Should Democrats triage Florida?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Yes, of course.

I like the fifty-state strategy and all, but that doesn't imply dumping millions of dollars in dark red states like Florida or Wyoming.

[Ferguson97]

On the statewide level? Absolutely. We're not getting a governor or senator or electoral vote there anytime soon.

But I think they can keep trying in congressional races.

[seskoog]

I don’t think Florida should be treated as a prime swing state, but I support building party infrastructure in every state. We need a return to the 50 state strategy of the 2000s

[Schiff for Senate]

On the statewide level? Absolutely. We're not getting a governor or senator or electoral vote there anytime soon.

But I think they can keep trying in congressional races.

This - my own thoughts exactly - and not just now - this point was evident after 2018 (particularly FL-SEN 2018). Now it’s perfectly clear that any dollar spent on a statewide race in FL is a dollar wasted, a dollar much better spent (and let the record show that I was always against the Democrats/DSCC dropping a cent for Demings this year - knew it was a pointless exercise and that that it was Safe R).

Honestly, there’s just one point I slightly disagree with Ferguson: FL may still be winnable presidentially, but it’s much more likely to go red, even if we spend a lot of money there. BUT - and here I agree with him, there’s no point spending money in FL or campaigning there - it’s not worth it: 2020 showed a path to victory without FL, and it’s only really the GOP that needs FL to win, not us (similar to TX in that regard).

[Ferguson97]

On the statewide level? Absolutely. We're not getting a governor or senator or electoral vote there anytime soon.

But I think they can keep trying in congressional races.

This - my own thoughts exactly - and not just now - this point was evident after 2018 (particularly FL-SEN 2018). Now it’s perfectly clear that any dollar spent on a statewide race in FL is a dollar wasted, a dollar much better spent (and let the record show that I was always against the Democrats/DSCC dropping a cent for Demings this year - knew it was a pointless exercise and that that it was Safe R).

Honestly, there’s just one point I slightly disagree with Ferguson: FL may still be winnable presidentially, but it’s much more likely to go red, even if we spend a lot of money there. BUT - and here I agree with him, there’s no point spending money in FL or campaigning there - it’s not worth it: 2020 showed a path to victory without FL, and it’s only really the GOP that needs FL to win, not us (similar to TX in that regard).

Yeah, if Democrats are winning Florida, we're already at 300+ electoral votes and it doesn't matter.

[S019]

On the statewide level? Absolutely. We're not getting a governor or senator or electoral vote there anytime soon.

But I think they can keep trying in congressional races.

This - my own thoughts exactly - and not just now - this point was evident after 2018 (particularly FL-SEN 2018). Now it’s perfectly clear that any dollar spent on a statewide race in FL is a dollar wasted, a dollar much better spent (and let the record show that I was always against the Democrats/DSCC dropping a cent for Demings this year - knew it was a pointless exercise and that that it was Safe R).

Honestly, there’s just one point I slightly disagree with Ferguson: FL may still be winnable presidentially, but it’s much more likely to go red, even if we spend a lot of money there. BUT - and here I agree with him, there’s no point spending money in FL or campaigning there - it’s not worth it: 2020 showed a path to victory without FL, and it’s only really the GOP that needs FL to win, not us (similar to TX in that regard).

Democrats don't need Florida for the Presidency sure, but they have a very narrow path in the Senate as is (dependent on deep red seats that are very unlikely to hold), and I don't think needing 5/6 Senators in the Blue Wall is a sustainable thing long term. If Texas+North Carolina start to contribute some D Senators that'd help, but even the three red state seats flipping and each of the Blue Wall states sending one D senator would bring it down to 54-46 R, this is also still dependent on winning both Senators in Nevada (not guaranteed), needing both Senators in Minnesota (not guaranteed) and needing Maine not to trend Republican long term (not guaranteed), let's also say Alaska comes on the map. That leaves 6 currently R seats and Dems basically need like at least 2-3 of these imo (if they still keep getting lucky in the Blue Wall), but not that hard to see them need 4 or 5. Now, the current Democratic path in Florida is difficult, but rebuilding the state party so that it can build the infrastructure to make the state competitive again (Republicans managed to turn the state from a tossup to Likely R in two years) would allow Democrats to win there again and would greatly help the problem of Senate math.

