IA-Selzer: Grassley +12

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Given trends I highly doubt Dems do better in IA-2 than 3. Axne as a 2 term incumbent also might poll slightly better but it’s going to be close. If it’s a big red wave, she is losing by a lot. It’s amazing how few Dem swing seat incumbents are cooked at this stage. We all remember 2010, but there’s no one like Mike Coffman in 2018. And I’m not talking about redistricted Dems like Lawson.

Mike Coffman was not in a swing seat he was in a blue one. The only D incumbents facing such headwinds who were not redistricted are Golden and Peltola, if you count redistricting then it would also be O'Halleran and Lawson.

Technically Coffman's was redistricted in 2012. He just got really lucky in three cycles and then under Trump, his district zoomed towards the Democrats.

Much different from 2000s when CO-06 was centered in Douglas and Jeffco and was one of the most Republican in the state.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Allegations that Mike Franken engaged in sexual harassment are unproven and are, if we're being honest with ourselves, at least probably untrue.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Allegations that Mike Franken engaged in sexual harassment are unproven and are, if we're being honest with ourselves, at least probably untrue.

They are almost certainly true.  He’s a predator.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Allegations that Mike Franken engaged in sexual harassment are unproven and are, if we're being honest with ourselves, at least probably untrue.

They are almost certainly true.  He’s a predator.

Yes, the evidence for this was so good that...the press didn't even run on the story, despite everything suggesting that this would be a great way for them to profit on net from doing so.
Obama insulted me in a phone call! See? I can play make-believe too!
...
This ain't it, chief.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Allegations that Mike Franken engaged in sexual harassment are unproven and are, if we're being honest with ourselves, at least probably untrue.

They are almost certainly true.  He’s a predator.

Yes, the evidence for this was so good that...the press didn't even run on the story, despite everything suggesting that this would be a great way for them to profit on net from doing so.
Obama insulted me in a phone call! See? I can play make-believe too!
...
This ain't it, chief.

Local news reported it at the time, but thanks for playing

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Allegations that Mike Franken engaged in sexual harassment are unproven and are, if we're being honest with ourselves, at least probably untrue.

They are almost certainly true.  He’s a predator.

Yes, the evidence for this was so good that...the press didn't even run on the story, despite everything suggesting that this would be a great way for them to profit on net from doing so.
Obama insulted me in a phone call! See? I can play make-believe too!
...
This ain't it, chief.

Local news reported it at the time, but thanks for playing

There's a difference between reporting on the story and running it and implying that it is legit. Show me evidence they did the latter, then I might put more credence in this allegation. Until then, ciao.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Change which was FRANKEN own internal poll stopped polling this that's why they did it no longer showed FRANKEN down 3

[Senator Incitatus]

Allegations that Mike Franken engaged in sexual harassment are unproven and are, if we're being honest with ourselves, at least probably untrue.

They are almost certainly true.  He’s a predator.

Yes, the evidence for this was so good that...the press didn't even run on the story,

It was literally reported in the same newspaper that we’re lending so much credence for this poll, and it was based on a filed police report rather than a public allegation designed to tank his campaign or reputation. The police found no foundation for a further investigation, but it’s much more credible on its face than most similar accusations we’ve seen, and you’re just making things up.

[Person Man]

This is in line with the fabled R 225-230/51-52 ripple that either sets into motion the senate being tilt R, the House being tilt D and Biden winning in 2024 or a just big enough win to get the momentum started for a reverse 2008 by either Hump or Dennis.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is in line with the fabled R 225-230/51-52 ripple that either sets into motion the senate being tilt R, the House being tilt D and Biden winning in 2024 or a just big enough win to get the momentum started for a reverse 2008 by either Hump or Dennis.

Lol would you stop Dooming until all the votes are counting

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

I await the map with interest.

[win win]

trump won Iowa by 8 only
and he is a farmer favorite.

R wave confirmed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Allegations that Mike Franken engaged in sexual harassment are unproven and are, if we're being honest with ourselves, at least probably untrue.

They are almost certainly true.  He’s a predator.

Yes, the evidence for this was so good that...the press didn't even run on the story,

It was literally reported in the same newspaper that we’re lending so much credence for this poll, and it was based on a filed police report rather than a public allegation designed to tank his campaign or reputation. The police found no foundation for a further investigation, but it’s much more credible on its face than most similar accusations we’ve seen, and you’re just making things up.

I saw this article and have heard of this police report. The police report is credible but not infallible (it might be more or less bad than as described).
The language used by many on this forum is hyperbolic and this is just way too close to prudery for me. The involved parties even were drunk, which makes a difference in a situation like this! Sorry, this is more of a nothingburger than it isn't. Not something to disendorse a candidate for. Any harm he could have arguably done, considering the level this is on (pretty mild at worst, considering the broader scheme of things), is far outweighed by the benefit of having an additional Democratic vote in the Senate.
Sorry, not sorry! I know most Democrats would rather have Roe vs Wade protected and this man in the Senate than vice versa. No matter what they claim on this "blog" (provided they post on it).
EDIT: before you ask, no, if this was a Republican I'd still be saying the same thing...policy matters more.

[Hope For A New Era]

Okay, math time

Trump won Iowa by 8.2 in 2020, in a D+4.4 national environment, making it 12.6 points to the right of the nation. In 2016, he won Iowa by 9.4 in a D+2.1 national environment, 11.5 points to the right of the nation. This is a trend right of 1.1 between 2016 and 2020.

