Siena: NY-19 Riley +5, NY-22 Conole +4

[Devils30]

NY-19: Riley (D) leads Molinaro (R) 48-43
NY-22: Conole (D) leads Williams (R) 46-42



https://scri.siena.edu/2022/11/04/spectrum-news-siena-college-ny-19th-congressional-district-poll/
https://scri.siena.edu/2022/11/04/spectrum-news-siena-college-ny-22nd-congressional-district-poll/

Great polls for Dems and another individual district poll pointing to a closer House race than the GCB

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news

[Devils30]

If these margins are realized, the GOP gains in the House might not exceed 11.

[2016]

Zeldin massivly overperforming in both Districts.

[2016]

If these margins are realized, the GOP gains in the House might not exceed 11.

LOL, are you kidding us. Republicans don't need a single District Win in New York State to flip the House. There are enough Districts East of the Mississippi River to give Republicans a clear cut House Majority.

[wbrocks67]

Zeldin massivly overperforming in both Districts.

Eh, they're 6 and 9% shifts from 2020, which would extrapolate to like Hochul +15ish across the state, which seems about right (and also exactly what polls were showing on average before the whole "Zeldin surge")

[MillennialModerate]

These would be insanely good for Dems.

Which is why I’m skeptical … very skeptical

[Brittain33]

Zeldin massivly overperforming in both Districts.

Um, no? Doesn’t he lose handily if he pulls in these kind of numbers upstate? Overperforming federal numbers isn’t impressive when Biden won the state by 23 points. He needs to dominate.

[prag_prog]

That NY22 result is bit surprising. 538 has that district as Likely R with projected margin as Williams +4.5

[wbrocks67]

That NY22 result is bit surprising. 538 has that district as Likely R with projected margin as Williams +4.5

Looks like the only other public poll had Williams at +5, which was the last Siena. Maybe that was influencing it. I think a few of the prognosticators though have motived it to Lean R?

[prag_prog]

That NY22 result is bit surprising. 538 has that district as Likely R with projected margin as Williams +4.5

Looks like the only other public poll had Williams at +5, which was the last Siena. Maybe that was influencing it. I think a few of the prognosticators though have motived it to Lean R?

yes..their September poll had it Williams+5, Zedlin+3 and now this is Conole+4, Hochul+3. What was Biden's margin in this district ?

[wbrocks67]

That NY22 result is bit surprising. 538 has that district as Likely R with projected margin as Williams +4.5

Looks like the only other public poll had Williams at +5, which was the last Siena. Maybe that was influencing it. I think a few of the prognosticators though have motived it to Lean R?

yes..their September poll had it Williams+5, Zedlin+3 and now this is Conole+4, Hochul+3. What was Biden's margin in this district ?

Biden +9

[Sestak]

If this bears out…LOL molinaro

[S019]

Molinaro being the Republican Christy Smith would be hilarious.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Molinaro being the Republican Christy Smith would be hilarious.

I think he prevails this time but he is a lot weaker than I thought

[Devils30]

Molinaro being the Republican Christy Smith would be hilarious.

I think he prevails this time but he is a lot weaker than I thought

The new NY-19 is a lot less friendly for Molinaro than the one he lost in August. Adding Ithaca and losing Dutchess hurts him a lot and Ithaca will have higher Dem turnout with schools in session compared to 2020.

[Dani Rose]

To be honest, this prevailing fret over Red New York kind of baffles me a little. For one, as people have started to realize, the polling averages have been absolutely inundated with Republican pollsters, garbage pollsters, and garbage Republican pollsters. For two, if there are any states in America where I entirely expect Dobbs to cause a massive overpeformance now, just like it did this summer, New York is one of them and California is the other. Moreover, NY-22 has only become more Democratic and John Katko isn't around to hold his coalition together, and Molinaro now has to contend with a district that both A) has a major university city, and B) no longer contains his home territory.

As with so many things, Everything Will Be Fine.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Zeldin massivly overperforming in both Districts.

Um, no? Doesn’t he lose handily if he pulls in these kind of numbers upstate? Overperforming federal numbers isn’t impressive when Biden won the state by 23 points. He needs to dominate.

A lot of people haven't fully computed just how big the numbers have to be for Zeldin to actually win. Unless he somehow gets monster margins from LI and Westchester, and cuts down big on Hochul's margins in NYC, he needs to win by a big margin in Upstate NY.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Zeldin massivly overperforming in both Districts.

Um, no? Doesn’t he lose handily if he pulls in these kind of numbers upstate? Overperforming federal numbers isn’t impressive when Biden won the state by 23 points. He needs to dominate.

A lot of people haven't fully computed just how big the numbers have to be for Zeldin to actually win. Unless he somehow gets monster margins from LI and Westchester, and cuts down big on Hochul's margins in NYC, he needs to win by a big margin in Upstate NY.

Yes he needs to win these places by 15 to 20 at minimum.

[Tekken_Guy]

Siena had Katko tied and Brindisi up 9 in 2020. How’d that work out?

[wbrocks67]

Siena had Katko tied and Brindisi up 9 in 2020. How’d that work out?

Siena also had Cuomo up 13 in their final 2018 poll. how'd that work out?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Siena had Katko tied and Brindisi up 9 in 2020. How’d that work out?

You get a gold star!  You have discovered the variance that occurs in polling, which makes it virtually certain that any active pollster will have both inaccurate and accurate past results that can be cherry-picked to suit whatever narrative one likes!

Calling out polling misses or successes in individual races is a dumb, tiresome take (no matter which side does it).

[Mr.Phips]

Siena had Katko tied and Brindisi up 9 in 2020. How’d that work out?

That’ll happen when Dems stupidly don’t do in person canvassing when Republicans still do.

[Pericles]

If these margins are realized, the GOP gains in the House might not exceed 11.

LOL, are you kidding us. Republicans don't need a single District Win in New York State to flip the House. There are enough Districts East of the Mississippi River to give Republicans a clear cut House Majority.

Sure but if Democrats are winning districts that narrowly voted for Biden in New York it's probably not just a thing in the state but means Republicans aren't making huge gains in swing districts across the country.