OH-SEN Emerson: Vance + 9

[2016]

J. D. Vance 53
Tim Ryan 44

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/ohio-2022-vance-extends-lead-over-ryan-for-us-senate/

Republicans coming home. Finally. Ohio does its usual thing waiting late until deciding

[astrohuncho]

if they can poll ohio well they can poll the country well

[Umengus]

J. D. Vance 53
Tim Ryan 44

Republicans coming home. Finally. Ohio does its usual thing waiting late until deciding

what a surprise. If Vance wins by 9+, pollsters should stop to polling the state because they are ridiculous.

[2016]

if they can poll ohio well they can poll the country well

If Vance wins Ohio by the same margin Trump did in 2016 and 2020 that bodes very well for Republican Prospects in the Great Lake States such as Wisconsin & Michigan.

[astrohuncho]

if they can poll ohio well they can poll the country well

If Vance wins Ohio by the same margin Trump did in 2016 and 2020 that bodes very well for Republican Prospects in the Great Lake States such as Wisconsin & Michigan.

i have had him winning by a solid 10 points for months

[brucejoel99]

(obligatory mEmerson caveat needed)

[SnowLabrador]

Yep, Republicans coming home as expected.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Shocking that a race that has remained safe R throughout the cycle is safe R 

[Aurelius]

Yeah, this is moving from Lean to Likely territory.

I'm still hoping Trumbull County goes blue, just to prove a certain point.

[Calthrina950]

Ryan is done. Vance is consolidating the Republican base and is seeing a rise in momentum, as is happening to many other Republican candidates during this closing stretch of the campaign.

[2016]

Yep, Republicans coming home as expected.

I was pretty convinced that they would come home eventually. Ohio Governor Mike DeWine going like crazy around the State with the Bus of the OH GOP for the last 7-10 Days trying to convince folks to vote for Vance.

If Vance in OH and Bolduc in NH win the entire Republican Senate Leadership in Washington owes DeWine & Sununu a big "Thanksgiving Present" I can tell you that.

[MT Treasurer]

Don’t worry, we’ll go through this again next cycle.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Confident that Vance carries Mahoning..

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Lmao, Ryan might not win but this poll will be the first time in a long while that Ohio polls have underestimate democrats

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lmao, Ryan might not win but this poll will be the first time in a long while that Ohio polls have underestimate democrats

Not really many polls last time had WARNOCK winning GA but Ossoff losing those polls underestimate Ossoff just like this is underestimate Ryan

[2016]

Lmao, Ryan might not win but this poll will be the first time in a long while that Ohio polls have underestimate democrats

The ceiling these Day for an Ohio Democrats 45 maybe 46 %. Anything higher is gravy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Don’t worry, we’ll go through this again next cycle.

Lol do you think Ryan is gonna lose by 10 no, this same EMERSON had LAXALT +5 and Johnson +5 and Johnson is up by 2 and LAXALT is losing by 1

[Roll Roons]

Remind me why Mitch and Co dropped $34M on this race?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Remind me why Mitch and Co dropped $34M on this race?

Ryan is not losing by 10 I guarantee you that

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Lmao, Ryan might not win but this poll will be the first time in a long while that Ohio polls have underestimate democrats

On the basis of what ? Wishacasting.

No evidence to suggest Ryan is drastically underestimated.

[Lief 🗽]

Don’t worry, we’ll go through this again next cycle.

As long as GOP SuperPACs keep falling for this, I’m not gonna complain!

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Remind me why Mitch and Co dropped $34M on this race?

The political class is still coming accustomed to the fact ohio isn't competitive + polling in the state is the worst in the nation.

[President Johnson]

I told y'all so for months. Even if Democrats don't get crushed nationally and hold the senate, Ohio was never going to happen in a Biden midterm. Potentially not even in a Trump midterm. Too unfortunate, because Ryan ran a strong campaign and would make a great senator unlike this smug elitist. But I was never living under any illusions this seat was going Democratic, even if the Republicans nominated a bacon sandwich.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I told y'all so for months. Even if Democrats don't get crushed nationally and hold the senate, Ohio was never going to happen in a Biden midterm. Potentially not even in a Trump midterm. Too unfortunate, because Ryan ran a strong campaign and would make a great senator unlike this smug elitist. But I was never living under any illusions this seat was going Democratic, even if the Republicans nominated a bacon sandwich.

Let's not forget Molinaro+8 this is a poll it's not a Projection, our Predictions aren't rankings I still have this going to Ryan

This same EMERSON oversample LAXALT and Johnson plus 5 and Johnson is plus 2 and LAXALT is down 1 it's a H effect Cygnal has it VANCE plus 4

[Tekken_Guy]

if they can poll ohio well they can poll the country well

If Vance wins Ohio by the same margin Trump did in 2016 and 2020 that bodes very well for Republican Prospects in the Great Lake States such as Wisconsin & Michigan.

Matching Trump won't be enough given that Biden won Michigan by almost 3 points. Wisconsin was close enough presidentially that a tiny bit of movement could swing it to Republicans.