with the Republican shift occurred a revitalization of pro-embargo sentiment and anti-Cuban government opinions among all age groups. Among immigrants, the newest arrivals registering are also much more uniformly Republican than earlier ones (although in 2016 the newest arrivals were more likely to register as Independents or Democrats than their earlier counterparts, so this is a clear reversal):


Image Link

How long this trend continues into the future only time will tell. What we do know though is that 2022 definitely did not stop it.

I wonder exactly what role Alex Otaola played in this. Did he single handedly R-pill millions of cubanos or was he redpilled by the same Don Giovanni Vosem Randian crystals everyone else in South Florida came under the spell of? IIRC from an article someone posted here once, he became inspired to be a R-aligned polemic sometime around 2018 but I don’t remember if it was before or after the midterm election. Wiki says his show thing started in 2017?

This is 100% correct- however, the Miami-Dade Democratic Party, the Florida Democratic Party,Biden's campaign, and Biden himself all failed in organizing, outreach, and messaging and got complacent and the right went into full disinformation/propaganda mode in the county. Spanish radio down there has a lot of Rush Limbaugh personalities as well as incredibly over the top and effective propaganda. Read this to get an insight into it: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/10/meet-the-youtube-star-whos-pushing-a-generation-of-floridas-cuban-voters-to-trump/

[Biden his time]

What is clear is that a very significant change occurred in the Cuban community of Miami-Dade between 2016 and 2020, as along with the Republican shift occurred a revitalization of pro-embargo sentiment and anti-Cuban government opinions among all age groups. Among immigrants, the newest arrivals registering are also much more uniformly Republican than earlier ones (although in 2016 the newest arrivals were more likely to register as Independents or Democrats than their earlier counterparts, so this is a clear reversal):


Image Link

How long this trend continues into the future only time will tell. What we do know though is that 2022 definitely did not stop it.

I wonder exactly what role Alex Otaola played in this. Did he single handedly R-pill millions of cubanos or was he redpilled by the same Don Giovanni Vosem Randian crystals everyone else in South Florida came under the spell of? IIRC from an article someone posted here once, he became inspired to be a R-aligned polemic sometime around 2018 but I don’t remember if it was before or after the midterm election. Wiki says his show thing started in 2017?

It definitely isn't because of one person or thing, but rather it was a confluence of factors including changes in American policy towards Cuba and the already existing sentiment. Otaola's popularity (actually I didn't know who this guy was, I had to search him up) is more of an indicator or symptom than a cause, I'd think, although perhaps in combination with others like himself it could be a cause.


Anyway, I already was going to post the links and data to the biennial Cuba polls conducted by FIU among Cuban Americans in the Miami-Dade County, here they are:

2011 Cuba poll
2014 Cuba poll
2016 Cuba poll
2018 Cuba poll
2020 Cuba poll
2022 Cuba poll

Archive


"Do you favor or oppose continuing the U.S. embargo of Cuba?"

Excluding Nonresponses

1991: 87% Favor
1993: 85% Favor
1995: 83% Favor
1997: 78% Favor
2000: 62% Favor
2004: 66% Favor
2007: 58% Favor
2008: 55% Oppose
2011: 56% Favor
2014: 52% Oppose
2016: 63% Oppose
2018: 51% Favor
2020: 60% Favor
2022: 63% Favor

Excluding nonresponses only considering age group 76+

2016: 65% Favor
2018: 73% Favor
2020: 53% Favor
2022: 56% Favor

Excluding nonresponses only considering age group 60 - 74

2016: 55% Oppose
2018: 60% Favor
2020: 61% Favor
2022: 65% Favor

Excluding nonresponses only considering age group 41 - 59

2016: 72% Oppose
2018: 52% Oppose
2020: 62% Favor
2022: 69% Favor

Excluding nonresponses only considering age group 18 - 39

2016: 72% Oppose
2018: 65% Oppose
2020: 53% Favor
2022: 55% Favor

Excluding nonresponses only considering those not registered to vote (which can be used as a gauge for the opinions of the most recent batch of immigrants who haven't had time to naturalize):

