Suprising County Flips of 2022 ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What counties generally regarded as safe has the potenial flip in an upset election results ?

[Aurelius]

I think Dahle has a shot at my own SLO county.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

This might be a hot-take but I think Brazos county Swings left compared to 2020. A&M is having ridiculous population growth and the student vote is no longer reduce by covid like it was in 2020.

[Biden his time]

Collin

[OBD]

Clackamas County, Oregon and Clatsop County, Oregon would likely flip with a plurality in the scenario of a Drazan victory.

Clackamas County is basically Titanium Tilt Drazan at this point - it has voted Republican in every gubernatorial election since 2006. If Kotek wins Clackamas it's over for Drazan. Clatsop is the most probable flip from 2018 besides possibly Deschutes, which has the potential to go the other way. If you're looking for a sleeper pick, Lincoln County flipping would be surprising, but possible if Drazan pulls out the win by a decent margin.

Personally, I'm interested in the Columbia County results. It's Betsy Johnson's home turf, and it'd be interesting to see if she could win it or pull a significantly higher share of the vote than statewide.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It would be Miami-Dade, but that's been so talked about that it wouldn't really be a surprise anymore.  For a real surprise, what about Palm Beach or Osceola?  In Georgia, it might not be totally out of the question for Kemp to flip Cobb if he wins by around 10 points statewide.  Yes, uniform swing would still have it at Abrams +4, but I suspect that Kemp will most overperform in well-off suburbs of Atlanta.

Also, if Lee really rolls here in Tennessee, I think Haywood might flip, leaving Martin with just Davidson and Shelby.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Lackawanna Co, PA for Oz in the Senate race.

[kwabbit]

It would be Miami-Dade, but that's been so talked about that it wouldn't really be a surprise anymore.  For a real surprise, what about Palm Beach or Osceola?  In Georgia, it might not be totally out of the question for Kemp to flip Cobb if he wins by around 10 points statewide.  Yes, uniform swing would still have it at Abrams +4, but I suspect that Kemp will most overperform in well-off suburbs of Atlanta.

Also, if Lee really rolls here in Tennessee, I think Haywood might flip, leaving Martin with just Davidson and Shelby.

At this point, Miami-Dade going D would be a surprise. Palm Beach and Osceola are the other possible flips, but the EV doesn't look quite so horrendous in those two counties.

[Mr. Smith]

This might be a hot-take but I think Brazos county Swings left compared to 2020. A&M is having ridiculous population growth and the student vote is no longer reduce by covid like it was in 2020.

.   High Hispanic immigration rates from conservative backgrounds could cancel this out.  Brazos ain't just College Station.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This might be a hot-take but I think Brazos county Swings left compared to 2020. A&M is having ridiculous population growth and the student vote is no longer reduce by covid like it was in 2020.

.   High Hispanic immigration rates from conservative backgrounds could cancel this out.  Brazos ain't just College Station.

And, furthermore, I could easily imagine some Biden-Abbott students at A&M (yes, I know that undergrads are actually a small portion of college town votes).

[Skill and Chance]

Hofmeister is likely to win several counties in Oklahoma.

If WA-SEN really is close, Pierce and Skagit would likely flip.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

This might be a hot-take but I think Brazos county Swings left compared to 2020. A&M is having ridiculous population growth and the student vote is no longer reduce by covid like it was in 2020.

.   High Hispanic immigration rates from conservative backgrounds could cancel this out.  Brazos ain't just College Station.

Would that actually swing the county right ? i'm pretty sure Hispanics in texas still vote democrat even if it's less than they do nationwide.

And, furthermore, I could easily imagine some Biden-Abbott students at A&M (yes, I know that undergrads are actually a small portion of college town votes).

I don't know, those people are more likely to be faculty and Beto has run a decently strong campaign. I think he'll be getting pretty much anyone who voted for Biden voting him, don't think there will be much downballot lag.

[Del Tachi]

DeSantis wins Osceola. 

[Aurelius]

This might be a hot-take but I think Brazos county Swings left compared to 2020. A&M is having ridiculous population growth and the student vote is no longer reduce by covid like it was in 2020.

.   High Hispanic immigration rates from conservative backgrounds could cancel this out.  Brazos ain't just College Station.

Would that actually swing the county right ? i'm pretty sure Hispanics in texas still vote democrat even if it's less than they do nationwide.

And, furthermore, I could easily imagine some Biden-Abbott students at A&M (yes, I know that undergrads are actually a small portion of college town votes).

I don't know, those people are more likely to be faculty and Beto has run a decently strong campaign. I think he'll be getting pretty much anyone who voted for Biden voting him, don't think there will be much downballot lag.

Beto is much more radical on cultural issues than Biden, and he's not running against a fish monster in Cruz this time. He will lag.

