GA-Echelon Insights: Walker + 4
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Author Topic: GA-Echelon Insights: Walker + 4  (Read 1150 times)
2016
Junior Chimp
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« on: November 03, 2022, 10:53:16 AM »
« edited: November 03, 2022, 10:57:34 AM by GeorgiaModerate »

Full Ballot

2-Way

Warnock is collapsing. Makes sense. AA Vote has been steadily declining in Early Voting over the last week.

Full Crosstabs
https://echelonin.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/GA-Midterm-Poll-Crosstabs.pdf
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2022, 10:53:37 AM »

Sure.jan
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2022, 10:57:28 AM »

Extreme outlier.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2022, 10:58:20 AM »

I have changed the title to Walker +4 because that is the full ballot result.
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Woody
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2022, 11:00:26 AM »

Walker is winning this.
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2016
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2022, 11:05:32 AM »

I am saying all along that Kemp will drag him over the Line. This will be the first Domino that will fall on E-Night and from then on it will be plain sailing for us Smiley
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Woody
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2022, 11:06:53 AM »

I am saying all along that Kemp will drag him over the Line. This will be the first Domino that will fall on E-Night and from then on it will be plain sailing for us Smiley
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TheTide
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2022, 11:08:11 AM »

I am saying all along that Kemp will drag him over the Line. This will be the first Domino that will fall on E-Night and from then on it will be plain sailing for us Smiley

Kemptails?
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2022, 11:08:18 AM »

"Definitely" vote is 51-44 Walker in 3-way, 54-43 in 2-way.
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TheTide
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2022, 11:09:19 AM »

"Definitely" vote is 51-44 Walker in 3-way, 54-43 in 2-way.

Pre-Trump Georgia kind of numbers.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2022, 11:12:08 AM »

53-47 senate is looking like the most likely result at this point unfortunately. Maybe if it goes to a runoff and Republicans have already won the senate, Warnock could still pull it off though.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2022, 11:13:01 AM »

Once again, we're in two universes - one where Walker gets the usual 7-10% of the black vote and one where he gets 20%. This is the latter.
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2016
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2022, 11:15:03 AM »

I am saying all along that Kemp will drag him over the Line. This will be the first Domino that will fall on E-Night and from then on it will be plain sailing for us Smiley

Kemptails?
My Projection was that if Kemp wins by 7 or more he would drag Walker over the Line. I am just waiting on a Landmark Communication Poll to confirm.
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Aurelius
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2022, 11:19:56 AM »

Ugh. I would much rather get our seats somewhere else. Please. We don't need the brain-damaged deadbeat dad with a 24/7 abortion shuttle representing our party for the next 6 years.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2022, 11:22:24 AM »

Ugh. I would much rather get our seats somewhere else. Please. We don't need the brain-damaged deadbeat dad with a 24/7 abortion shuttle representing our party for the next 6 years.

Other polls have WARNOCK ahead anyways
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Devils30
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2022, 11:25:49 AM »

GA is the state I’d be most confident in a pro Dem polling miss if anywhere. Warnock will dominate the black vote and Herschel really just isn’t the guy for metro Atlanta’s white college grads or Asians/Hispanic swing voters. Enough of these groups should keep Walker below 50% if not 48%.

Echelon is a garbage pollster- they’ll have stuff like D+2 nationally and R+9 in Georgia.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2022, 11:27:21 AM »

I think Walker clears 50% on election night. 
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citizenZ
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2022, 11:37:34 AM »

I think it's becoming more likely Walker could win 50% outright next week, although at this point it's quite possible Republicans win the Senate without this seat.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2022, 11:38:47 AM »

I think it's becoming more likely Walker could win 50% outright next week, although at this point it's quite possible Republicans win the Senate without this seat.

It was always possible/fairly likely that Republicans could win the Senate without GA.

But yes, one NH poll away from changing my 52R-48D prediction to 54R-46D.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2022, 11:39:06 AM »

I think it's becoming more likely Walker could win 50% outright next week, although at this point it's quite possible Republicans win the Senate without this seat.

Wrong PA, WI, NC and OH are all MOE 5 pts or less where NV and GA are only MOE Rs have more vulnerable seats

Johnson and Oz are below 50% stuck at 45%
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2022, 11:40:19 AM »

I think it's becoming more likely Walker could win 50% outright next week, although at this point it's quite possible Republicans win the Senate without this seat.

It was always possible/fairly likely that Republicans could win the Senate without GA.

But yes, one NH poll away from changing my 52R-48D prediction to 54R-46D.

One state poll flips two Senate seats in your prediction?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2022, 11:41:42 AM »

He doesn't believe Rs are gonna lose a seat and all the R Senate seats are in the MOE WI, PA, NV, and GA as well as OH and NC

News flash Rs forgot we won all the close races in 2020 and GA Runoffs and NY 19 and AK they only won 1 close Eday VA and it was a 3T D administration
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citizenZ
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« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2022, 11:42:11 AM »

I think it's becoming more likely Walker could win 50% outright next week, although at this point it's quite possible Republicans win the Senate without this seat.

It was always possible/fairly likely that Republicans could win the Senate without GA.

But yes, one NH poll away from changing my 52R-48D prediction to 54R-46D.

One state poll flips two Senate seats in your prediction?

I think he meant that the anti-Democrat tide is getting stronger, especially with the "Democracy threats" speeches.

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2022, 11:43:32 AM »

I think it's becoming more likely Walker could win 50% outright next week, although at this point it's quite possible Republicans win the Senate without this seat.

It was always possible/fairly likely that Republicans could win the Senate without GA.

But yes, one NH poll away from changing my 52R-48D prediction to 54R-46D.

One state poll flips two Senate seats in your prediction?

I think he meant that the anti-Democrat tide is getting stronger, especially with the "Democracy threats" speeches.



We have to wait til PROJECTION are MADE It's not over yet for  Ds yet, I wouldn't count out Ds until Rs are declared winners no matter how many polls show tight races not Landslide they're all MOE
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2022, 11:56:14 AM »

I think it's becoming more likely Walker could win 50% outright next week, although at this point it's quite possible Republicans win the Senate without this seat.

It was always possible/fairly likely that Republicans could win the Senate without GA.

But yes, one NH poll away from changing my 52R-48D prediction to 54R-46D.

One state poll flips two Senate seats in your prediction?

Not really, but the strong R national trend is undeniable — spending decisions in the House are the clearest indicator here and they suggest we’re in wave territory. Besides, Saint Anselm was the most accurate NH pollster in 2020, so their Bolduc +1 poll is probably the single worst result for Democrats this cycle (NH would not be competitive in a neutral year, even with Hassan's unpopularity).

There are other signs (Johnson routinely leading in WI polling in spite of non-response bias, Laxalt's strength in a state that tends to vote roughly in line with the national popular vote, FL/NV early voting data, etc.), which combined paint a fairly clear picture (at least to me) of what type of night we’re headed for.
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