RRH/Wick: Ties in OR-04 and VA-07, Sykes +2 in OH-13

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1588939428336406528?cxt=HHwWgMDUubr_hY0s...

[Minnesota Mike]

This is not what a red wave looks like.

RRH has a pretty decent record on their polls and while it is a partisan site the crew that runs it doesn't let their partisan leanings interfere with there analysis. Some of the people who post there on the other hand....

[KaiserDave]

This paints such a confusing picture.

[Brittain33]

From RRH, that is an encouraging result for Dems.

[RI]

At the risk of overprojecting, these polls suggest Vance +6 in Ohio and Kotek +4 in Oregon.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH 1/13 with Ds leading proves Ryan isn't down 10 pts the Emerson poll LIED

[AncestralDemocrat.]

This is not what a red wave looks like.

RRH has a pretty decent record on their polls and while it is a partisan site the crew that runs it doesn't let their partisan leanings interfere with there analysis. Some of the people who post there on the other hand....

A Biden +13 and a Biden +7 district being tossups doesn't suggest a wave ?

[Nyvin]

OR-4 is almost exactly the kind of place Democrats should be doing great in.  The white, upscale, educated places that have been holding steading or improving from 2020.   

[Devils30]

I wonder if the OR-4, CT-5, RI-2 will be Election Day GOP flameouts.

VA-7 being close wouldn’t be great for VA-2. OTOH, I had OH-13 as gone for Dems

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

VA-7: Lean D -> Lean D
OR-4: Likely D -> Lean D (bordering on Likely D)
OH-13: Tilt R -> Tilt R (but confirms my suspicion that Gesiotto is a bad candidate who has run a mediocre-to-poor campaign)

OH-13 (PVI R+1): The poll found Tim Ryan leading 50% to 42% in OH-13, the OH-13 sample was Biden +6. 

OR-4 (PVI D+4): In OR-4, they have Drazen ahead 45-42-8 with a Biden +9 sample.

VA-7 (PVI D+1): In VA-7, they have a Trump +3 sample (so I’d definitely take the results for this race with a grain of salt)

Note: These were conducted by Wick (R).  Then again, RRH polls have had a decent record so make of it what you will.

[Vosem]

RRH has a statistically unlikely good record with their House polls, including for special elections this past cycle, so I would very much take these at face value.

And I think that they’re…pretty good for Democrats, honestly? That OH-13 result suggests a narrowly Democratic GCB, and while the other two polls are very bad in terms of swing, neither show the Republicans *winning*. This is what things would look like if Democrats were successfully sandbagging. (Also, it should be noted that Vega and Skarlatos — a local elected official and a local decorated veteran — are very much the kind of people that might’ve been nominated pre-Trump, while MGG — a local beauty queen — is very much not. The two ways her underperformance could be read, as either an underperformance for Republican celebrities or an underperformance in the Midwest, both bode sort of ill for the Senate.)

[Skill and Chance]

RRH has a statistically unlikely good record with their House polls, including for special elections this past cycle, so I would very much take these at face value.

And I think that they’re…pretty good for Democrats, honestly? That OH-13 result suggests a narrowly Democratic GCB, and while the other two polls are very bad in terms of swing, neither show the Republicans *winning*. This is what things would look like if Democrats were successfully sandbagging. (Also, it should be noted that Vega and Skarlatos — a local elected official and a local decorated veteran — are very much the kind of people that might’ve been nominated pre-Trump, while MGG — a local beauty queen — is very much not. The two ways her underperformance could be read, as either an underperformance for Republican celebrities or an underperformance in the Midwest, both bode sort of ill for the Senate.)

I think we will find that R's are clearly winning nationwide, but their vote distribution will be the most inefficient in recent history (big improvements in VRA seats and city centers vs. the Trump and Obama elections, little improvement in marginal suburban seats).

[Mr.Phips]

OR-04 should not be anything close to a tie.  That district has an inflexible Dem base in Eugene, unlike OR-05 and OR-06.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

OR-04 should not be anything close to a tie.  That district has an inflexible Dem base in Eugene, unlike OR-05 and OR-06.

OR-6 contains a lot of PDX inner suburbia, it shouldn’t go R either barring an R wave.

[Aurelius]

OR-4 is almost exactly the kind of place Democrats should be doing great in.  The white, upscale, educated places that have been holding steading or improving from 2020.   

OR-4 also contains a lot of downscale WWC areas along the coast as a counterbalance.

[GALeftist]

I have always thought that the perception of OH-13 as Likely R was pretty dumb, especially with a good D candidate in a cycle when the Ohio Democrats are actually trying.

[Nyvin]

OR-4 is almost exactly the kind of place Democrats should be doing great in.  The white, upscale, educated places that have been holding steading or improving from 2020.   

OR-4 also contains a lot of downscale WWC areas along the coast as a counterbalance.

That's a very small portion of the district though.  Lincoln county only has 50k people, the southern coastal part of OR-4 is heavily R anyway.

Republicans have a strong base in the district in the south, but it shouldn't be enough to overcome the solid D parts in Eugene and Corvallis.

[Eraserhead]

The results of various individual house polls have not really matched up with the GCB, so I guess we'll just have to see what happens!

[kwabbit]

OR-4 is almost exactly the kind of place Democrats should be doing great in.  The white, upscale, educated places that have been holding steading or improving from 2020.   

It's not upscale. It's half WWC coastal towns and half college towns, so there's definitely room for Dem erosure. Skarlatos is also a good recruit. He did quite respectably against DeFazio, who has owned the district for 30+ years.

[Senator Incitatus]

erosure

[jamestroll]

Anyone else here worried about violence and riots between Spanberger and Vega supporters next week?

[Gracile]

A strange set of results as the surface-level (not accounting for MoE, etc.) margin in these districts suggests slightly different midterm environments. I think the OH-13 poll is probably the one that is most off of these, given Ohio polling's problem with underestimating GOP support.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

A strange set of results as the surface-level (not accounting for MoE, etc.) margin in these districts suggests slightly different midterm environments. I think the OH-13 poll is probably the one that is most off of these, given Ohio polling's problem with underestimating GOP support.

VA-7 is almost certainly off given that it’s a Trump +3 sample in a D+1 district that Biden won pretty comfortably.

[wbrocks67]

What House polls at this point have shown there to be a red wave? They could all be wrong, sure, but it is quite interesting how nearly every single nonpartisan one shows a pretty neutral year.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

OR-4 is almost exactly the kind of place Democrats should be doing great in.  The white, upscale, educated places that have been holding steading or improving from 2020.  

Someone hasn't paid attention to what's been happening in Oregon!

Edit: I honestly can't keep track of which CD is which. OR-4 is a working class district. If Democrats hold onto it given the insane gun control measure on the ballot, it would be a miracle.