OR-Emerson: Kotek +5

[Senator Cris]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1588644758359969792?s=20&t=EgIJA9L...

[Skye]

REAL

[Gass3268]

Left coast lives!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Finally a good poll from OR

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, Kotek probably has this. It’s possible that she’ll actually end up winning by a bit more (maybe 7 points) as Johnson will probably underperform on Election Day. Third party candidates almost never do as well as polls suggest, and Kotek is the second choice of most of Johnson’s supporters.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The amount our politics have been nationalized has been toxic beyond belief .

[BenjiG98]

The real Oregon was the friends we made along the way.

[Calthrina950]

It looks like the Democratic hold of Oregon's Gubernatorial Mansion is going to continue after all. They held it during the 1994, 2010, and 2014 Republican waves, and 2022 doesn't look to be any different. If Kotek wins on Tuesday, then that will demonstrate Oregon remains unwinnable for Republicans.

[Lief 🗽]

What??? No! Who could have ever predicted this would happen??

[Lief 🗽]

The amount our politics have been nationalized has been toxic beyond belief .

Voters are willing to cross party lines for governor when the minority party runs candidates that match their state’s politics. Look at Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Vermont, etc. But you can’t just run a right wing Trump Republican in a blue state, even one with Democrats as incompetent as Oregon’s, and expect to have enough liberals vote for them.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The amount our politics have been nationalized has been toxic beyond belief .

Voters are willing to cross party lines for governor when the minority party runs candidates that match their state’s politics. Look at Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Vermont, etc. But you can’t just run a right wing Trump Republican in a blue state, even one with Democrats as incompetent as Oregon’s, and expect to have enough liberals vote for them.

No she is not that and in fact she fully accepts the outcome of the 2020 election and expelled a Jan 6th Republican from the GOP caucus .

[Eraserhead]

I don't hate to say I told you so.

[Skill and Chance]

Fascinating, so Johnson fading could really be helping Kotek here...

[Utah Neolib]

BIDEN BROUGHT IN THE MULES

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

BIDEN BROUGHT IN THE MULES

Another ace in the hole for Dark Brandon!

[Sestak]

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

I'll believe it when the results actually come in. VBM results as of last night do not look good for Dems, although I'm more worried about federal House, state legislature, and ballot measure results than having likely voted for a losing gubernatorial candidate.

So here's another angle on it...

Pretty clear that overall voter turnout is significantly lower not only the core Metro PDX Counties (MultCo, WashCo, and ClackCo) than one might normally expect at this point in the election cycle, but also running a bit thin the Northern-Mid Valley in the new CD-06 (Yamhill, Polk, and Marion).

The DEMs really should hope this is a result of localized issues within Metro PDX, and possibly the typical later voting day response among younger DEM base voters in that part of the Mid-Valley.

There is still plenty of time on the clock, but *at this point* in the GE Election Cycle, Oregon PUBs clearly appear to have momentum, in terms of overall RV TO Levels, as well as extremely low RV TO levels in some of the largest DEM strong holds in Oregon.

Regardless, the burden of proof is on Republicans to show that they can win statewide races, congressional district races, etc and on top of that to show that they aren't simply "renting seats"...

I think the only feasible interpretation of these turnout patterns that allows Kotek to win is if Betsy Johnson vote has collapsed to near null figures in rural areas but many Dem-leaning voters are weighing between a vote for her and a vote for Kotek, in which case you would expect them to take longer to vote than usual.

These turnout patterns are exactly what you'd expect to see if Oregon turns blood red tbh.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Kotek's got this, period.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

The amount our politics have been nationalized has been toxic beyond belief .

I believe a Knute Buehler type candidate might have squeaked it out this year. Your guys fault for running a MAGA type in Oregon of all places.

[wbrocks67]

I'll believe it when the results actually come in. VBM results as of last night do not look good for Dems, although I'm more worried about federal House, state legislature, and ballot measure results than having likely voted for a losing gubernatorial candidate.

So here's another angle on it...

Pretty clear that overall voter turnout is significantly lower not only the core Metro PDX Counties (MultCo, WashCo, and ClackCo) than one might normally expect at this point in the election cycle, but also running a bit thin the Northern-Mid Valley in the new CD-06 (Yamhill, Polk, and Marion).

The DEMs really should hope this is a result of localized issues within Metro PDX, and possibly the typical later voting day response among younger DEM base voters in that part of the Mid-Valley.

There is still plenty of time on the clock, but *at this point* in the GE Election Cycle, Oregon PUBs clearly appear to have momentum, in terms of overall RV TO Levels, as well as extremely low RV TO levels in some of the largest DEM strong holds in Oregon.

Regardless, the burden of proof is on Republicans to show that they can win statewide races, congressional district races, etc and on top of that to show that they aren't simply "renting seats"...

I think the only feasible interpretation of these turnout patterns that allows Kotek to win is if Betsy Johnson vote has collapsed to near null figures in rural areas but many Dem-leaning voters are weighing between a vote for her and a vote for Kotek, in which case you would expect them to take longer to vote than usual.

These turnout patterns are exactly what you'd expect to see if Oregon turns blood red tbh.

I mean, I'll agree that Dems need to get it together in OR - GOP has a 5% better return rate. But even with that being said, Dems still have an 8% lead in the party reg turnout on Rs.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The amount our politics have been nationalized has been toxic beyond belief .

I believe a Knute Buehler type candidate might have squeaked it out this year. Your guys fault for running a MAGA type in Oregon of all places.

She is not a MAGA type and local news called those Kotek ads out .

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

The amount our politics have been nationalized has been toxic beyond belief .

I believe a Knute Buehler type candidate might have squeaked it out this year. Your guys fault for running a MAGA type in Oregon of all places.

She is not a MAGA type and local news called those Kotek ads out .

I remember you weren't too happy she won the R primary.

Hopefully Bob Tiernan wins the primary for Governor though I wouldnt mind Bob Pierce too. Drazen imo would be a bad candidate as she is way to robotic and Pulliam would be a disaster

[OSR stands with Israel]

The amount our politics have been nationalized has been toxic beyond belief .

I believe a Knute Buehler type candidate might have squeaked it out this year. Your guys fault for running a MAGA type in Oregon of all places.

She is not a MAGA type and local news called those Kotek ads out .

I remember you weren't too happy she won the R primary.

Hopefully Bob Tiernan wins the primary for Governor though I wouldnt mind Bob Pierce too. Drazen imo would be a bad candidate as she is way to robotic and Pulliam would be a disaster

Cause she is not really an articulate candidate at all and that has hurt her . The fact that Kotek has been allowed to get away with distancing herself from Brown is insane , and if Drazan was a good campaigner she would point out that Kotek was the speaker of the house and Brown only signed into law what Kotek passed .

Instead she articulated it like , it’s cause Brown has had no checks which is why she has not done a good job . Instead she should have directly said , whatever Brown has done badly happened cause she signed the bills that Kotek passed .

Btw Pulliam was the MAGA candidate not Drazan

[wbrocks67]

I'm honestly more shocked that this also has Kotek having a better favorability than Drazan, given that most polls up to this point seemed to severely have the opposite (and Emerson usually has rosier numbers for Republicans in the fav department too)

[jamestroll]

I think Drazan could win but no assurance.

I at least got a response about their birth time.. that they did not know! lol

Most of the transits for Drazan in November are pretty good. But with a basic chart, there are also limited transits on her basic birth chart placed as May 28th, 1972 and based on a Salem (The State Capital of Oregon).

For Tina Kotek, no particularly negative influences this month.

I think it may be pretty close, but would pick Kotek to win based on state lean.