GA-Echelon Insights: Walker + 4

[GeorgiaModerate]

Local political reporter & data guy has thoughts on this poll:

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1588204910101041152

[soundchaser]

Does that fit your feeling of what’s happening on the ground, GM? I’m not sure what to make of the black vote percentage in early voting if the split will be so pronounced.

[Sbane]

Local political reporter & data guy has thoughts on this poll:

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1588204910101041152

I am fairly certain this will go to a runoff. Many voters in GA likely want to choose NOTA. Too bad they don't live in Nevada.

[Calthrina950]

I think it's becoming more likely Walker could win 50% outright next week, although at this point it's quite possible Republicans win the Senate without this seat.

It was always possible/fairly likely that Republicans could win the Senate without GA.

But yes, one NH poll away from changing my 52R-48D prediction to 54R-46D.

One state poll flips two Senate seats in your prediction?

Not really, but the strong R national trend is undeniable — spending decisions in the House are the clearest indicator here and they suggest we’re in wave territory. Besides, Saint Anselm was the most accurate NH pollster in 2020, so their Bolduc +1 poll is probably the single worst result for Democrats this cycle (NH would not be competitive in a neutral year, even with Hassan's unpopularity).

There are other signs (Johnson routinely leading in WI polling in spite of non-response bias, Laxalt's strength in a state that tends to vote roughly in line with the national popular vote, FL/NV early voting data, etc.), which combined paint a fairly clear picture (at least to me) of what type of night we’re headed for.

It's becoming increasingly obvious to me that this is the case as well - that we are in for a solid Republican wave. So much for the talk about us being in a "neutral environment" and the hope that Roe would stop the wave in it's tracks. Undecided voters are breaking towards Republicans, and they are doing so quite heavily, at the worst possible time for the Democrats. I still think Georgia will go to a runoff, but it's clear that Walker was not put out of commission by his abortion scandals.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does that fit your feeling of what’s happening on the ground, GM? I’m not sure what to make of the black vote percentage in early voting if the split will be so pronounced.

It's hard to say.  I'm not involved in retail politics in the way some of other Georgia members are.  Stephen Fowler is a good reporter, though, so I'm inclined to take his evaluations at face value.