[MarkD]

In 1988, Florida was the first state that the Dukakis campaign decided was unwinnable and gave up trying to compete for it. He pulled out all campaign resources from Florida.
HOWEVER, Democrats have won Florida four times since then. In fact, 2020 was the first time in decades that the Democratic nominee won the race nationwide while losing Florida. So no, I don't think they should give up on it every time from now on.

[Schiff for Senate]

On the statewide level? Absolutely. We're not getting a governor or senator or electoral vote there anytime soon.

But I think they can keep trying in congressional races.

This - my own thoughts exactly - and not just now - this point was evident after 2018 (particularly FL-SEN 2018). Now it’s perfectly clear that any dollar spent on a statewide race in FL is a dollar wasted, a dollar much better spent (and let the record show that I was always against the Democrats/DSCC dropping a cent for Demings this year - knew it was a pointless exercise and that that it was Safe R).

Honestly, there’s just one point I slightly disagree with Ferguson: FL may still be winnable presidentially, but it’s much more likely to go red, even if we spend a lot of money there. BUT - and here I agree with him, there’s no point spending money in FL or campaigning there - it’s not worth it: 2020 showed a path to victory without FL, and it’s only really the GOP that needs FL to win, not us (similar to TX in that regard).

Democrats don't need Florida for the Presidency sure, but they have a very narrow path in the Senate as is (dependent on deep red seats that are very unlikely to hold), and I don't think needing 5/6 Senators in the Blue Wall is a sustainable thing long term. If Texas+North Carolina start to contribute some D Senators that'd help, but even the three red state seats flipping and each of the Blue Wall states sending one D senator would bring it down to 54-46 R, this is also still dependent on winning both Senators in Nevada (not guaranteed), needing both Senators in Minnesota (not guaranteed) and needing Maine not to trend Republican long term (not guaranteed), let's also say Alaska comes on the map. That leaves 6 currently R seats and Dems basically need like at least 2-3 of these imo (if they still keep getting lucky in the Blue Wall), but not that hard to see them need 4 or 5. Now, the current Democratic path in Florida is difficult, but rebuilding the state party so that it can build the infrastructure to make the state competitive again (Republicans managed to turn the state from a tossup to Likely R in two years) would allow Democrats to win there again and would greatly help the problem of Senate math.

Yeah, we saw what happened in 2018. Whatever happened - Nelson got complacent, fell asleep at the wheel, whatever it was - the fact that a Democratic incumbent (who won in landslides in both 2006 and 2012), somebody who wasn't scandal-tainted or massively unpopular or anything like that, lost in 2018 (to somebody, btw, who's hardly a strong candidate), that says quite enough about how we're doing.

My fear/guess is even under the perfect circumstances - a very good national environment, a good Democratic nominee, a meh GOP nominee, all of that - FL will still go red, if narrowly. We've been disappointed in this state far too many times. And the state party is only on the decline.

So senatorially, we're screwed if we're depending on FL for the majority.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

I feel like people are being a bit premature with the "Florida is hopeless" thing. It was one election in a D midterm with popular incumbents. Lets at least wait for another election first.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I feel like people are being a bit premature with the "Florida is hopeless" thing. It was one election in a D midterm with popular incumbents. Lets at least wait for another election first.

The fact that a Trump acolyte is so popular to begin with says everything that needs to be said.

[Vosem]

A big part of the Democrats’ problem is having attitudes like this, whereas no Republican would dream of suggesting that any particular voter could not be converted to movement conservatism. (Which is why you get frequent inanities like the assumption that Larry Elder’s campaign could win California; Republicans have never written off that state, or any other one.)

