OH Sen - Cygnal - Vance +6

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1588542873569411073?t=xDudrJOwMg9ihgyEByT...

[Sir Mohamed]

Safe R.

Ryan might have had a chance in a 2nd Trump midterm. This time, not so much.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R.

Ryan might have had a chance in a 2nd Trump midterm. This time, not so much.

Polls can lie just like Molinaro plus 8 this is not a Projection Ds are outpacing Rs in Cleveland, Franklin and Hamilton I have faith is Ryan and Beasley, Rs are only outpacing Ds in TX and FL and Abbott and DeSantis are not losing


TX reelected Rick Perry so many times
Upsets do happen AK Peltola

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

not good for Ryan that Vance hit 50%. Does Cygnal have an R house effect?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not giving up on OH yes Cygnal does have an R H effect they had LAXALT winning

[Vosem]

not good for Ryan that Vance hit 50%. Does Cygnal have an R house effect?

They are Republican-affiliated, but no, if anything they had a Democratic house effect in 2020. (They also overestimated Democrats in 2018, though they were among the very few pollsters to call all of Braun/Hawley/DeSantis all winning. Though they had Bill Nelson up).

The really fascinating thing is that they have an enormous GOP landslide in NV (like, GOP clearly sweeping all 4 House seats), but still think Ryan will stay relatively close to Vance. And they're pretty bullish on Michigan Democrats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

not good for Ryan that Vance hit 50%. Does Cygnal have an R house effect?

They are Republican-affiliated, but no, if anything they had a Democratic house effect in 2020. (They also overestimated Democrats in 2018, though they were among the very few pollsters to call all of Braun/Hawley/DeSantis all winning. Though they had Bill Nelson up).

The really fascinating thing is that they have an enormous GOP landslide in NV (like, GOP clearly sweeping all 4 House seats), but still think Ryan will stay relatively close to Vance. And they're pretty bullish on Michigan Democrats.

So I guess you can't speak of a generalized house effect here.
This poll still suffices as proof that this, when push comes to shove, is Vance's race to lose, though Ryan could make it very close.