Given trends I highly doubt Dems do better in IA-2 than 3. Axne as a 2 term incumbent also might poll slightly better but it’s going to be close. If it’s a big red wave, she is losing by a lot. It’s amazing how few Dem swing seat incumbents are cooked at this stage. We all remember 2010, but there’s no one like Mike Coffman in 2018. And I’m not talking about redistricted Dems like Lawson.
Mike Coffman was not in a swing seat he was in a blue one. The only D incumbents facing such headwinds who were not redistricted are Golden and Peltola, if you count redistricting then it would also be O'Halleran and Lawson.
Technically Coffman's was redistricted in 2012. He just got really lucky in three cycles and then under Trump, his district zoomed towards the Democrats.
Much different from 2000s when CO-06 was centered in Douglas and Jeffco and was one of the most Republican in the state.