The problem with triaging is that eventually you’ve triaged >50% of the electorate.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yes. Same with Iowa and Ohio, but at least there are House races and a Senate race still worth contesting in those two states in the short-term. Democrats have nothing to gain by contesting this blight on our country anymore, and it's too late for any effort to make a difference at this point.

In fact, if it's ceded to the GOP, that raises the chance that it just becomes a huge vote sink for the party and makes other states more winnable in the future. I could live with a future where Florida has 100 electoral votes eventually but where literally every other state in the union is a tossup to safe Democratic.

[Beet]

Triage? I'm convinced that the best Republican strategy would be to let the Democrats win Florida because if that happened, half the Democrats would switch to the GOP just so they could be in a different party than Florida.

[Del Tachi]

Is this a meme, at this point?

Mathematically, Florida is still quite winnable for Democrats.  Biden won 600k more votes in 2020 than DeSantis did this year, so there's a lot of untapped midterm potential being left on the table.  The key to Democratic chances moving forward is unlocking Central Florida's growing Puerto Rican and Venezuelan immigrant vote.  Democrats did very poorly with immigrants across the board in 2022.

I actually think Florida is maybe the likeliest state to flip in a Biden vs Trump rematch.  I'm unsure Trump can match his 2020 performance in Miami-Dade without covid as an issue, and he may lose votes if he burns DeSantis voters in the primary. 

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I neglected to mention in the OP in the early evening hours of Election Night that, in addition to electoral trends, Republicans have been building up a strong registration advantage that I can't see reversing any time soon barring unforeseen circumstances.

Triaging statewide races completely - especially since Scott is up in '24 and is easily the weaker senator - might not be the best idea just yet. But I think the fundamentals are still pointing to long-term GOP dominance at the state level, and with hindsight, 2018 was the first sign that Florida was no longer equally competitive.

[S019]

Is this a meme, at this point?

Mathematically, Florida is still quite winnable for Democrats.  Biden won 600k more votes in 2020 than DeSantis did this year, so there's a lot of untapped midterm potential being left on the table.  The key to Democratic chances moving forward is unlocking Central Florida's growing Puerto Rican and Venezuelan immigrant vote.  Democrats did very poorly with immigrants across the board in 2022.

I actually think Florida is maybe the likeliest state to flip in a Biden vs Trump rematch.  I'm unsure Trump can match his 2020 performance in Miami-Dade without covid as an issue, and he may lose votes if he burns DeSantis voters in the primary.  

The problem for Democrats is that they need close to Hillary numbers in Dade to win the state given how red everything else is. I don't think that's undoable, but it will require a lot of investment, which I don't think the party is putting in right now. I'm pretty confident Trump will not be the nominee, but I agree that Miami-Dade turning safely Republican is a meme. They can't give up on it for the reasons I said above but they're going to need to put in a lot of effort to win those 30 electoral votes in 2024.

[pbrower2a]

If DuceSantis is the nominee, then Democrats should triage Florida at the Presidential level. The Favorite Son effect is just too big.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If DuceSantis is the nominee, then Democrats should triage Florida at the Presidential level. The Favorite Son effect is just too big.

He is only leading by 6 and Stephanie Murphy will be huge lift for Ds if she runs we will find out next yr when D Primary not time yet like Gallego for an announcement

Triage TX if Stephanie Murphy runs no need to Donate for John Love I'f Murphy he is just a backup plan if we don't have a real choice candidate in FL but of course don't triage TX if Murphy doesnt run

[2016]

If DuceSantis is the nominee, then Democrats should triage Florida at the Presidential level. The Favorite Son effect is just too big.

He is only leading by 6 and Stephanie Murphy will be huge lift for Ds if she runs we will find out next yr when D Primary not time yet like Gallego for an announcement

Triage TX if Stephanie Murphy runs no need to Donate for John Love I'f Murphy he is just a backup plan if we don't have a real choice candidate in FL but of course don't triage TX if Murphy doesnt run

LOL, what are you talking about. Stephanie Murphy would need to win Miami-Dade County by at least 25 Points to win Statewide.

