Suprising County Flips of 2022 ?

[Aurelius]

I think Dahle has a shot at my own SLO county.

[Aurelius]

This might be a hot-take but I think Brazos county Swings left compared to 2020. A&M is having ridiculous population growth and the student vote is no longer reduce by covid like it was in 2020.

.   High Hispanic immigration rates from conservative backgrounds could cancel this out.  Brazos ain't just College Station.

Would that actually swing the county right ? i'm pretty sure Hispanics in texas still vote democrat even if it's less than they do nationwide.

And, furthermore, I could easily imagine some Biden-Abbott students at A&M (yes, I know that undergrads are actually a small portion of college town votes).

I don't know, those people are more likely to be faculty and Beto has run a decently strong campaign. I think he'll be getting pretty much anyone who voted for Biden voting him, don't think there will be much downballot lag.

Beto is much more radical on cultural issues than Biden, and he's not running against a fish monster in Cruz this time. He will lag.

[Aurelius]

This might be a hot-take but I think Brazos county Swings left compared to 2020. A&M is having ridiculous population growth and the student vote is no longer reduce by covid like it was in 2020.

.   High Hispanic immigration rates from conservative backgrounds could cancel this out.  Brazos ain't just College Station.

Would that actually swing the county right ? i'm pretty sure Hispanics in texas still vote democrat even if it's less than they do nationwide.

And, furthermore, I could easily imagine some Biden-Abbott students at A&M (yes, I know that undergrads are actually a small portion of college town votes).

I don't know, those people are more likely to be faculty and Beto has run a decently strong campaign. I think he'll be getting pretty much anyone who voted for Biden voting him, don't think there will be much downballot lag.

Beto is much more radical on cultural issues than Biden, and he's not running against a fish monster in Cruz this time. He will lag.

Called it.

[Aurelius]

Aside from the Florida races, ones that stand out to me are:

Washington, AR for Governor
Geary, KS for Governor
Douglas, CO for Governor
Las Animas, CO for Governor and Senate
Jackson, IL for Governor given the bloodbath everywhere else in college counties
Benzie, MI
Grand Traverse, MI
Walz easily winning but failing to retain Winona and Mower in his old congressional district
Carson City and Washoe County getting bluer despite Clark County getting redder
Tim Ryan failing to win Mahoning County, let alone Trumpbull
Shapiro keeping all of Wolf’s 2018 counties, most notably Luzerne and Beaver
Kathy Hochul holding up decently well upstate considering the slaughter on Long Island and erosion in NYC
Virginia Beach being a tie on VA-02
Tony Evers expanding his margin but losing several counties in the process compared to 2018.

Northeast Arkansas has seen some serious, almost Atlanta like shifts. I doubt it’ll come to more then a few state senate seats, but if egregious gerrymandering is avoided I could see AR-3 being competitive in the 2030 (HYPOTHETICALLY). If you look at how the district has shrunk in the last few decades from being the entirety of NE Arkansas to just the Fort Smith/Fayetteville area.

It's possible to draw 2 Biden districts in Arkansas, and to my great surprise the one in the NW is much, much easier to draw than the one in the SE. There's a lot of 60% R in Fayetteville/Rogers/Springdale that could be 50/50 in a few cycles. Of course, the rest of the state is among the fastest R trending of anywhere in the country so this won't mean anything on the state level.

Funny thing is that in the 2010 Arkansas Dem dummymander, AR-3 is the only seat they purposefully conceded to the Republicans IIRC.

[Aurelius]

Palm Beach and Osceola for sure. I was a bloomer on Florida all along and even I was expecting DeSantis to lose both of those by a decent margin.