IA-Selzer: Grassley +12

[Senator Cris]

53/41

https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2022/11/05/iowa-poll-senate-race-chuck-grassley-leads-mike-franken-election/69616642007/

[Senator Incitatus]

R+9 from the ballyhooed poll a few weeks ago. Interesting to note that Selzer said 1% "already voted but don’t want to tell [for whom]."

This is actually the second-best poll Grassley has gotten for the entire cycle.

Grassley lead of <5 = the Blue Wave is back baby

Grassley lead of 5-10 = GOP takes House, Senate is a toss-up

Grassley lead of 10-15 = 230+ seats in the House, 52+ seats in the Senate

Grassley lead of 15+ = start looking into emigrating if you can, Democrats will not win power on the federal level for at least the next two decades

Seems about right. (A Grassley +15 win is still very possible, but to be charitable to Lief, the post was only about the poll itself.)

[Brittain33]

There goes my hopium. I’m embracing the moderate doom.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This was KS 2014 all over again.

[Sestak]

Touch wider than I thought but this one was very predictable lmao

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Alright. Back to Safe R.

[Mr.Phips]

This was never going to be close.

[MT Treasurer]

Best guess is Grassley +13, a "surprising" and "late" shift just like in 2016 and 2020. This stunt has become very predictable.

Close enough!

Alright. Back to Safe R.

lmao this was always Safe R

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Best guess is Grassley +13, a "surprising" and "late" shift just like in 2016 and 2020. This stunt has become very predictable.

Close enough!

Alright. Back to Safe R.

lmao this was always Safe R

I moved my rating in response to the shock Selzer poll from about a month ago. Now Grassley is over 50 again, I adjusted accordingly.

[KaiserDave]

This is just about what I expected maybe a tad wider. Safe R

[Devils30]

Iowa was 12% more red than the country in 2020 and Grassley wins by huge margins. Why is anyone surprised?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Absolute embarrassment that the typical atlas user could have predicted Selzer would renege on their Grassley +3 bullsh**t.

[jamestroll]

This was KS 2014 all over again.

 No serious person was contesting this race.

[Alben Barkley]

So the last poll suggested a national environment far more Democratic than expected. This poll suggests one more about in line with what was expected. It could have been worse at least. Basically suggests the Senate is still Toss-up/Tilt R. As mentioned, Iowa was 12 points to the right of the nation in 2020, which would make this squarely a neutral year.

[It’s so Joever]

So the last poll suggested a national environment far more Democratic than expected. This poll suggests one more about in line with what was expected. It could have been worse at least. Basically suggests the Senate is still Toss-up/Tilt R. As mentioned, Iowa was 12 points to the right of the nation in 2020, which would make this squarely a neutral year.

Cope. Grassley is a flawed incumbent at this point and likely will underperform, plus IA has the most D favorable early vote. This is looking like an actual tidal wave.

[Eraserhead]

Still going to be by far his closest race since his initial election in 1980 (for whatever that's worth).

[Alben Barkley]

So the last poll suggested a national environment far more Democratic than expected. This poll suggests one more about in line with what was expected. It could have been worse at least. Basically suggests the Senate is still Toss-up/Tilt R. As mentioned, Iowa was 12 points to the right of the nation in 2020, which would make this squarely a neutral year.

Cope. Grassley is a flawed incumbent at this point and likely will underperform, plus IA has the most D favorable early vote. This is looking like an actual tidal wave.

How is this cope? I haven't been under any illusions about Dems actually winning for weeks. I've followed the evidence and the polls and the national environment as it has changed in real time. "Grassley will likely underperform" is a pretty much baseless statement (you could just as easily say "Franken is a flawed challenger") that is pure cope from you because you are now actively rooting for the fall of democracy just so you can be proven right in your eternally dooming outlook apparently. You're getting to the point of being insufferably unpleasant AND irrational, frankly, and it's damn near enough for me to put you on ignore. Give it a rest. It's one thing to doom because you hope for the best but expect the worst, but you actually relishing in this apparently is sick and bizarre.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Honestly I thought we would see something like 54-43 that indicate that the undecideds in the last poll were all leaning republican. This implies that the democrats have inexplicably lost ground

[Brittain33]

Iowa was 12% more red than the country in 2020 and Grassley wins by huge margins. Why is anyone surprised?

Because the last poll had such surprising results, maybe? People aren’t surprised so much as had a wide range of expectations from the previous SHOCK POLL.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

House polling results when?

[MT Treasurer]

Best guess is Grassley +13, a "surprising" and "late" shift just like in 2016 and 2020. This stunt has become very predictable.

Close enough!

Alright. Back to Safe R.

lmao this was always Safe R

I moved my rating in response to the shock Selzer poll from about a month ago. Now Grassley is over 50 again, I adjusted accordingly.

This honestly reads like satire. Assuming it isn’t, maybe you should reconsider your overall approach rather than just letting poll margins dictate your predictions (esp. in cases in which said polls show rosy results for your party, which is of course most of the time) without paying attention to fundamentals such as state lean/trend and state demographics.

[Mr.Phips]

So the last poll suggested a national environment far more Democratic than expected. This poll suggests one more about in line with what was expected. It could have been worse at least. Basically suggests the Senate is still Toss-up/Tilt R. As mentioned, Iowa was 12 points to the right of the nation in 2020, which would make this squarely a neutral year.

Cope. Grassley is a flawed incumbent at this point and likely will underperform, plus IA has the most D favorable early vote. This is looking like an actual tidal wave.

Lol Grassley is an institution in Iowa.

[Alben Barkley]

Honestly I thought we would see something like 54-43 that indicate that the undecideds in the last poll were all leaning republican. This implies that the democrats have inexplicably lost ground

It's not inexplicable necessarily, it fits with what we've seen across the country. Dems have clearly lost ground. "It's the economy, stupid!" and voters having the memories of goldfish would probably be why.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Best guess is Grassley +13, a "surprising" and "late" shift just like in 2016 and 2020. This stunt has become very predictable.

Close enough!

Alright. Back to Safe R.

lmao this was always Safe R

I moved my rating in response to the shock Selzer poll from about a month ago. Now Grassley is over 50 again, I adjusted accordingly.

This honestly reads like satire. Assuming it isn’t, maybe you should reconsider your overall approach rather than just letting poll margins dictate your predictions (esp. in cases in which said polls show rosy results for your party, which is of course most of the time) without paying attention to fundamentals such as state lean/trend and state demographics.

Look, fundamentals are important, but Selzer is Selzer.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

So the last poll suggested a national environment far more Democratic than expected. This poll suggests one more about in line with what was expected. It could have been worse at least. Basically suggests the Senate is still Toss-up/Tilt R. As mentioned, Iowa was 12 points to the right of the nation in 2020, which would make this squarely a neutral year.

Cope. Grassley is a flawed incumbent at this point and likely will underperform, plus IA has the most D favorable early vote. This is looking like an actual tidal wave.

Lol Grassley is an institution in Iowa.

Reynolds is going to outperform him by close to double digits.. most of his crossover support has evaporated.