Israel General Discussion: Annus Horribilis (user search)
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Hnv1
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« on: November 03, 2022, 01:21:47 AM »
« edited: October 21, 2023, 12:43:29 PM by Hnv1 »

So Bibi killed Cedric Diggory and he's back, or something of this fashion.

Results certified by November 8. The President will grant Bibi the mandate to form a government thereafter.

Step 1 would be to accommodate all the ministries in his new right wing government.

Levine will probably get Justice. It's unclear who would get defence or the treasury. Ben Gvir wants Internal Security but I can see a lot of uproar against him there.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2022, 05:51:08 AM »

The first order of business is to establish his administration, and eliminate all elements of the radical marxist puppets that undermined his Israeli security and stability by collaborating with the US and European left-wing extremists. 

The second order of business is to address the US and European espionage campaigns to interference in Israeli elections through social and multi-media (Like Iran), destabilization of Israeli internal governance and civil order, as well as re-establishing ties with China and Russia as a bargaining chip against any further attempts by the Biden administration to undermine Israeli foreign policy.  A large part of the Bibi vote was due to antipathy towards Washington, and anger at Lepid for dealing with Biden in the run up to the election.  They are also pretty pissed at the Western and Israeli media campaign to sensationalize fabricated, and many times ludicrous, corruption charges against Bibi. 

The third order of business that should be done simultaneously with the second is enact of policies and pursuit of foreign policy that reduces inflation by any and all costs.  Netanyahu should also keep his promise to provide tax credits to families struggling with cost of living expense and free early childhood education initiatives.  A strong economic position is the best form of National Security as has been so clearly demonstrated by NATO countries. 

Lastly, Israel needs to re-establish military relations with all Gulf, ME and Caucus states in preparation for a multinational strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and weapon manufactories.  It is undoubtedly an essential US national security interest to eliminate Iranian weapons programs.  A deal will either have to be worked out with Russia (for Israeli weapons that ends the war) or the USA (for Ukrainian defense) that designates Israel as an untouchable ally.  Israel would be taking a huge risk providing support to Ukraine or Russia.  Whether it's today or tomorrow, the US, or its proxies, must enter Iranian theater.
You seriously need to socialize more.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2022, 08:18:47 AM »

The first order of business is to establish his administration, and eliminate all elements of the radical marxist puppets that undermined his Israeli security and stability by collaborating with the US and European left-wing extremists. 

The second order of business is to address the US and European espionage campaigns to interference in Israeli elections through social and multi-media (Like Iran), destabilization of Israeli internal governance and civil order, as well as re-establishing ties with China and Russia as a bargaining chip against any further attempts by the Biden administration to undermine Israeli foreign policy.  A large part of the Bibi vote was due to antipathy towards Washington, and anger at Lepid for dealing with Biden in the run up to the election.  They are also pretty pissed at the Western and Israeli media campaign to sensationalize fabricated, and many times ludicrous, corruption charges against Bibi. 

The third order of business that should be done simultaneously with the second is enact of policies and pursuit of foreign policy that reduces inflation by any and all costs.  Netanyahu should also keep his promise to provide tax credits to families struggling with cost of living expense and free early childhood education initiatives.  A strong economic position is the best form of National Security as has been so clearly demonstrated by NATO countries. 

Lastly, Israel needs to re-establish military relations with all Gulf, ME and Caucus states in preparation for a multinational strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and weapon manufactories.  It is undoubtedly an essential US national security interest to eliminate Iranian weapons programs.  A deal will either have to be worked out with Russia (for Israeli weapons that ends the war) or the USA (for Ukrainian defense) that designates Israel as an untouchable ally.  Israel would be taking a huge risk providing support to Ukraine or Russia.  Whether it's today or tomorrow, the US, or its proxies, must enter Iranian theater.
You seriously need to socialize more.

