1. The gap between PA-SEN and PA-GOV is only ~3% or less.
2. Sanford Bishop (D, GA-02) loses.
3. Tiffany Smiley comes closer to winning than Cheri Beasley and Mandela Barnes.
4. Adam Laxalt wins by ~6 points.
5. Don Bolduc and Blake Masters both do better than Mehmet Oz.
I go back and forth on #2 because Trafalgar showed Bishop leading but honestly, after reading the excerpt the other day that you posted about minorities who are trending r not answering polls, I'm thinking you might be right. Trafalgar, while good at polling white people, cannot poll minorities to save their lives. This previously would have caused polls in states like GA/NV to skew more R than the actual result. But with the swing to the right among blacks/Hispanics that we are seeing in virtually every poll, (even ones that have democrats ahead in swing states) I'm starting to think even they might be underestimating R's in GA/AZ/NV