[Schiff for Senate]

I think Dahle has a shot at my own SLO county.

San Luis Obispo County? I doubt it, since it was No+6 in the recall last year. Dahle could definitely come closer than that this time, yes, but winning it, while not impossible, seems pretty unlikely to me, tbh. Though as a native of the county, you'd know more about its politics than I.

[Schiff for Senate]

This isn't exactly that since it's not "potential" - most of the vote is in already in the FL races - and Miami-Dade was hardly considered Safe D in the first place, but I find the results in Miami-Dade and Palm Beach Counties to be quite shocking. Miami-Dade was Clinton+29, and Biden+7, and now, it appears to have voted for Rubio and DeathSantis by double-digits (over 95% of the expected Miami-Dade vote in in both races). Palm Beach (95% of expected vote in) was Clinton+15 and Biden+13 (a rightward swing/trend, but a very modest one compared to Miami-Dade's) - now, it's gone for DeathSantis in the governor's race, and, as of now, the senate race is a total dead heat (Demings is up, but literally by just 0.1%, so the remaining 5% of votes could tip the county Republican).

[Make America Grumpy Again]

Kelly leading by 6 with >80% of the vote is surprising. I guess overturning Roe V. Wade really accelerated trends.
Hochul leading in Erie County as well but I suppose she gets a favorite daughter boost.
Fetterman leading in the Philly suburbs. I expected at least Northhampton+Chester to flip.
Mills leading in Franklin County, especially since she's losing Kennebec.

[ottermax]

Washington County voting Democrat in Arkansas seems like a surprise especially given the margin of victory for Huckabee Sanders.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

All the florida flips of the big dem counties were a suprise to me except Miami-dade.

[Alcibiades]

Lackawanna Co, PA for Oz in the Senate race.

Great shout!

[WD]

Lackawanna Co, PA for Oz in the Senate race.

Great shout!

Disgusting. When will the FRAUDS and HACKS on this site be held accountable?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

DeSantis wins Osceola. 

Well done

[Spectator]

Aside from the Florida races, ones that stand out to me are:

Washington, AR for Governor
Geary, KS for Governor
Douglas, CO for Governor
Las Animas, CO for Governor and Senate
Jackson, IL for Governor given the bloodbath everywhere else in college counties
Benzie, MI
Grand Traverse, MI
Walz easily winning but failing to retain Winona and Mower in his old congressional district
Carson City and Washoe County getting bluer despite Clark County getting redder
Tim Ryan failing to win Mahoning County, let alone Trumpbull
Shapiro keeping all of Wolf’s 2018 counties, most notably Luzerne and Beaver
Kathy Hochul holding up decently well upstate considering the slaughter on Long Island and erosion in NYC
Virginia Beach being a tie on VA-02
Tony Evers expanding his margin but losing several counties in the process compared to 2018.

[Aurelius]

This might be a hot-take but I think Brazos county Swings left compared to 2020. A&M is having ridiculous population growth and the student vote is no longer reduce by covid like it was in 2020.

.   High Hispanic immigration rates from conservative backgrounds could cancel this out.  Brazos ain't just College Station.

Would that actually swing the county right ? i'm pretty sure Hispanics in texas still vote democrat even if it's less than they do nationwide.

And, furthermore, I could easily imagine some Biden-Abbott students at A&M (yes, I know that undergrads are actually a small portion of college town votes).

I don't know, those people are more likely to be faculty and Beto has run a decently strong campaign. I think he'll be getting pretty much anyone who voted for Biden voting him, don't think there will be much downballot lag.

Beto is much more radical on cultural issues than Biden, and he's not running against a fish monster in Cruz this time. He will lag.

Called it.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Aside from the Florida races, ones that stand out to me are:

Washington, AR for Governor
Geary, KS for Governor
Douglas, CO for Governor
Las Animas, CO for Governor and Senate
Jackson, IL for Governor given the bloodbath everywhere else in college counties
Benzie, MI
Grand Traverse, MI
Walz easily winning but failing to retain Winona and Mower in his old congressional district
Carson City and Washoe County getting bluer despite Clark County getting redder
Tim Ryan failing to win Mahoning County, let alone Trumpbull
Shapiro keeping all of Wolf’s 2018 counties, most notably Luzerne and Beaver
Kathy Hochul holding up decently well upstate considering the slaughter on Long Island and erosion in NYC
Virginia Beach being a tie on VA-02
Tony Evers expanding his margin but losing several counties in the process compared to 2018.

Northeast Arkansas has seen some serious, almost Atlanta like shifts. I doubt it’ll come to more then a few state senate seats, but if egregious gerrymandering is avoided I could see AR-3 being competitive in the 2030 (HYPOTHETICALLY). If you look at how the district has shrunk in the last few decades from being the entirety of NW Arkansas to just the Fort Smith/Fayetteville area.