I socialize within my Jewish community, and get along with everyone at synagogue.  If you socialized more with actual Jews, you'd realize that the Bibi crowd is rapidly outnumbering the left-wing extremists. This is how I knew Bibi was going to make an easy comeback way in advance.  You're not tricking anyone by calling Bibi and his supporters 'Far-Right'.  You're just pissing off the future stewards of the Holy Land. 
"Stewards of the Holy Land"

For a Jew you sure sound a lot like an evangelical Christian.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2022, 03:32:35 PM »

Well this thread is already exactly as much of a disaster as I would expect.

Nah this is not representative. We usually run out the weirdos from the far right and the tankies quite fast. Israel threads are usually very informative and civil.

Ignoring the fascist, government formation is expected to be pretty fast. Bibi wants to do it in 2 weeks. The Haredim are expected to increase their power from the previous Bibi government. Shas, the second biggest party (assuming Smotrich and Ben Gvir split), traditionally took the Home Ministry for Deri, Religious Affairs and another low-level Ministry. I suspect they'll want to take Home for Deri again because that's where he can do corruption the most, but gotta assume they'll want another high profile Ministry (and Religious Affairs, of course). For UTJ, I think they said something about wanting higher profile Ministries too. Rumours say Housing and Construction (Deputy Minister in a Minister's level) for leader Yitzhak Goldknopf (that's gonna be a jawbreaker) because that allows them to favor haredim in housing, and Moshe Gafni will want to return to funnel money to haredi causes in the Finance Committee. But I gotta assume they'll want another Ministry (or Deputy Ministry with Minister's power yada yada) this time.

For RZ, Smotrich is aiming for one of the big 3 Ministries- Foreign Affairs (very unlikely, I think even he realizes he shouldn't be the face of Israel), Finance or Defense. My guess is he slightly prefers Defence, but probably won't get it because Bibi wouldn't want him in a national security position. So Smotrich is probably our next Finance Minister.

As a side note, Lots of wealthy straight "liberals" are cheering him on for this position because he'll be "responsible" (read: extremely capitalistic for everyone except settlers who'll get fat welfare). They also liked his tenure as Transportation Minister because he answered texts and pretended to work hard (while Michaeli, because she's a shrill leftist woman, gets no credit for overdue longterm investments in public transportation and is mocked for only doing feminist virtue signaling).

Anyway, I assume RZ will want another medium-level Ministry for its 2nd place, Ofir Sofer, and possibly even a third one for Simcha Rothman or Orit Strook. In Otzma, Ben Gvir seems adamant on getting Internal Security, and it seems like Likud is leaning towards granting his request. No other Ministry where I can really see him, he only cares about muscle. However Otzma probably gets a second Ministry for its number 2, some nazi homophobe or another named Itzhak Wasserlauf. Idk yet which one it'll be.

In Likud, as usual, they'll fight for the scraps Netanyahu leaves them. Yariv Levin as Bibi's closest man probably has first choice- he might get Justice if Bibi really decides to go hardcore against the courts, and if not maybe Speaker or Foreign. Miri Regev will probably return to Transportation. Dany Danon wants Knesset Speaker, I think he'll get it only if Bibi's favored (like Levin) get something good. Both Nir Barkat And Yisrael Katz want Finance, but as it'll probably go to Smotrich Bibi will have to find a good consolation prize- maybe the Foreign Ministry (which btw no one seems to want because they know Bibi leaves it to dry and gives no credit to the Minister for anything) or Education. Amir Ohana is another contender for Foreign or another high profile Ministry. Dudi Amsalem is a nuisance who wants Justice, I highly doubt he gets it but Bibi will have to find a consolation price for him. Finally, Yoav Galant is considered likely to get the Defense Ministry. The two Yamina betrayers, Silman and Chikli, are also contenders for Ministries. With so few women, gotta assume Silman gets her wish for the Health Ministry. Idk what Chikli gets- maybe something like Culture and Sports.
I offer a pan-Israeli-posters regulation: the finance\chancellor\treasury ministry will be named the treasury (closer in translation to the Hebrew word).
It is rumored Deri'i is eying the treasury (and putting one past Lieberman). We'll see. Shas will get the first and biggest slice, then UTJ, then Smotric, then Ben Gvir, then Likud.

