IA-Selzer: Grassley +12

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Iowans are stupid and even Trump said as much.

[Brittain33]

House polling results when?

Monday

[MT Treasurer]

Look, fundamentals are important, but Selzer is Selzer.

"Look, fundamentals are important, but prestigious authority figures are prestigious authority figures. Who needs critical thinking when Nate Silver, Ann Selzer, and Jon Ralston can do the thinking for me?"

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yawn.  Safe R -> Safe R

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Look, fundamentals are important, but Selzer is Selzer.

"Look, fundamentals are important, but prestigious authority figures are prestigious authority figures. Who needs critical thinking when Nate Silver, Ann Selzer, and Jon Ralston can do the thinking for me?"

I trust Selzer over my priors about how a race is going to go. Maybe that was unwise. I have a history of overestimating more often than underestimating Ds here. I had Iowa as a Clinton state and expected Biden to make it closer. I in fact was among those who doubted her last poll in 2020, only for it to blow up in my face. I learned my lesson then...
Your "prestigious authority figures" line is just hamfisted. I do not place absolute trust in the likes of Ralston or Silver, actually...I think Ralston might be underestimating the importance of changes to the NV voting regime this time around, but that's the topic for another thread.

[Tekken_Guy]

Honestly I thought we would see something like 54-43 that indicate that the undecideds in the last poll were all leaning republican. This implies that the democrats have inexplicably lost ground

It's not inexplicable necessarily, it fits with what we've seen across the country. Dems have clearly lost ground. "It's the economy, stupid!" and voters having the memories of goldfish would probably be why.

The economy really is no worse now than it was during the last poll.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Still drastically worse than any race Grassley has run since the 1980. Never *really* believed this state would be close.

That being said, very discouraging sign for Dems nationally relative to the last Selzer poll here.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Honestly I thought we would see something like 54-43 that indicate that the undecideds in the last poll were all leaning republican. This implies that the democrats have inexplicably lost ground

It's not inexplicable necessarily, it fits with what we've seen across the country. Dems have clearly lost ground. "It's the economy, stupid!" and voters having the memories of goldfish would probably be why.

I agree with you on both accounts. I do think democrats have lost ground nationally for some reason. I also think, as democrats would argue, the economy has not really worsened. It’s really quite confusing

[MT Treasurer]

I trust Selzer over my priors about how a race is going to go. Maybe that was unwise. I have a history of overestimating more often than underestimating Ds here. I had Iowa as a Clinton state and expected Biden to make it closer. I in fact was among those who doubted her last poll in 2020, only for it to blow up in my face. I learned my lesson then...

The lesson you learned: Selzer is infallible. (a. Authority figure is even more prestigious and worthy of respect than I thought. b. Iowa's political lean is whatever that authority figure projects it is.)

The lesson you should have learned: One gold standard after another is going out of business, and while Selzer was relatively accurate in 2020, her approach isn’t immune to the same party coalition & societal changes which have made reliable polling an increasingly difficult and near-impossible endeavor. (I will keep an eye on her polls, but I won’t let them dictate my prediction — no polling is infallible, and polls are only one of many indicators to consider.)

Your "prestigious authority figures" line is just hamfisted. I do not place absolute trust in the likes of Ralston or Silver, actually...I think Ralston might be underestimating the importance of changes to the NV voting regime this time around, but that's the topic for another thread.

I’ve just noticed that this obsessive need to defer to and blindly trust 'established' and 'respectable' authorities of any kind is a very big problem on your side of the aisle, and it’s one the right doesn’t have, or certainly not to this extent. You (I mean "you" as a collective) have invested all these conventional models, traditional indicators (polls, special elections, etc.), and respected pundits/pollsters with so much authority that you’re no longer able to think independently. That is a big problem in any situation, but it’s particularly unhelpful when you’re trying to predict the outcome of an election, since the indicators you and the respected sources are relying on are increasingly flawed.

Am I going to predict Murray +1 and Welch +7 just because that’s what Trafalgar released? No. Do I care that some on the right consider Trafalgar a gold standard? No.

[Aurelius]

So the last poll suggested a national environment far more Democratic than expected. This poll suggests one more about in line with what was expected. It could have been worse at least. Basically suggests the Senate is still Toss-up/Tilt R. As mentioned, Iowa was 12 points to the right of the nation in 2020, which would make this squarely a neutral year.

Cope. Grassley is a flawed incumbent at this point and likely will underperform, plus IA has the most D favorable early vote. This is looking like an actual tidal wave.

Lol Grassley is an institution in Iowa.

He's also a fossil. Feinstein is the same age and she nearly lost to a nobody a few years ago.

[S019]

People need to remember that Selzer is good because of her final poll, her other polls are not really that great and everyone should've known better than to believe Grassley+3. Grassley will obviously win, but this is a pretty underwhelming margin considering it's Iowa in a Republican leaning year.

[Aurelius]

Honestly I thought we would see something like 54-43 that indicate that the undecideds in the last poll were all leaning republican. This implies that the democrats have inexplicably lost ground

It's not inexplicable necessarily, it fits with what we've seen across the country. Dems have clearly lost ground. "It's the economy, stupid!" and voters having the memories of goldfish would probably be why.

