PA Gov - Trafalgar: Shapiro+4

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/trafalgar_group/status/1588403574945755137

[Lief 🗽]

lol

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

"But closing gap"

Oh, so it's over?

[Yoda]

LMAO. The last, what?.....FIVE polls on this race all had Shapiro leads of 10-14 points?

[Eraserhead]

What's funny is all of the other Republican polling outfits gave up already and decided to leave this guy to the wolves.

[Person Man]

What's funny is all of the other Republican polling outfits gave up already and decided to leave this guy to the wolves.

Tom Wolf?

[jd7171]

Yeah, this is clearly suspect. All other polls including R polls have shown Shapiro picking up undecideds. His lead grew in most of the polls. Also, Mastriano has struggled to get above his primary percent the whole time, which was 44 percent. Last poll was Shapiro +9.

[TheTide]

This probably represents the worst case for Shapiro.

[Person Man]

This probably represents the worst case for Shapiro.

That’s what “good” Republican polls try to accurately model. The best realistic night for Republicans probably does have Walker, Ass, Bolduc to get to 51%, Laxalt to 52%, and Masters winning by a few thousands of votes. Maybe Whitmer and Shapiro barely get 51-52% and there is at least 1 blue state upset in governor races.

If there’s nothing nefarious or just sociologically weird going on (there are, like in 2016, millions of Republicans hiding in plain sight from pollsters), I’m not expecting this to happen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It won't matter Shapiro is gonna win anyways

[Person Man]

So there’s a 8-10% spread between mainstream pollsters and people who are accounting for people afraid that people think they are racist/are closeted racists? So does this mean 10% of the voters in PA are either not ready to admit they are racist or afraid they might be racist?

[Sir Mohamed]

A 4 pt. margin is a landslide by Trafalgar standards. Ergo, Mastriano - the dude who looks like a literal nazi - is done. Done. Done. Done.

[MT Treasurer]

More believable than the Marist/YouGov/etc. numbers for sure — not that hard to see how there might be a polling error in this particular race with this particular Republican candidate.

[Crackerjack McJohnson]

I think Traflagar understands that Rust Belt Republicans and Trumpers don't answer the poll phone calls.  I think it will probably be surprisingly closer like when Murphy only won by 4 in NJ... but not *that* close.  May be like 7 in Shapiro's direction when it's all counted up.  Mastriano sticks to his "I'm a crazy fascist" guns but he's got Big Guns so that's gonna scare away too many people in Gladwyne even though they think he might give them a tax credit for owning a yacht or let them buy one chicken and declare themself a farm for the purpose of state taxes.  Shapiro definitely wouldn't do that because you can tell by looking at him that he's never been to a farm. 

[Duke of York]

Everything is margin of error in their polls. I think they just happened to be right in 2016 by sheer chance.

[Atlas Force]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VTBMznLrWs

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Everything is margin of error in their polls. I think they just happened to be right in 2016 by sheer chance.

Given they nailed 2021 races, as a most recent example.. this doesn’t particularly make much sense.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trafalgar had Bolduc+1.1 and Hassan is +4

[Duke of York]

Everything is margin of error in their polls. I think they just happened to be right in 2016 by sheer chance.

Given they nailed 2021 races, as a most recent example.. this doesn’t particularly make much sense.

This isn’t true. They are not the only pollster that matters. Every pollster had Youngkin leading by Election Day.

In New Jersey Murphy was as at 50 percent in just about every poll. It was not expected undecideds would break for the Republican as heavily as they did.

They never find any election outside the margin of error. That is highly questionable.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This probably represents the worst case for Shapiro.

Yep.
Mastriano is poorly positioned...I expect a margin bigger than 4.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Everything is margin of error in their polls. I think they just happened to be right in 2016 by sheer chance.

Given they nailed 2021 races, as a most recent example.. this doesn’t particularly make much sense.

This isn’t true. They are not the only pollster that matters. Every pollster had Youngkin leading by Election Day.

In New Jersey Murphy was as at 50 percent in just about every poll. It was not expected undecideds would break for the Republican as heavily as they did.

They never find any election outside the margin of error. That is highly questionable.

You do realize margins matter.. lol.

Trafalgar nailed NJ and Virginia as I said.

[Duke of York]

Everything is margin of error in their polls. I think they just happened to be right in 2016 by sheer chance.

Given they nailed 2021 races, as a most recent example.. this doesn’t particularly make much sense.

This isn’t true. They are not the only pollster that matters. Every pollster had Youngkin leading by Election Day.

In New Jersey Murphy was as at 50 percent in just about every poll. It was not expected undecideds would break for the Republican as heavily as they did.

They never find any election outside the margin of error. That is highly questionable.

You do realize margins matter.. lol.

Trafalgar nailed NJ and Virginia as I said.

Trafalgar has spoken. Murray in Washington is in serious trouble. No other pollster matters.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Watch RCP move this race back to tossup because of this lol.