The speaker will most likely be Akunis and not Danon as Bibi doesn't trust Danon. Levin is 90% guaranteed Justice. Defence will go to Galant. Foreign Office is a tight one for Bibi, and I'll put my money on Ron Dremer as an outside appointment.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2022, 12:26:26 AM »

I offer a pan-Israeli-posters regulation: the finance\chancellor\treasury ministry will be named the treasury (closer in translation to the Hebrew word).
It is rumored Deri'i is eying the treasury (and putting one past Lieberman). We'll see. Shas will get the first and biggest slice, then UTJ, then Smotric, then Ben Gvir, then Likud.

The speaker will most likely be Akunis and not Danon as Bibi doesn't trust Danon. Levin is 90% guaranteed Justice. Defence will go to Galant. Foreign Office is a tight one for Bibi, and I'll put my money on Ron Dremer as an outside appointment.

Deal Tongue Also an outside appointment sounds problematic for Bibi- will really anger the Likud MKs who are clamouring for scraps. If Ohana\Barkat\Katz don't get Foreign, then they have to get another lower Ministry, which means another Likud MK won't get his, etc. Giving Chikli and Silman Ministries will be angering enough.

As for Treasury, if Deri gets it, and Levin gets Justice, where does that leave Smotrich? Education? Transportation? I think he'll cause problems in that case.
Smotric would love to get education…all those budgets he can divert to the religious schools.

I think we’ll see a 40 ministries government with a full Norwegian law. Bibi aims to please as many to ensure his government’s stability. Silman will get a new faux ministry and Shikli something like the Diaspora ministry
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Hnv1
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2022, 02:25:36 AM »
« Edited: November 04, 2022, 03:14:55 AM by Hnv1 »

Ohana to Foreign seems like it would make a lot of sense -- can't think of a different empty-suit Bibist likely to play well in Western media? Katz was already a disaster once (...though I guess that doesn't mean he can't be brought back), whereas that seems like a threateningly high position for someone like Barkat who reads to me as an actually plausible alternative to Bibi himself.

(Also it would feel very strange if Levin didn't get Justice after placing first in the Likud primaries on a platform of reforming the legal system. Would that indicate Bibi sees him as a threat, or is it that he wouldn't actually be very well-suited for such a role?)
Bibi doesn’t see him as a threat. Levine is his de facto majordomo in politics. Levine conducts the coalition talks solo (he used to pair with Elkin) and the 2016 Bibi-Herzog talks revealed he also has a level of influence over Bibi.

That being said Levine is an unbending ideologue and if he gets the ministry he will demand the massive reforms he advocates for years. Bibi might not want to charge head on to a battle with the courts just yet.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2022, 03:40:37 AM »

Rumors that Netanyahu is going to keep the one-seat Noam out of the coalition. Like I thought, they got Avi Maoz to say outrageous homophobic stuff to scare the LGBT community and then pretend to protect us by keeping him out, while giving the worst activist homophobes from the Otzma and RZ list a ton of unchecked powers on issues of health and rights, and gutting the ability of the courts to protect us
Classic Israeli pink washing. Maoz will be out, Ohana will get the Foreign Office, and internally the government could repress minorities but host a pompous pride parade in Tel Aviv.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2022, 11:27:51 AM »

Classic Israeli pink washing. Maoz will be out, Ohana will get the Foreign Office, and internally the government could repress minorities but host a pompous pride parade in Tel Aviv.
Not "pink washing" if Netanyahu keeps his promise and the new government does not roll back any gay rights.
Since when is not rolling back rights an accomplishment to be proud of?

Anyhow my point was that LGBT rights were never under real risk, it’s quite a politically lucrative cow to milk and Israel is a seasoned milkman. Ethnic minorities on the other hand might actually meet adversarial government policy and they don’t enjoy the PR lobby the gay community has.
The pink washing would be parading Ohana around the world as our gay foreign secretary
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Hnv1
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« Reply #8 on: November 10, 2022, 09:02:45 AM »

Coalition talks will be concluded rather fast as any government sworn in the next 14 days will, on paper, govern for five years instead of four. The reason is some obscure wording of the Basic Law: Knesset that states:
Term of the Knesset
after dissolution
36. Once the Knesset has decided to dissolve itself, the following Knesset shall continue to serve until the closest month of Heshvan after the termination of four years from its elections.

