KY Amendment 2 discussion thread

[oldkyhome]

Looks like No wins by 1-2% here at this point, but I think there's interesting parallels with the county map here and KY-Gov 2019. No is outperforming Beshear 2019 in almost all the counties he won, but on that same token Yes is outperforming Bevin 2019 in almost every county he won. There's an interesting cultural divide here that's been exacerbated by this issue.

What makes these trends all the more noticeable is the Amendment 1 map. Much stronger presence for No in Eastern KY, while Yes gets much closer in counties like Jefferson, Warren, and up in the Cincy suburbs.

For instance:
Magofin County (rural Eastern Kentucky)-
Yes: 63%
No: 37%

Beshear: 54%
Bevin: 44%

Campbell County (Northern KY Cincy suburbs)-
Yes: 43%
No: 57%

Beshear: 52%
Bevin: 46%

With all Jefferson and Campbell precincts in, I expect Amendment 1 to fail by 6-7% and Amendment 2 to fail by 3-4%.

[ReallySuper]

The major No campaign organization (Protect Kentucky Access) has asserted victory. No leads Yes by 71,000 votes with 85% reporting.

Is there a county map of this somewhere?

Yeah, the NYT has probably the best one: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-kentucky-constitutional-amendment-2-no-right-to-abortion.html. USA Today has one as well: https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/race/2022-11-08-ballot_initiative-KY-18878/

[ReallySuper]

The AP has officially called the race for No. Apparently ABC News called the race first just after midnight when PKA declared victory.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

An indicator that rural areas may be trending left and urban areas may be trending right: This amendment won Boone County but lost Carroll County.

[Alben Barkley]

One more thing to say about this race: I like to think Loretta Lynn, Kentucky native who famously wrote and sung "The Pill" about women's reproductive freedom, is smiling down on this result.

[ReallySuper]

precinct map bc why not https://davesredistricting.org/join/447efb96-12fb-4165-b223-f524f8f95af8



not especially surprising--obvious urban-rural divide is obvious, who would've guessed (with generally republican but socially liberal suburbs voting no along with urban areas). the glaring central ky vs. the rest of the state divide is interesting though: every precinct in franklin, woodford, fayette, bourbon and nicholas counties voted no. even rowan county, somehow

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It lost those precincts in Alexandria???

Now I've truly seen everything.

[NOVA Green]

precinct map bc why not https://davesredistricting.org/join/447efb96-12fb-4165-b223-f524f8f95af8



not especially surprising--obvious urban-rural divide is obvious, who would've guessed (with generally republican but socially liberal suburbs voting no along with urban areas). the glaring central ky vs. the rest of the state divide is interesting though: every precinct in franklin, woodford, fayette, bourbon and nicholas counties voted no. even rowan county, somehow

Great Day to be a DEM and / or Pro Choice in KY!

When I was going to college in SW Ohio, we woke up early morning to convoy for "Clinic Defense" support in Cinci', when Operation Rescue was rolling into town back in the early '90s.

Good to see solids in the KY 'Burbs of Cinci.

I'll take the numbers from metro Louisville and Lexington, not to mention down the entire Ohio River belt...

Guns and Environmental Issues might be a bit of a losing issue for DEMs in KY right now, but pretty clear that Evangelicals on Gods and Gays aren't a total One-Dimensional Man.

Still, good to see that we are starting to see rejection of certain types of totalitarianism even within heavily Republican parts of the US in 2022.

Good listen for a one hour interview from the '60s with a German Jewish refugee from NAZI Germany, who effectively was one of the key members of the "Frankfurt School", which attempted to assess what went wrong in Germany in the rise towards National Socialism in the '20s / '30s.

[OSR stands with Israel]

How did Elliot County vote

[Tintrlvr]

How did Elliot County vote

59% Yes

Honestly less than I would have expected. There is an interesting echo of the old divide in SE Kentucky between the traditionally Democratic and traditionally Republican areas, too.

[Skill and Chance]

How did Elliot County vote

59% Yes

Honestly less than I would have expected. There is an interesting echo of the old divide in SE Kentucky between the traditionally Democratic and traditionally Republican areas, too.

IDK, my overall impression is that the amendment did "well enough" in Eastern KY (generally >60% Yes even in the ancestral Dem coalfields) but underperformed more dramatically elsewhere. 

A similar amendment passed narrowly in WV back in 2018 (you could argue it was all theoretical back then, but IDK with Kavanaugh having just been confirmed).  Interestingly, the KY pro-life amendment did better in Eastern KY than the WV amendment did in Southern WV.  There just weren't any large cities to vote it down in WV.

The Tennessee pro-life amendment back in 2014 massively underperformed in the eastern mountains but still generally passed.  The big difference from KY 2022 was that it passed in all the Nashville suburbs counties.

The 2020 Louisiana pro-life amendment was in its own world where the pro-life vote clearly exceeds the generic Republican vote.  Over 60% yes just about everywhere but downtown NOLA and Baton Rouge and over 70% in most of the rural counties.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The other difference between Kentucky and Kansas is that Republican voters in Kentucky are far more evangelical than their counterparts in Kansas.  Identical amendments (some even explicitly saying "no exceptions") passed in West Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, and Louisiana.

