Suprising County Flips of 2022 ?

[VPH]

What's the matter with Geary, KS? It voted for Kelly 51-45 (to the left of the state in the gubernatorial election) despite not voting for her in 2018, yet it gave Moran and LaTurner significant majorities on the congressional side.

Geary has a large military population and has historically been pretty strong for the GOP. Chris Biggs somehow won it in the 2010 SoS race while losing by a 22% margin statewide--I think he was from nearby. Other than that, Kelly is the first to carry it since 2010.

I have no idea but my theory is some spillover of Manhattan suburbs?

[VPH]

What's the matter with Geary, KS? It voted for Kelly 51-45 (to the left of the state in the gubernatorial election) despite not voting for her in 2018, yet it gave Moran and LaTurner significant majorities on the congressional side.

Geary has a large military population and has historically been pretty strong for the GOP. Chris Biggs somehow won it in the 2010 SoS race while losing by a 22% margin statewide--I think he was from nearby. Other than that, Kelly is the first to carry it since 2010.

I have no idea but my theory is some spillover of Manhattan suburbs?

I can tell you for sure that it's not "suburban spillover" from Manhattan. Manhattan doesn't even come close to reaching the county line. Junction City and Manhattan are definitely not a MSP/Northwest Arkansas/etc situation. They're just two cities that happen to be close to each other and far from everything else.

Glad I started my comment with "I have no idea". Was the only theory that came to mind but you're right--Geary doesn't even have particularly high post-secondary degree attainment now that I look at it. It's less White than most counties but that doesn't help a ton considering historic and other-office results are so strongly GOP. And it's not like we can even chalk it up to a local effect ala 2010 or a super strong local organizing effort--nobody on the statewide ticket from Geary and Democrats left the Trump + 12 Junction City seat uncontested. Truly one of the most surprising county flips!