OR-Emerson: Kotek +5

[AnOdyssey]

How come Gordon Smith didn't endorse Drazan? I thought he was one of the bigger named Republicans from Oregon?

Only reassurance I can see is that Larry Hogan and Christie endorsed Drazan. Yeah, Drazan might not be MAGA for now, but whos telling when the Dem Nominee wins Oregon by +15 points and Drazan just says "Oh, nah, I am going to send alternate electors for Trump." in 2024.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How come Slade Gordon didn't endorse Drazan? I thought he was one of the bigger named Republicans from Oregon?

Only reassurance I can see is that Larry Hogan and Christie endorsed Drazan. Yeah, Drazan might not be MAGA for now, but whos telling when the Dem Nominee wins Oregon by +15 points and Drazan just says "Oh, nah, I am going to send alternate electors for Trump." in 2024.

Slade Gorton is a Republican politician from Washington, not Oregon.

[AnOdyssey]

How come Slade Gordon didn't endorse Drazan? I thought he was one of the bigger named Republicans from Oregon?

Only reassurance I can see is that Larry Hogan and Christie endorsed Drazan. Yeah, Drazan might not be MAGA for now, but whos telling when the Dem Nominee wins Oregon by +15 points and Drazan just says "Oh, nah, I am going to send alternate electors for Trump." in 2024.

Slade Gorton is a Republican politician from Washington, not Oregon.

I fugged up and meant Gordon Smith. I don't know why I had Slade Gorton on my mind despite him being dead for two years now.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How come Slade Gordon didn't endorse Drazan? I thought he was one of the bigger named Republicans from Oregon?

Only reassurance I can see is that Larry Hogan and Christie endorsed Drazan. Yeah, Drazan might not be MAGA for now, but whos telling when the Dem Nominee wins Oregon by +15 points and Drazan just says "Oh, nah, I am going to send alternate electors for Trump." in 2024.

Slade Gorton is a Republican politician from Washington, not Oregon.

I fugged up and meant Gordon Smith. I don't know why I had Slade Gorton on my mind despite him being dead for two years now.

Ah. That would make sense.

[AnOdyssey]

I know both were the most recent Republicans to hold senate seats in both states, and it shows how insanely far right the nominees in both Oregon and Washington GOP senate candidates are; However, I am aware that Tiffany Smiley is not as fringe as Jo Rae Perkins.

Understandably this thread is about the Gubernatorial candidates; I feel it gives insight into what the GOP hopes to put up in future elections for both the senate and gov.

[Calthrina950]

This is certainly an example of how people derive pleasure on her from gloating over others. Double standards and all. Wanting Kotek to win to "own" Old School Republican certainly is something.

[Gracile]

This poll confirms my belief that OR is probably fool's gold for the GOP and that Johnson's support would decline steeply.

[President Johnson]

Democrats are coming home.

[NOVA Green]

It is a "Memerson" poll, and quite frankly I haven't been giving too much weight to polling in the '22 GE election cycle, regardless of pollster considering how we have seen significant polling gaps in recent election cycles in many states and nationally.

Too bad they don't have any cross-tabs, but yet their topline numbers including Biden Fav / Unfav, and top issues for Oregonian voters seem plausible.

Curious that homelessness doesn't really show up, or "gun rights", "climate change", etc...

Anybody have access to what they actually asked Oregonians about in terms of what their top issues were, especially considering we also have a few ballot initiatives relating to guns and health care on the ballot as well?

[TodayJunior]

Did anyone honestly think this was going to be anything other than a Dem win in the final stretch? I’ll be honest, I would have given it coin flip like the margin in Oregon 2000, but with  Kotek barely pulling it out. Maybe the final margin will be 2%.

On the other hand, every cycle has its surprises. I’d say New York has a better chance to flip as the sleeper race than this one despite the polling. Oregon/Washington seem much more ideologically liberal across the board to me.

[NOVA Green]

Did anyone honestly think this was going to be anything other than a Dem win in the final stretch? I’ll be honest, I would have given it coin flip like the margin in Oregon 2000, but with  Kotek barely pulling it out. Maybe the final margin will be 2%.

On the other hand, every cycle has its surprises. I’d say New York has a better chance to flip as the sleeper race than this one despite the polling. Oregon/Washington seem much more ideologically liberal across the board to me.

Despite the fact that Nate Silver doesn't really get too much respect these days on Atlas, one could make a decent argument that OR and WA tend to be relatively states with much lower levels of elasticity than many other parts of the US.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Johnson or Kotek was gonna win not Drazen with Ron WYDEN on the ballot

[NOVA Green]

Johnson or Kotek was gonna win not Drazen with Ron WYDEN on the ballot

Mr. Sellers with all due respect, reality is that in OR we typically don't see massive down-ballot dumps from Fed elections, and certainly not likely during non-PRES GE cycles.

Typically OR-GOV races tend to perform lower than PRES or SEN elections in OR.

Sure midterm elections in OR which typically overlap with OR-GOV elections, bcs of election cycles, might typically give PUBs greater opportunities, but strongly doubt that US-SEN elections which periodically overlap are a factor at all.

Pls explain your logic sir....

[sg0508]

And yet again, the GOP is about to strike out cold in Oregon.

It's really something. What will it finally take for them to break the jinx there in a major statewide race?