Maine 2nd - Survey USA - Golden +3

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1588528464331788291?t=uu3W2TV1C0tmEZWI...

[Mr.Phips]

Thank goodness for RCV!!

[iceman]

very sketchy, so many undecideds?

[wbrocks67]

Basically none of the House polling points to a red wave. Remains to be seen if House polling is off like it was in 2020, though.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Basically none of the House polling points to a red wave. Remains to be seen if House polling is off like it was in 2020, though.

I'd argue that even if JG holds on (which would be splendid), it may not speak too much to the natty environment just because Maine has a bit of an oddball voting streak to it that doesn't always conform to the overall mood. 

[wbrocks67]

Basically none of the House polling points to a red wave. Remains to be seen if House polling is off like it was in 2020, though.

I'd argue that even if JG holds on (which would be splendid), it may not speak too much to the natty environment just because Maine has a bit of an oddball voting streak to it that doesn't always conform to the overall mood. 

Very true! It just seems like an across the board thing - all of the house polls we've seen thus far from nonpartisans (all the NYT/Siena, VA-02, PA-07, MN-02, NY-19, NY-22, etc.) all seem much better than you'd expect for Dems given CW.

[Lief 🗽]

RIP Golden, a Democrat leading by only 3 here with 43% of the vote is not going to win.

[wbrocks67]

RIP Golden, a Democrat leading by only 3 here with 43% of the vote is not going to win.

RCV, sis

[Mr.Phips]

RIP Golden, a Democrat leading by only 3 here with 43% of the vote is not going to win.

Bond had 8% and the vast majority of his votes will go to Golden in the RCV reallocation.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like it is Golden 54-46 after allocation.

[Lief 🗽]

Looks like it is Golden 54-46 after allocation.

Oh okay, that’s a little better. Still, Democrats have a history of over-polling here.

[Devils30]

Yeah, RCV looks pretty good for Dems in places like this. They seem to be overperforming more in small state places like here, Alaska relative to 2020.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks like it is Golden 54-46 after allocation.

That would actually be a positive swing from 2020, iirc...

[Skill and Chance]

Yeah, RCV looks pretty good for Dems in places like this. They seem to be overperforming more in small state places like here, Alaska relative to 2020.

Yes, the national generic numbers are pretty clearly driven by Dems coming back down to earth in urban centers, particularly those with substantial Latin American influence. 

[SnowLabrador]

If not for RCV, this would absolutely be slipping away from Golden. But New England is weird politically.

[here2view]

IF (big if) Golden wins next week he should either: A) run for King's seat if he retires in 2024, or B) run for Collins' seat in 2026 (I don't think she runs again but who knows.)

[Tekken_Guy]

IF (big if) Golden wins next week he should either: A) run for King's seat if he retires in 2024, or B) run for Collins' seat in 2026 (I don't think she runs again but who knows.)

He could do it even if he loses.

[S019]

IF (big if) Golden wins next week he should either: A) run for King's seat if he retires in 2024, or B) run for Collins' seat in 2026 (I don't think she runs again but who knows.)

Absolutely not, Democrats don't need another Sinema.

Anyways, Maine polls are pretty infamous for overestimating Democrats (especially ME-02 polls

"In the 2nd District, where (unlike in the race for Governor) ranked choice voting will be used, incumbent Democrat Jared Golden wins 43% of first-choice votes; former Republican US Representative Bruce Poliquin, who was unseated by Golden in 2018, takes 40%. 8% cast their first-round votes for independent Tiffany Bond; 9% are undecided. If undecided voters are disregarded, Golden has 47% of first-choice votes, Poliquin 43%, Bond 9%.

When Bond is eliminated, and her supporters' votes are re-allocated to their 2nd choice candidates, Golden defeats Poliquin, 54% to 46%."

This is important to note, Golden is not above 50%, sure he gets most of Bond's votes, but excluding undecideds makes these R2 numbers basically useless.

[Tekken_Guy]

IF (big if) Golden wins next week he should either: A) run for King's seat if he retires in 2024, or B) run for Collins' seat in 2026 (I don't think she runs again but who knows.)

Absolutely not, Democrats don't need another Sinema.

Anyways, Maine polls are pretty infamous for overestimating Democrats (especially ME-02 polls

"In the 2nd District, where (unlike in the race for Governor) ranked choice voting will be used, incumbent Democrat Jared Golden wins 43% of first-choice votes; former Republican US Representative Bruce Poliquin, who was unseated by Golden in 2018, takes 40%. 8% cast their first-round votes for independent Tiffany Bond; 9% are undecided. If undecided voters are disregarded, Golden has 47% of first-choice votes, Poliquin 43%, Bond 9%.

When Bond is eliminated, and her supporters' votes are re-allocated to their 2nd choice candidates, Golden defeats Poliquin, 54% to 46%."

This is important to note, Golden is not above 50%, sure he gets most of Bond's votes, but excluding undecideds makes these R2 numbers basically useless.

Maybe he becomes another Gillibrand instead.

[NOVA Green]

Ok... please help me understand this from one of the SUSA poll questions...

Question #2: "A general election will be held on November 3rd in which Maine voters will vote for Senator and other offices. Which best describes you?"

