RRH/Wick: Ties in OR-04 and VA-07, Sykes +2 in OH-13

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May 30, 2024, 01:34:33 AM
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  RRH/Wick: Ties in OR-04 and VA-07, Sykes +2 in OH-13
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Author Topic: RRH/Wick: Ties in OR-04 and VA-07, Sykes +2 in OH-13  (Read 1053 times)
Junior Chimp
Posts: 7,275
United States

Political Matrix
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« Reply #25 on: November 05, 2022, 10:22:33 PM »

RRH has a statistically unlikely good record with their House polls, including for special elections this past cycle, so I would very much take these at face value.

And I think that they’re…pretty good for Democrats, honestly? That OH-13 result suggests a narrowly Democratic GCB, and while the other two polls are very bad in terms of swing, neither show the Republicans *winning*. This is what things would look like if Democrats were successfully sandbagging. (Also, it should be noted that Vega and Skarlatos — a local elected official and a local decorated veteran — are very much the kind of people that might’ve been nominated pre-Trump, while MGG — a local beauty queen — is very much not. The two ways her underperformance could be read, as either an underperformance for Republican celebrities or an underperformance in the Midwest, both bode sort of ill for the Senate.)

I think we will find that R's are clearly winning nationwide, but their vote distribution will be the most inefficient in recent history (big improvements in VRA seats and city centers vs. the Trump and Obama elections, little improvement in marginal suburban seats).
The House could be more winnable for dems in 2024 if that's the case
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