The economy really is no worse now than it was during the last poll.

Not if you're in the tech industry. The nasdaq is crashing hard, and lots of big companies are announcing layoffs and hiring freezes.

[wbrocks67]

So essentially it's best to just ignore every second to last selzer poll each time. She now has this pattern twice of having the second to last poll somehow miraculously good for Democrats and then the last poll suddenly becomes more realistic.

[2016]

Alben Barkley is so funny,
This won't be a neutral year. If it were Democrats would win North Carolina and Ohio and they ain't.

And forget Senate Races like IA, FL, OH, NC, WI. We only have 4 True Toss Up Races AZ, NV, GA and PA and Republicans heading into this weekend and into E-Day will likely win 3 out of 4.

Plus the fact that the most accurate Pollster in New Hampshire has Bolduc vs Hassan tied and FOX NEWS has moved the Race to Toss Up tells me that this year will more likely than not a 2014 type Election.

[izixs]

Honestly I thought we would see something like 54-43 that indicate that the undecideds in the last poll were all leaning republican. This implies that the democrats have inexplicably lost ground

It's not inexplicable necessarily, it fits with what we've seen across the country. Dems have clearly lost ground. "It's the economy, stupid!" and voters having the memories of goldfish would probably be why.

The economy really is no worse now than it was during the last poll.

Not if you're in the tech industry. The nasdaq is crashing hard, and lots of big companies are announcing layoffs and hiring freezes.

Ah yes, the tech industry, the biggest industry in silicon corn field.

(Note, I grew up in Iowa. I get to be silly like that. :-p )

[Aurelius]

Honestly I thought we would see something like 54-43 that indicate that the undecideds in the last poll were all leaning republican. This implies that the democrats have inexplicably lost ground

It's not inexplicable necessarily, it fits with what we've seen across the country. Dems have clearly lost ground. "It's the economy, stupid!" and voters having the memories of goldfish would probably be why.

The economy really is no worse now than it was during the last poll.

Not if you're in the tech industry. The nasdaq is crashing hard, and lots of big companies are announcing layoffs and hiring freezes.

Ah yes, the tech industry, the biggest industry in silicon corn field.

(Note, I grew up in Iowa. I get to be silly like that. :-p )

Lol, fair.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Look, fundamentals are important, but Selzer is Selzer.

"Look, fundamentals are important, but prestigious authority figures are prestigious authority figures. Who needs critical thinking when Nate Silver, Ann Selzer, and Jon Ralston can do the thinking for me?"

One of those three is not like the others...

[GALeftist]

Word is that Selzer found a GCB of R+11 in Iowa, which implies a roughly even GCB nationally...

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Word is that Selzer found a GCB of R+11 in Iowa, which implies a roughly even GCB nationally...

Explain!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This wasn't going to be the year that his 64 years in elected offices ended.

[GALeftist]

Word is that Selzer found a GCB of R+11 in Iowa, which implies a roughly even GCB nationally...

Explain!

That's just my guess (also these people on Twitter while generally reliable could be wrong), but Iowa was 12.5 points right of the nation on the presidential level and 9 points right of the nation in terms of GCB in 2020 if memory serves. My guess is that with fewer D incumbents it will be about 11 points right of the nation in terms of GCB in 2022.

[S019]

Word is that Selzer found a GCB of R+11 in Iowa, which implies a roughly even GCB nationally...

https://twitter.com/un_a_valeable/status/1589071373074190336

Generic Ballot is one page above this

[Devils30]

Given trends I highly doubt Dems do better in IA-2 than 3. Axne as a 2 term incumbent also might poll slightly better but it’s going to be close. If it’s a big red wave, she is losing by a lot. It’s amazing how few Dem swing seat incumbents are cooked at this stage. We all remember 2010, but there’s no one like Mike Coffman in 2018. And I’m not talking about redistricted Dems like Lawson.

[S019]

Given trends I highly doubt Dems do better in IA-2 than 3. Axne as a 2 term incumbent also might poll slightly better but it’s going to be close. If it’s a big red wave, she is losing by a lot. It’s amazing how few Dem swing seat incumbents are cooked at this stage. We all remember 2010, but there’s no one like Mike Coffman in 2018. And I’m not talking about redistricted Dems like Lawson.

Mike Coffman was not in a swing seat he was in a blue one. The only D incumbents facing such headwinds who were not redistricted are Golden and Peltola, if you count redistricting then it would also be O'Halleran and Lawson.

[Pericles]

So the last poll suggested a national environment far more Democratic than expected. This poll suggests one more about in line with what was expected. It could have been worse at least. Basically suggests the Senate is still Toss-up/Tilt R. As mentioned, Iowa was 12 points to the right of the nation in 2020, which would make this squarely a neutral year.

Cope. Grassley is a flawed incumbent at this point and likely will underperform, plus IA has the most D favorable early vote. This is looking like an actual tidal wave.

He's an institution running against a sexual harraser, this could mean anything.