Should Democrats triage Florida? (user search)
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  Should Democrats triage Florida? (search mode)
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Question: ...
#1
Yes (D/D-leaning)
 
#2
No (D/D-leaning)
 
#3
Yes (R/R-leaning)
 
#4
No (R/R-leaning)
 
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Total Voters: 67

Author Topic: Should Democrats triage Florida?  (Read 3068 times)
Pres Mike
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Posts: 4,368
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« on: December 23, 2022, 11:34:39 PM »

A big part of the Democrats’ problem is having attitudes like this, whereas no Republican would dream of suggesting that any particular voter could not be converted to movement conservatism. (Which is why you get frequent inanities like the assumption that Larry Elder’s campaign could win California; Republicans have never written off that state, or any other one.)

The problem with triaging is that eventually you’ve triaged >50% of the electorate.
In theory, Republicans can win any of the 50 states if turnout is low enough or people are pissed at the incumbent enough. Getting 47% in New York shows that. Coming within 4 points in Oregon lol.

For Democrats, its basically impossible to win in about 20 states even if the incumbent republican was caught with a live boy or dead girl
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Pres Mike
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,368
United States


« Reply #1 on: December 25, 2022, 04:32:08 PM »

A big part of the Democrats’ problem is having attitudes like this, whereas no Republican would dream of suggesting that any particular voter could not be converted to movement conservatism. (Which is why you get frequent inanities like the assumption that Larry Elder’s campaign could win California; Republicans have never written off that state, or any other one.)

The problem with triaging is that eventually you’ve triaged >50% of the electorate.
In theory, Republicans can win any of the 50 states if turnout is low enough or people are pissed at the incumbent enough. Getting 47% in New York shows that. Coming within 4 points in Oregon lol.

For Democrats, its basically impossible to win in about 20 states even if the incumbent republican was caught with a live boy or dead girl

See: AL-SEN 2017
AL 2017 was very rare win because it was a special election. Had it been a even year, Roy Moore would have been a senator.
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