She is a Socialist like everyone else on the Democratic Side is in FL. Don't forget she is from the Orlando Area and those people don't play very well in South Florida see Demings.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

A big part of the Democrats’ problem is having attitudes like this, whereas no Republican would dream of suggesting that any particular voter could not be converted to movement conservatism. (Which is why you get frequent inanities like the assumption that Larry Elder’s campaign could win California; Republicans have never written off that state, or any other one.)

The problem with triaging is that eventually you’ve triaged >50% of the electorate.

Bingo. I don't get the mindset of Democratic partisans, honestly. They seem to be very content with the fact that younger generations are inelastic Democrats so far, women are zooming left, and non-white populations are growing, all positive trends for the Democratic Party. And yet, they're so willing to give up on winning actual races.

[Pres Mike]

A big part of the Democrats’ problem is having attitudes like this, whereas no Republican would dream of suggesting that any particular voter could not be converted to movement conservatism. (Which is why you get frequent inanities like the assumption that Larry Elder’s campaign could win California; Republicans have never written off that state, or any other one.)

The problem with triaging is that eventually you’ve triaged >50% of the electorate.

In theory, Republicans can win any of the 50 states if turnout is low enough or people are pissed at the incumbent enough. Getting 47% in New York shows that. Coming within 4 points in Oregon lol.

For Democrats, its basically impossible to win in about 20 states even if the incumbent republican was caught with a live boy or dead girl

[DaleCooper]

A big part of the Democrats’ problem is having attitudes like this, whereas no Republican would dream of suggesting that any particular voter could not be converted to movement conservatism. (Which is why you get frequent inanities like the assumption that Larry Elder’s campaign could win California; Republicans have never written off that state, or any other one.)

The problem with triaging is that eventually you’ve triaged >50% of the electorate.

I think part of the problem is that Democrats and the left more generally have bought their own bullsh-t to the point that they believe anyone who voted Republican last time is practically irredeemable. It's why you hear them talk about turnout or waiting for trends to save them way more than you ever hear about any kind of persuasion. It's like they don't want to win if it means selling out to the people they call evil. They'd rather lose and let a Republican appoint more judges than tone down some of the identity politics crap or take a mostly performative stand against illegal immigration. They don't want to win over those people.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I don't think Biden should spend a cent there but Voldemort is like Cruz in that I believe he is much weaker than Generic R. Wouldn't hurt to run somebody there

[Biden his time]

A big part of the Democrats’ problem is having attitudes like this, whereas no Republican would dream of suggesting that any particular voter could not be converted to movement conservatism. (Which is why you get frequent inanities like the assumption that Larry Elder’s campaign could win California; Republicans have never written off that state, or any other one.)

The problem with triaging is that eventually you’ve triaged >50% of the electorate.

In theory, Republicans can win any of the 50 states if turnout is low enough or people are pissed at the incumbent enough. Getting 47% in New York shows that. Coming within 4 points in Oregon lol.

For Democrats, its basically impossible to win in about 20 states even if the incumbent republican was caught with a live boy or dead girl

See: AL-SEN 2017

[Pres Mike]

A big part of the Democrats’ problem is having attitudes like this, whereas no Republican would dream of suggesting that any particular voter could not be converted to movement conservatism. (Which is why you get frequent inanities like the assumption that Larry Elder’s campaign could win California; Republicans have never written off that state, or any other one.)

The problem with triaging is that eventually you’ve triaged >50% of the electorate.

In theory, Republicans can win any of the 50 states if turnout is low enough or people are pissed at the incumbent enough. Getting 47% in New York shows that. Coming within 4 points in Oregon lol.

For Democrats, its basically impossible to win in about 20 states even if the incumbent republican was caught with a live boy or dead girl

See: AL-SEN 2017

AL 2017 was very rare win because it was a special election. Had it been a even year, Roy Moore would have been a senator.