OK GOV SOONER POLL HOFMEISTER+3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.news9.com/story/63644b29131549071f20b89c/poll:-hofmeister-maintains-small-lead-in-final-days-before-oklahoma-general-election

HOFMEISTER 48
GOV Stitt 45

[Lief 🗽]

The final Sooner Poll in 2018 was Stitt +3; he won by +12.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The final Sooner Poll in 2018 was Stitt +3; he won by +12.

Still, all measures are pointing to another GOP underperformace here.

[Lief 🗽]

The final Sooner Poll in 2018 was Stitt +3; he won by +12.

Still, all measures are pointing to another GOP underperformace here.

Agreed! Just unlikely that she actually gets over the line.

[Dani Rose]

I'm not betting money on it, but I so want it to happen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The final Sooner Poll in 2018 was Stitt +3; he won by +12.

There are gonna be Upsets JUST LIKE WE WON AK WITH MARY PELTOLA
Still, all measures are pointing to another GOP underperformace here.

Agreed! Just unlikely that she actually gets over the line.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, I guess this is slightly more likely to happen than NY vise versa. That said, I think polling is just fandamentally flawd here. Stitt may not win by 20 pts. but can't see him in single digit margins here. This race is Safe R.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The evidence is piling up that Stitt will have a far closer call than OK Rs are used to seeing.

[Orwell]

I personally think it would be hilarious if we're all wrong about Hofmeister doing well in the OKC-Tulsa areas and this is actually just the last hurrah of Little Dixie

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Ugh, I guess this is slightly more likely to happen than NY vise versa. That said, I think polling is just fandamentally flawd here. Stitt may not win by 20 pts. but can't see him in single digit margins here. This race is Safe R.

why does mohamed not believe in blue waves

[Skill and Chance]

I personally think it would be hilarious if we're all wrong about Hofmeister doing well in the OKC-Tulsa areas and this is actually just the last hurrah of Little Dixie

Hmmm... the tribal and rural county official endorsements sure are piling up for Hofmeister.

[Orwell]

Ugh, I guess this is slightly more likely to happen than NY vise versa. That said, I think polling is just fandamentally flawd here. Stitt may not win by 20 pts. but can't see him in single digit margins here. This race is Safe R.

why does mohamed not believe in blue waves

Because there is an unpopular President and the only semi-accurate thing we have to go off of is historical trends meaning that the GOP is expected to gain quite a bit in November in Congress.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I personally think it would be hilarious if we're all wrong about Hofmeister doing well in the OKC-Tulsa areas and this is actually just the last hurrah of Little Dixie

Which counties in rural OK have the highest non-White %?

[Skill and Chance]

I personally think it would be hilarious if we're all wrong about Hofmeister doing well in the OKC-Tulsa areas and this is actually just the last hurrah of Little Dixie

Which counties in rural OK have the highest non-White %?

Texas County in the Panhandle is only 44% NH white, which is the lowest, but that's overwhelmingly because of undocumented immigrants working in the meatpacking industry there.  The county consistently votes near unanimously R.

In eastern/southern Oklahoma, the 5 least NH white counties are:

1. Adair 40%
2. Cherokee 47%
3. Muskogee 55.8%
4. Harmon 56%
5. Tillman 58%

These are generally the rural areas that stayed Dem downballot the longest.  Much of the non-white population is Native American. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I personally think it would be hilarious if we're all wrong about Hofmeister doing well in the OKC-Tulsa areas and this is actually just the last hurrah of Little Dixie

Which counties in rural OK have the highest non-White %?

Texas County in the Panhandle is only 44% NH white, which is the lowest, but that's overwhelmingly because of undocumented immigrants working in the meatpacking industry there.  The county consistently votes near unanimously R.

In eastern/southern Oklahoma, the 5 least NH white counties are:

1. Adair 40%
2. Cherokee 47%
3. Muskogee 55.8%
4. Harmon 56%
5. Choctaw 61%

These are generally the rural areas that stayed Dem downballot the longest.  Much of the non-white population is Native American.  

Guess it's safe to say that any winning Hoffmeister map has her at least somewhat competitive in these counties, given the reality on the ground...

[Skill and Chance]

I personally think it would be hilarious if we're all wrong about Hofmeister doing well in the OKC-Tulsa areas and this is actually just the last hurrah of Little Dixie

Which counties in rural OK have the highest non-White %?

Texas County in the Panhandle is only 44% NH white, which is the lowest, but that's overwhelmingly because of undocumented immigrants working in the meatpacking industry there.  The county consistently votes near unanimously R.

In eastern/southern Oklahoma, the 5 least NH white counties are:

1. Adair 40%
2. Cherokee 47%
3. Muskogee 55.8%
4. Harmon 56%
5. Choctaw 61%

These are generally the rural areas that stayed Dem downballot the longest.  Much of the non-white population is Native American. 

Guess it's safe to say that any winning Hoffmeister map has her at least somewhat competitive in these counties, given the reality on the ground...

Here were the best rural counties for the Medicaid expansion referendum that passed statewide by 1% in 2020.  It won >60% in OKC and Tulsa, and >55% in Comanche, Cleveland, Payne (including the small city of Lawton and the 2 largest college towns of Norman and Stillwater).

1. Cherokee 56.2%
2. Pontotoc 52.8%
3. Ottawa 48.3%
4. Osage 48.1%
5. Jefferson 48.0%

As expected, they are all in the south/east.  Note there are like 10 additional rural counties where it got over 45%.  However, Medicaid expansion got voted down in a blowout in Harmon and Adair. 

If Hofmeister wins, I definitely think she picks up plenty of rural counties, but I doubt she could match 60% in OKC and especially Tulsa in a D vs. R race.

[Alben Barkley]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are gonna be upsets OR, OK may go different ways just like OH and NC and NH and VT Gov it's a midterm not Prez race OH,KS, MD, MA, VT and NH went R in 2018 and AK went D in 22 and VA went R in 2021

[Horus]

Why is Stitt so unpopular?