Predict the margin in CA-GOV

[Aurelius]

60.5-39.5, Newsom wins by 21.

[Aurelius]

Anyone?

[President Johnson]

Newsom 62.5%, Dahle 37.5%.

I think Newsom will do slightly better than his almost identical showings in 2018 and 2022. I hope he can break eight million raw votes this time around.

[Skill and Chance]

Newsom by 58/42, Hispanic polling challenges will benefit Republicans this year (not enough to matter in CA  though).

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Lower than in the recall but not by as much as Skill and Chance is suggesting.

[Schiff for Senate]

Lower than in the recall but not by as much as Skill and Chance is suggesting.

So he does better or worse than 58-42?

[Schiff for Senate]

Anyway, something like 62-38%. I honestly guess something very similar to the results of the recall last year.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Once again Santa Barbara County is matching the statewide vote margin for the Gov election. Both about 62%-38%

[Schiff for Senate]

Once again Santa Barbara County is matching the statewide vote margin for the Gov election. Both about 62%-38%

Perfectly in line with my rough prediction so far, though of course the overwhelming majority of votes are still to be tabulated.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Lower than in the recall but not by as much as Skill and Chance is suggesting.

So he does better or worse than 58-42?

Better than 58-42 but worse than 2021. Seems to be playing out so far.

[Skill and Chance]

Lower than in the recall but not by as much as Skill and Chance is suggesting.

So he does better or worse than 58-42?

Better than 58-42 but worse than 2021. Seems to be playing out so far.

CA got more R with each post-election day update in the 2020 GE and the 2021 recall.  It got more D with each update in the 2018 GE.  IDK what will happen this year, but several House seats are riding on it.