WI Sen - Trafalgar - Johnson +2.7

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1589006805971374081?t=dtFDjAO7F2WD3Kfhzp...

[Eraserhead]

Wow, Barnes might really be in this...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Wow, Barnes might really be in this...

Ehh, no.

It's going to be within 5.. but more or less guaranteed Johnson will be re-elected in regards to probability.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Best pollster in the country has spoken folks - WI is a tossup with margin of error.

[2016]

Wow, Barnes might really be in this...

Ehh, no.

It's going to be within 5.. but more or less guaranteed Johnson will be re-elected in regards to probability.

My Theory is that Johnson will carry Michaels over the line.

[2016]

Best pollster in the country has spoken folks - WI is a tossup with margin of error.

Trafalgar is basically matching the Numbers we saw from Marquette on Wednesday. Almost essential the same Numbers.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Wow, Barnes might really be in this...

Ehh, no.

It's going to be within 5.. but more or less guaranteed Johnson will be re-elected in regards to probability.

My Theory is that Johnson will carry Michaels over the line.

Michels is only underperforming Johnson by a point in this sample, so yeah.. he should carry Michels if he wins by around 2-3.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah this is gonna barn burner Barnes is gonna win

[S019]

Trafalgar clearly fudges their polls and this one was definitely put out to save their rating.

[Hope For A New Era]

i'm so tired of riding the pollercoaster. i want to get off the ride now

[MT Treasurer]

Wow, Barnes might really be in this...

Is this the nuanced, deliberate, and level-headed approach I was supposed to take heed of?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Barnes is 2 pts behind in Trafalgar this is an Even race

[Senator Incitatus]

Trafalgar and RCP both have this race closer than other outlets, which confirms they are Democratic hacks.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trafalgar and RCP both have this race closer than other outlets, which confirms they are Democratic hacks.

BIDEN WON WI it's a 303 Map

[Devils30]

Trafalgar and RCP both have this race closer than other outlets, which confirms they are Democratic hacks.

It’s nothing more than Trafalgar trying to get an accurate result to offset the 17 point misses elsewhere.

[Eraserhead]

Wow, Barnes might really be in this...

Is this the nuanced, deliberate, and level-headed approach I was supposed to take heed of?

I should think so unless you care to explain how this Republican poll (which is essentially showing the same thing as Marquette and others) doesn't indicate a highly competitive race? 🤔

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

This is the latest in a sequence of very close polls in Wisconsin, and this one from a highly R-biases source, all pointing to a toss-up race.

I'm getting the sense that the way things are shaping up Dems might do better than expected in the Midwest due to abortion, but worse than expected in the Sun Belt due to their neglect of Latinos.

[Unelectable Bystander]

There seems to be two different opinions of Trafalgar that depend on the result.

Option 1: They produce a shocking result that would be catastrophic for democrats even if it was wrong by 1-2 standard errors (like Smiley winning in Washington). In these cases, Trafalgar entirely makes up their numbers and should be discounted.

Option 2: They produce a “mainstream” or even left of consensus result. In these cases, they are a pollster with amazing precision and consistency, but simply a R bias, so we are able to shift the results a few points to the left and have it be a net positive for Dems.


Quite personally I would not be surprised if they take honest polls with a unique methodology and for some reason it just works better in the Midwest. I would also not be surprised if they do have “fudging” and they get results like these where there is some confidence in the final result, in order to protect their rating. Either way, any “poll” with Johnson at 51% does not make him any less of a favorite lol.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is MOE Barnes stands a chance you can't always go by early voting with Rs and Ds there are ticket splitting, but since Trafalgar has been undercutting Ds Barnes is gonna win it's a 51D Sen and GA is going to a Runoff

You can't go always by Early voting and Polls we won AK and NY 19 where Rs were supposed to win with Biden at 44%I keep saying this

[Eraserhead]

There seems to be two different opinions of Trafalgar that depend on the result.

Option 1: They produce a shocking result that would be catastrophic for democrats even if it was wrong by 1-2 standard errors (like Smiley winning in Washington). In these cases, Trafalgar entirely makes up their numbers and should be discounted.

Option 2: They produce a “mainstream” or even left of consensus result. In these cases, they are a pollster with amazing precision and consistency, but simply a R bias, so we are able to shift the results a few points to the left and have it be a net positive for Dems.


Quite personally I would not be surprised if they take honest polls with a unique methodology and for some reason it just works better in the Midwest. I would also not be surprised if they do have “fudging” and they get results like these where there is some confidence in the final result, in order to protect their rating. Either way, any “poll” with Johnson at 51% does not make him any less of a favorite lol.

He's only at 50% here (same as Marquette).

I certainly don't think anyone is saying he isn't the favorite (I'm not anyway) but the race does appear to be quite close.

[TheTide]

Maybe this is just an attempt to make themselves seem reasonable.

[Orwell]

I don't believe in Barnes really, and Trafalgar showing a race at this margin seems fair. Wisconsin has been fairly consistent in Johnson defeating a strong Democratic incumbent who beat Tim Michaels by 11% in 2004, and was able to perform 45 in 2016. I think he overperforms the Trafalgar poll.

[win win]

whenever I think WI I think the Wapo poll that had Clinton +18 the night before the 2016 election

[TodayJunior]

Looks about right if GCB = R +2.5. Wisconsin remains at the national average.

[President Johnson]

Given this is Trafalgar, you could argue Barnes still has a shot. However, I think this poll may be very accurate with regard to the margin. I honestly fail to see Barnes unseating RoJo. He got lucky three times in a row.