NV SEN D4P Laxalt +2

[MT Treasurer]

I know this is apparently bold but I’ll reiterate this — this race won’t be even close to a 50-50 nailbiter on a good night for Republicans. If it’s this close or going down to the wire, Republicans are going to have a very bad night across the board, and we’re indeed looking at a very atypical midterm. Laxalt is not the weak candidate people have made him out to be, and he’s perfectly capable of performing at Generic R/(roughly) Lombardo levels.  

Strongly suspect that this cycle will mark the end of the "NV polling always favors Republicans" conventional wisdom. At this point, I’m not sure if there’s a single state outside the PNW where I could confidently say that polls aren’t underestimating Republican strength. If (and it is a big if) Republicans have managed to make additional/significant inroads with white/non-white working-class voters, polling will probably become even more unreliable than it already is.