Your boldest 2022 prediction?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 01:21:07 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  Your boldest 2022 prediction?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Your boldest 2022 prediction?  (Read 1784 times)
Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,373
Israel


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 04, 2022, 03:03:35 PM »

What is your boldest prediction with regard to this year's Atlas prediction games?

Mine is probably McMullin pulling off a win in Utah regarding the Senate races, and as for the gubernatorial races, Led Zeppelin beating Hochschul.
Logged
US Politics Fanatic
Bill Nelson
Rookie
**
Posts: 170
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2022, 04:40:55 PM »

It wouldn't be a shocker if Don Bolduc does better than Adam Laxalt, Blake Masters, Dr Oz and Herschell Walker.
Logged
ListMan38
Rookie
**
Posts: 125
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2022, 04:47:35 PM »

Laxalt gets about the support level of O'Dea

I think Georgia, Arizona, New Hampshire and Washington flip before Nevada, as Nevada is one of the few states where polling tends to drastically overshoot Rs, and Laxalt is performing identically to Heck 2016.
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,237
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2022, 09:21:06 AM »

CA 21(Jim Costa) is going to be a shocker. It will be very narrow either way. It will also be closer than CA-49/CA-47

Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,465
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2022, 01:39:16 PM »

I'll say Katie Hobbs pulls through.
Logged
Biden his time
Abdullah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,644
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2022, 04:26:57 PM »

Warnock wins by more than Biden 2020
Logged
patzer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,037
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2022, 04:41:43 PM »

Mike Doyle pulls off an upset in PA12 thanks to name confusion.
Logged
TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,067


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2022, 12:11:49 AM »

FUNG
Logged
RFayette
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,952
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 07, 2022, 12:14:07 AM »

1. Bolduc wins (going out on a limb here).
2. GOP finishes with >245 House seats.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 07, 2022, 02:21:41 AM »
« Edited: November 07, 2022, 10:36:06 PM by MT Treasurer »

1. The gap between PA-SEN and PA-GOV is only ~4%.
2. Sanford Bishop (D, GA-02) loses.
3. Tiffany Smiley comes closer to winning than Cheri Beasley and Mandela Barnes.
4. Adam Laxalt wins by ~6 points.
5. Blake Masters does better than Mehmet Oz.
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,237
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 07, 2022, 11:39:10 AM »

1. The gap between PA-SEN and PA-GOV is only ~3% or less.
2. Sanford Bishop (D, GA-02) loses.
3. Tiffany Smiley comes closer to winning than Cheri Beasley and Mandela Barnes.
4. Adam Laxalt wins by ~6 points.
5. Don Bolduc and Blake Masters both do better than Mehmet Oz.
I go back and forth on #2 because Trafalgar showed Bishop leading but honestly, after reading the excerpt the other day that you posted about minorities who are trending r not answering polls, I'm thinking you might be right. Trafalgar, while good at polling white people, cannot poll minorities to save their lives. This previously would have caused polls in states like GA/NV to skew more R than the actual result. But with the swing to the right among blacks/Hispanics that we are seeing in virtually every poll, (even ones that have democrats ahead in swing states) I'm starting to think even they might be underestimating R's in GA/AZ/NV
Logged
oldkyhome
Rookie
**
Posts: 114
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 07, 2022, 11:30:50 PM »

1) Smiley comes within 5 points of victory.
2) Whitmer and Hassan are unseated.
3) Warnock and L. Kelly hold on.
Logged
PPT Spiral
Spiral
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,522
Bosnia and Herzegovina


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 08, 2022, 12:59:37 AM »

RI-GOV goes R.
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,217


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 08, 2022, 02:08:45 PM »

Ny06's margin might get interesting.
Logged
Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 16, 2022, 02:00:27 PM »

1. The gap between PA-SEN and PA-GOV is only ~4%.
2. Sanford Bishop (D, GA-02) loses.
3. Tiffany Smiley comes closer to winning than Cheri Beasley and Mandela Barnes.
4. Adam Laxalt wins by ~6 points.
5. Blake Masters does better than Mehmet Oz.

lol
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.033 seconds with 12 queries.