What is causing the rightward shift of Hispanic voters?

[Agonized-Statism]

It's tied up in large part with the general dealignment of the working class, but hispanics aren't a monolith and there's a lot of moving parts to the community. For some, the unique excitement over the first non-white president started dying down, and Biden has fewer ties to the community than even Clinton did. Conversely, some might have been swept up in the racism against Obama. Tejanos in particular liked the rising anti-immigration rhetoric in the 2010s. Others still might have been disaffected with the relative deemphasizing on Democrats' part of the rights of migrants and the community as a whole since about 2018.

Particularly with Mexican-Americans in states with a big tourism and hospitality industry, there was a strong reaction from small business owners and service sector workers to COVID shutdown measures. There's also been a lot of outreach since 2012 to Cuban-Americans and probably a positive reaction to Trump's ending of the Cuban Thaw. It's hard to notice outside of Florida, but economic crisis resulting from declining oil prices since 2008 brought a huge number of middle- and lower-class Venezuelans in addition to the influential anti-communist upper class that came earlier- speaking of oil, there are a lot of hispanics in industries reacting more and more to rising environmentalism.

Finally, post-first generation Hispanics are assimilating increasingly into white America, while their identities like everyone else's are being complicated with mixed-race heritage on top of the existing hispanic background more common than ever. An increasing number of hispanics are becoming Protestant, but Catholics too are going more Republican. I expect all these divisions to be recognized and exploited more as hispanics grow within the electorate, especially since they're in the swing states that will really matter to both parties, namely Texas.