2014: 57% Oppose
2016: 76% Oppose
2018: 53% Oppose
2020: 60% Favor
2022: 72% Favor

Interestingly whereas the newest arrivals tended to be much less likely than their predecessors to support the embargo, this dynamic has flipped over the last decade and these days they are at the vanguard of those who support the embargo. As they naturalize in the future, they may impact Cuban American politics to be even more favorable of the Republican Party the same way those naturalizing circa 2016 were shifting Cuban American politics towards the Democratic Party

Moreover, middle-aged Cuban Americans also have shifted from being a transitional zone between the anti-embargo youngest Cubans and the pro-embargo oldest Cubans to now being more in favor of the embargo than any other generation. Meanwhile, the age gap has entirely disappeared comparing the youngest and oldest generations of Cuban Americans (18 - 39 and 76+).


Color scheme not intended to show bias to any position

[Hope For A New Era]

All I have to say is

[It’s so Joever]

Interesting, the real question is why have attitudes on foreign policy shifted so drastically? I am suspecting it has as much to do with Cuba itself.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

From Carlos Odio's thread on Latino voters in 2022:
https://twitter.com/carlosodio/status/1594734864376516608

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://twitter.com/Tuna306/status/1594847562770837504
https://twitter.com/Tuna306/status/1594847843130417152

It took Dems a great deal of toil & treasure to battle to a point of stability with Latino voters. Right now they should celebrate. Next week they should start putting in the work to strengthen their coalition for the ‘24 election. FL shows what happens when you don’t.

The social interweave of Latinos between Florida and the rest of the USA is way different.
In other states most Latinos are coming fleeing poverty...
Florida is a refugee camp for those who have the power and their families holding the wealth and political power on those countries that are controlling the political discurse in FL.

[MARGINS6729]

Interesting, the real question is why have attitudes on foreign policy shifted so drastically? I am suspecting it has as much to do with Cuba itself.

It's partly because things on the island have not improved since the start of the Cuban thaw although partly that was because Obama only really got two years to do it. Things continuing to be bad there, bad in Venezuela, bad in Nicaragua, and extremely volatile in Colombia and elsewhere have given Republicans the opportunity to portray themselves as the only party that cares and who state that socialism and communism are the main causes and Democrats are trying to bring that here through Bernie Sanders and the DSA. Democrats ing suck with Hispanic outreach in Florida, especially on foreign policy where some think Democrats shouldn't talk about it at all.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I strongly disagree with the view that Miami is a place where Latinos seek emigration because they are elites or middle class. While it's one of the few cities in the US that is a destination for these Latinos, it remains the top destination for Cubans fleeing Cuba, who tend to be very poor. It was once the case that recent Cuban immigrants were quite Democratic relative to their older counterparts but this reversed in 2020 - these recent immigrants were the strongest Trump supporters of all.

One reason I feel annoyed by this narrative is that Hialeah is basically a poor place, where a huge share of people are on SNAP or Medicaid. One reason Republicans bled votes there over 2000s was that Cubans are supportive of transfer programs and redistribution.

[Devils30]

Interesting, the real question is why have attitudes on foreign policy shifted so drastically? I am suspecting it has as much to do with Cuba itself.

It's partly because things on the island have not improved since the start of the Cuban thaw although partly that was because Obama only really got two years to do it. Things continuing to be bad there, bad in Venezuela, bad in Nicaragua, and extremely volatile in Colombia and elsewhere have given Republicans the opportunity to portray themselves as the only party that cares and who state that socialism and communism are the main causes and Democrats are trying to bring that here through Bernie Sanders and the DSA. Democrats ing suck with Hispanic outreach in Florida, especially on foreign policy where some think Democrats shouldn't talk about it at all.

The most interesting dynamic could happen if the Republicans ever nominate a Cuban ultra-conservative in the future. The funniest part of that would be watching them be all confused when this candidate underperforms Trump by 3.5% in rural MI, PA, WI despite cleaning up in FL and making no progress in AZ, NV.