Write-in: it's a reversion to the mean. Obama, for whatever reason, was uniquely appealing to Hispanics, and what we're seeing now is a return to the Clinton-Bush era "norm".
I think there’s some truth to this, but i don’t totally buy it because the people who make up the Hispanic vote have changed a lot since 2004. If you do a basic (Hispanic exit poll share)*(Popular vote) calculation, the raw number of Hispanics voting in 2020 is almost double of 2004. So I think it makes sense weight the recent past a bit more than you’d do for, say, the white vote.
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