I was wrong about the Rust Belt

[Vice President Christian Man]

While improving in WWC areas, it's increasingly unlikely that the Blue Wall will become GOP strongholds anytime soon, including in WI. I think the area will remain Dem-leaning at least in the short term and that the only reason Trump won was because Clinton was a horrific candidate who didn't inspire turnout.

[Bismarck]

Well Ohio has shifted to become a safe Republican state. I think as long as republicans can put up credible candidates these regions will continue to shift right. The big liability for the GOP here is the religious right. A lot of the WWC in the upper Midwest is socially moderate. They are turned off by the evangelical anti abortion stuff.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Well Ohio has shifted to become a safe Republican state. I think as long as republicans can put up credible candidates these regions will continue to shift right. The big liability for the GOP here is the religious right. A lot of the WWC in the upper Midwest is socially moderate. They are turned off by the evangelical anti abortion stuff.

Ohio is an interesting state and it shows that more of the country is much further left culturally than it was even 10 years ago. Ohio was usually a must-win state, often a few points behind the P.V. but not by much. As the country has gotten more progressive, Ohio more or less stagmated which is reinforced by the WWC leaving the Dem Party in droves. I think under the right conditions, a Dem could still win Ohio but it would have to be a rare breed type or the GOP candidate would have to be horrifically bad. I'm not confident that Brown is going to win in 2024 unless it's a Biden landslide but he could if a more establishment and/or Christian Right candidate turns off Eastern Ohio. In theory it's about 10 years behind Missouri or so it seems but Ohio has less of an evangelical population so the shift is likely to be slower unless you develop an East Kentucky type of situation where the voters become so fed up with the Dem Party that it doesn't matter anymore.

[jojoju1998]

Well Ohio has shifted to become a safe Republican state. I think as long as republicans can put up credible candidates these regions will continue to shift right. The big liability for the GOP here is the religious right. A lot of the WWC in the upper Midwest is socially moderate. They are turned off by the evangelical anti abortion stuff.

Ohio has always been more Republican leaning though. Even in FDR's 1932 landslide, he only won Ohio by two points.

[clever but short]

There's a pretty clear split forming between on the one hand, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Michigan, and on the other hand, Ohio and Iowa, with Wisconsin in between. Lumping them all together has always been fairly inaccurate.

[Pericles]

The non-college educated white voters there have a lot of potential to go Republican and give them regional dominance, but potential opportunities can be lost. Republicans need someone presidential who isn't obsessed with the evangelical agenda and doesn't come across as a normal trickle-down Republican on economic issues.

[It’s so Joever]

There's a pretty clear split forming between on the one hand, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Michigan, and on the other hand, Ohio and Iowa, with Wisconsin in between. Lumping them all together has always been fairly inaccurate.

Minnesota yes. Meanwhile whatever Ds lose in West PA can be made up with SEPA and cutting margins in Lancaster/York. Michigan/Wisconsin easily could go the way of Ohio. In Wisconsin’s case, there is a lot of room for Ds to gain in WOW, Fox Valley, and Dane (population boom) but it still will be an uphill battle. For Michigan it’s far less clear, there is room to grow in Grand Rapids area…but past that it get tricky.

[Roll Roons]

There's a pretty clear split forming between on the one hand, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Michigan, and on the other hand, Ohio and Iowa, with Wisconsin in between. Lumping them all together has always been fairly inaccurate.

Minnesota yes. Meanwhile whatever Ds lose in West PA can be made up with SEPA and cutting margins in Lancaster/York. Michigan/Wisconsin easily could go the way of Ohio. In Wisconsin’s case, there is a lot of room for Ds to gain in WOW, Fox Valley, and Dane (population boom) but it still will be an uphill battle. For Michigan it’s far less clear, there is room to grow in Grand Rapids area…but past that it get tricky.

What helps Dems in Michigan is that the MIGOP is basically the Republican equivalent to the Florida Dems. Trump's narrow victory notwithstanding, it is very clearly a Democratic-leaning state.

[Bismarck]

Well Ohio has shifted to become a safe Republican state. I think as long as republicans can put up credible candidates these regions will continue to shift right. The big liability for the GOP here is the religious right. A lot of the WWC in the upper Midwest is socially moderate. They are turned off by the evangelical anti abortion stuff.

Ohio has always been more Republican leaning though. Even in FDR's 1932 landslide, he only won Ohio by two points.

Ohio was the premier swing state for decades.

[TDAS04]

There's a pretty clear split forming between on the one hand, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Michigan, and on the other hand, Ohio and Iowa, with Wisconsin in between. Lumping them all together has always been fairly inaccurate.

Wisconsin is much closer to how MI/PA votes than OH/IA.

Minnesota is its own thing.

[Hope For A New Era]

I think we all were.