Trying to wrap my brain around how of that makes any sense whatsoever?

Regardless of SUSA's overall polling record by state over election cycles, etc... I do like their whole consistent "crosstab" format over the years...

Yes... yes... yes, I know the whole thing about crosstabs in general with political polling MOE, subsamples, etc...

But if they can't even get the election day correct in their polling question posted online from their official website, certainly makes one wonder about how sloppy they are in other regards...

Just sayin'

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=80d9147a-d199-4663-8803-0453b2f6263b

[South Dakota Democrat]

Ok... please help me understand this from one of the SUSA poll questions...

Question #2: "A general election will be held on November 3rd in which Maine voters will vote for Senator and other offices. Which best describes you?"

Trying to wrap my brain around how of that makes any sense whatsoever?

Regardless of SUSA's overall polling record by state over election cycles, etc... I do like their whole consistent "crosstab" format over the years...

Yes... yes... yes, I know the whole thing about crosstabs in general with political polling MOE, subsamples, etc...

But if they can't even get the election day correct in their polling question posted online from their official website, certainly makes one wonder about how sloppy they are in other regards...

Just sayin'

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=80d9147a-d199-4663-8803-0453b2f6263b

Nov. 3?

[NOVA Green]

Ok... please help me understand this from one of the SUSA poll questions...

Question #2: "A general election will be held on November 3rd in which Maine voters will vote for Senator and other offices. Which best describes you?"

Trying to wrap my brain around how of that makes any sense whatsoever?

Regardless of SUSA's overall polling record by state over election cycles, etc... I do like their whole consistent "crosstab" format over the years...

Yes... yes... yes, I know the whole thing about crosstabs in general with political polling MOE, subsamples, etc...

But if they can't even get the election day correct in their polling question posted online from their official website, certainly makes one wonder about how sloppy they are in other regards...

Just sayin'

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=80d9147a-d199-4663-8803-0453b2f6263b

Nov. 3?

s**t you not...

Here is a screengrab which I just took from their official website:



https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=80d9147a-d199-4663-8803-0453b2f6263b

[South Dakota Democrat]

Ok... please help me understand this from one of the SUSA poll questions...

Question #2: "A general election will be held on November 3rd in which Maine voters will vote for Senator and other offices. Which best describes you?"

Trying to wrap my brain around how of that makes any sense whatsoever?

Regardless of SUSA's overall polling record by state over election cycles, etc... I do like their whole consistent "crosstab" format over the years...

Yes... yes... yes, I know the whole thing about crosstabs in general with political polling MOE, subsamples, etc...

But if they can't even get the election day correct in their polling question posted online from their official website, certainly makes one wonder about how sloppy they are in other regards...

Just sayin'

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=80d9147a-d199-4663-8803-0453b2f6263b

Nov. 3?

s**t you not...

Here is a screengrab which I just took from their official website:



https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=80d9147a-d199-4663-8803-0453b2f6263b

Ha wow, interesting.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

IF (big if) Golden wins next week he should either: A) run for King's seat if he retires in 2024, or B) run for Collins' seat in 2026 (I don't think she runs again but who knows.)

Absolutely not, Democrats don't need another Sinema.

Anyways, Maine polls are pretty infamous for overestimating Democrats (especially ME-02 polls

"In the 2nd District, where (unlike in the race for Governor) ranked choice voting will be used, incumbent Democrat Jared Golden wins 43% of first-choice votes; former Republican US Representative Bruce Poliquin, who was unseated by Golden in 2018, takes 40%. 8% cast their first-round votes for independent Tiffany Bond; 9% are undecided. If undecided voters are disregarded, Golden has 47% of first-choice votes, Poliquin 43%, Bond 9%.

When Bond is eliminated, and her supporters' votes are re-allocated to their 2nd choice candidates, Golden defeats Poliquin, 54% to 46%."

This is important to note, Golden is not above 50%, sure he gets most of Bond's votes, but excluding undecideds makes these R2 numbers basically useless.

They might not need one but they are probably going to get one come January 3, 2025.

[S019]

IF (big if) Golden wins next week he should either: A) run for King's seat if he retires in 2024, or B) run for Collins' seat in 2026 (I don't think she runs again but who knows.)

Absolutely not, Democrats don't need another Sinema.

Anyways, Maine polls are pretty infamous for overestimating Democrats (especially ME-02 polls

"In the 2nd District, where (unlike in the race for Governor) ranked choice voting will be used, incumbent Democrat Jared Golden wins 43% of first-choice votes; former Republican US Representative Bruce Poliquin, who was unseated by Golden in 2018, takes 40%. 8% cast their first-round votes for independent Tiffany Bond; 9% are undecided. If undecided voters are disregarded, Golden has 47% of first-choice votes, Poliquin 43%, Bond 9%.

When Bond is eliminated, and her supporters' votes are re-allocated to their 2nd choice candidates, Golden defeats Poliquin, 54% to 46%."

This is important to note, Golden is not above 50%, sure he gets most of Bond's votes, but excluding undecideds makes these R2 numbers basically useless.

They might not need one but they are probably going to get one come January 3, 2025.

I honestly don't think he'll win re-election and he always struck me as very overrated. Can't say I'll exactly cry if his political career ends.