L

[Skill and Chance]

The other difference between Kentucky and Kansas is that Republican voters in Kentucky are far more evangelical than their counterparts in Kansas.  Identical amendments (some even explicitly saying "no exceptions") passed in West Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, and Louisiana.

L

I mean, it was quite a lot closer in Kentucky. 

[ReallySuper]

How did Elliot County vote

59% Yes

Honestly less than I would have expected. There is an interesting echo of the old divide in SE Kentucky between the traditionally Democratic and traditionally Republican areas, too.

IDK, my overall impression is that the amendment did "well enough" in Eastern KY (generally >60% Yes even in the ancestral Dem coalfields) but underperformed more dramatically elsewhere.  

A similar amendment passed narrowly in WV back in 2018 (you could argue it was all theoretical back then, but IDK with Kavanaugh having just been confirmed).  Interestingly, the KY pro-life amendment did better in Eastern KY than the WV amendment did in Southern WV.  There just weren't any large cities to vote it down in WV.

The Tennessee pro-life amendment back in 2014 massively underperformed in the eastern mountains but still generally passed.  The big difference from KY 2022 was that it passed in all the Nashville suburbs counties.

The 2020 Louisiana pro-life amendment was in its own world where the pro-life vote clearly exceeds the generic Republican vote.  Over 60% yes just about everywhere but downtown NOLA and Baton Rouge and over 70% in most of the rural counties.

Yeah, I think that's a fair analysis. oldkyhome above was making an interesting parallel to the 2019 gubernatorial race and although it's not a perfect comparison, it does show why the Yes vote lost by the margin it did: even though it overperformed Bevin by raw vote percentage in Eastern Ky., it pretty much uniformly did worse in (much more populated) Central and Northern Kentucky:

[Sestak]

Yeah, I think that's a fair analysis. oldkyhome above was making an interesting parallel to the 2019 gubernatorial race and although it's not a perfect comparison, it does show why the Yes vote lost by the margin it did: even though it overperformed Bevin by raw vote percentage in Eastern Ky., it pretty much uniformly did worse in (much more populated) Central and Northern Kentucky

On this note, a cursory, very rough county count indicates to me that the amendment failed in KY-04 (Thomas Massie's district) - by a margin that might be similar to the statewide count; notable since the seat is nominally several points to the right of the state; Beshear lost it by nearly 8. I'm less sure about the exact margin, though, since I don't know how to get district numbers in the two split counties, Carter and Nelson.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is gonna help Beshear alot

[Skill and Chance]

This is gonna help Beshear alot

This is a very interesting dynamic where, opposite of the remaining swing state R governors, Beshear owes his original election margin to people who were quite seriously pro-life despite strongly taking the opposite side of the issue.

[ReallySuper]

Yeah, I think that's a fair analysis. oldkyhome above was making an interesting parallel to the 2019 gubernatorial race and although it's not a perfect comparison, it does show why the Yes vote lost by the margin it did: even though it overperformed Bevin by raw vote percentage in Eastern Ky., it pretty much uniformly did worse in (much more populated) Central and Northern Kentucky

On this note, a cursory, very rough county count indicates to me that the amendment failed in KY-04 (Thomas Massie's district) - by a margin that might be similar to the statewide count; notable since the seat is nominally several points to the right of the state; Beshear lost it by nearly 8. I'm less sure about the exact margin, though, since I don't know how to get district numbers in the two split counties, Carter and Nelson.

Unfortunately the district isn't just split across counties but even across precincts  (why the evil Republican legislature did this to us I have no idea), but I added up the non-split precinct totals with my estimate for the split precincts and got roughly 535 Yes - 366 No votes in the part of Carter County in the 4th district and 4,437 Yes - 4,271 No votes in the Nelson County partial. So when added to the rest of the district, the margin gets slightly closer but still +3 points for No.

What I think is also interesting is the state supreme court race centered in largely the same district (minus the more eastern counties and Spencer + Nelson County). Here, the margin for No was +5 and the incumbent pro-choice Justice Michelle Keller defeated the Republican state representative who authored the trigger ban law--the one which is being challenged in the Kentucky Supreme Court right now--by ten points.

[oldkyhome]

precinct map bc why not

not especially surprising--obvious urban-rural divide is obvious, who would've guessed (with generally republican but socially liberal suburbs voting no along with urban areas). the glaring central ky vs. the rest of the state divide is interesting though: every precinct in franklin, woodford, fayette, bourbon and nicholas counties voted no. even rowan county, somehow

Is there any way I can find the precinct margins on this site?

[ReallySuper]

precinct map bc why not

not especially surprising--obvious urban-rural divide is obvious, who would've guessed (with generally republican but socially liberal suburbs voting no along with urban areas). the glaring central ky vs. the rest of the state divide is interesting though: every precinct in franklin, woodford, fayette, bourbon and nicholas counties voted no. even rowan county, somehow

Is there any way I can find the precinct margins on this site?

unfortunately not. to find precinct margins you have to go to the secretary of state website where the results are by county and then click on the "precinct results" to see them for each race. (eventually there should be an official spreadsheet for each county with all the precinct results). and then to match them with the precincts on the map you would have to match the code with the names which you can find in this spreadsheet.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1601705034039058432?s=20&t=MJtOSEo8Z8fq...

[Alben Barkley]

Kentucky is a greater state than Tennessee and West Virginia.