The famous last 2020 Selzer poll was Trump +7, so let's assume it slightly underestimates the R again and say the final margin is Grassley +13 or +14.

Let's also assume that Iowa's rightward trend has continued at more or less the same rate, and that the state is currently about half a point to the right of where it was two years ago. We'd expect it then to vote about 13 points to the right of the nation.


Result: National environment should be roughly R+1.


Note that there's one key assumption underlying this: that Grassley's performance this year will correlate to the national environment. This does seem like the year for it to finally do so, rather than continuing his past huge overperformances, but there is a possibility that he may still be overperforming a little bit, which means it's possible that the national environment could be neutral or even D-leaning with Grassley still winning by 13-14. However, I view this as unlikely. I think polarization has removed most of his crossover support by this point. I'd love to be wrong on this, but I don't think I will be.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trying to construe IA with other states won't work because Shapiro and Whitmer are outpolling Biden, sorry

Biden didn't win PA by 10 pts and Shapiro is winning by 10 that's not an R plus 1 environment plse wait til the votes are counted, Thanks

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If that formula is the case Whitmer, Shapiro and Pritzker would be tied or losing since Grassley is up by 12 they're all ahead because Biden lost IA by 8 and Biden only won MI and PA by 3 and PA by 50K votes in your rational

[Unelectable Bystander]

Not sure if anybody added these but it looks like Des Moines Register added the house races. Once again they are only generic ballots and are small samples.

IA1 49-40 R
IA2 49-47 R
IA3 47-44 R
IA4 59-30 R

Overall 51-40

[Roll Roons]

Not sure if anybody added these but it looks like Des Moines Register added the house races. Once again they are only generic ballots and are small samples.

IA1 49-40 R
IA2 49-47 R
IA3 47-44 R
IA4 59-30 R

Overall 51-40

Not surprising. Geography in Iowa is actually pretty favorable for Democrats because the northwest part of the state is such a massive GOP vote sink.

[2016]

Not sure if anybody added these but it looks like Des Moines Register added the house races. Once again they are only generic ballots and are small samples.

IA1 49-40 R
IA2 49-47 R
IA3 47-44 R
IA4 59-30 R

Overall 51-40

Not surprising. Geography in Iowa is actually pretty favorable for Democrats because the northwest part of the state is such a massive GOP vote sink.

Ashley Hinson is not going to lose in this Environment and neither will be Miller-Meeks. I fall over my chair if they do.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Not sure if anybody added these but it looks like Des Moines Register added the house races. Once again they are only generic ballots and are small samples.

IA1 49-40 R
IA2 49-47 R
IA3 47-44 R
IA4 59-30 R

Overall 51-40

Not surprising. Geography in Iowa is actually pretty favorable for Democrats because the northwest part of the state is such a massive GOP vote sink.

Do you know why IA1 and even IA3 are polling so much better than IA2 for Hinson? I thought they were somewhat unchanged from the last map, with Hinson being known as the biggest “star”. Are there some kind of trends in 1 that are greater than those in 2? I wouldn’t attribute it to the sample either, since last poll had the same relationship with 1 a few points to the right of the others.

[Roll Roons]

Not sure if anybody added these but it looks like Des Moines Register added the house races. Once again they are only generic ballots and are small samples.

IA1 49-40 R
IA2 49-47 R
IA3 47-44 R
IA4 59-30 R

Overall 51-40

Not surprising. Geography in Iowa is actually pretty favorable for Democrats because the northwest part of the state is such a massive GOP vote sink.

Do you know why IA1 and even IA3 are polling so much better than IA2 for Hinson? I thought they were somewhat unchanged from the last map, with Hinson being known as the biggest “star”. Are there some kind of trends in 1 that are greater than those in 2? I wouldn’t attribute it to the sample either, since last poll had the same relationship with 1 a few points to the right of the others.

Hinson is facing a strong challenger - a local state Senator who was previously a news anchor.

[Lief 🗽]

It is absolutely incredible that there are still some people who doubt this woman. What a performance, once again. Bravo!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.kcci.com/article/brenna-bird-iowa-attorney-general/41738831
Accolades for IndyRep. He got this one right and I got this one wrong.

[Alben Barkley]

https://www.kcci.com/article/brenna-bird-iowa-attorney-general/41738831
Accolades for IndyRep. He got this one right and I got this one wrong.

A guy who thought this race would be an easy R win, along with Pennsylvania, and thought NH would be be at least closer for Rs than WI would be for Ds, because "muh fundamentals" and "muh partisan lean" and "muh actual special elections held this year don't count for anything, idiot" doesn't deserve any "accolades" because he was technically right in a coin flip race that again, he thought would be far from a coin flip.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.kcci.com/article/brenna-bird-iowa-attorney-general/41738831
Accolades for IndyRep. He got this one right and I got this one wrong.

A guy who thought this race would be an easy R win, along with Pennsylvania, and thought NH would be be at least closer for Rs than WI would be for Ds, because "muh fundamentals" and "muh partisan lean" and "muh actual special elections held this year don't count for anything, idiot" doesn't deserve any "accolades" because he was technically right in a coin flip race that again, he thought would be far from a coin flip.

You are entitled to think what you want about IndyRep. I just felt that I should keep to my word and do what I already said I would do.