As we are in Heshvan, this might imply a five years tenure.


Deri'i is going to the treasury. I think he will be relatively quiet, and Bibi will run things from the PM's office.
Smotric will get defense, but Bibi will bypass him on everything as he did to Liberman.
Ohana to the foreign office and Levine to justice will conclude the great offices of the state.

expect an influx of faux ministries to accommodate all the egomaniacs in Likud


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Hnv1
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« Reply #9 on: November 13, 2022, 02:39:56 AM »

Foreign posters:
This is a thread for the tidbits of everyday Israeli politics. Any profound thoughts on the strategic aspects of the conflict can go into one of a dozen other threads where our "panel of experts" weighs in. Please do not clog this thread with random takes about the conflict.

thank you.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #10 on: November 17, 2022, 05:43:49 AM »

Government formation in Israel is, as usual, slow.
The main obstacle is that Smotric wants one of the Treasury or Defence, when Bibi hates any independent minded people around him (no he does not care about Biden as some suggest).

It appears the incoming coalition will first elect a new speaker and then amend the basic law is some way that will allow Deri'i to be appointed minister despite him recent tax offenses conviction.


Galon announced she steps down as chair of Meretz. It seems everyone wants to see the party die, but perhaps Golan will flex to grab it. Considering the substantial debt the party's in I can't see any benefit in taking it
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Hnv1
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« Reply #11 on: November 17, 2022, 07:06:30 AM »

Government formation in Israel is, as usual, slow.
The main obstacle is that Smotric wants one of the Treasury or Defence, when Bibi hates any independent minded people around him (no he does not care about Biden as some suggest).

It appears the incoming coalition will first elect a new speaker and then amend the basic law is some way that will allow Deri'i to be appointed minister despite him recent tax offenses conviction.


Galon announced she steps down as chair of Meretz. It seems everyone wants to see the party die, but perhaps Golan will flex to grab it. Considering the substantial debt the party's in I can't see any benefit in taking it

Are people inside Meretz actually willing to let it go, along with their influence and jobs etc?
There's not much influence left outside of the Knesset. The jobs are nominal as the staff was already cut down years ago, and without public funding even those jobs can't be sustained.
Representatives in local councils will seek joining other green\left lists as the funding will stop, and representatives in places like the Histadrut or the Zionist Congress will create new factions towards the next elections there.

I think a majority wants to shut things down. Some advocate calling people to join Labour and influence from the inside there. Others seek to form some NGO that will work outside of Parliament. In general there's a broad consensus that by the next election Meretz will certainly not run alone even if it exists.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #12 on: November 28, 2022, 12:56:46 AM »

Foreign posters:
This is a thread for the tidbits of everyday Israeli politics. Any profound thoughts on the strategic aspects of the conflict can go into one of a dozen other threads where our "panel of experts" weighs in. Please do not clog this thread with random takes about the conflict.

thank you.

Hey. Reminder!!! Stop conflictposting unless it's relevant current news about Israeli politics. Take your debatesTM elsewhere please.

Anyway, Likud and Noam signed a coalition agreement, MK Avi Maoz will be a Deputy Minister and head an "Agency for Jewish and National identity". So there will be an official government agency whose leader's single most important issue is harassing the LGBTQ community, women etc. I will say part of what he's being given is Nativ, the agency aimed at former Soviet Jews, which he has actual experience on from past activism against the iron curtain.
This is actually not bad in the, I believe this is internet lingo, accelerationist way.

Bibi tended to curb the enthusiasm of his religious buddies to sustain his secular base in Likud. Letting the Haredi and Smotric\Noam run amok will create 6-10 mandates of really pissed centre-right voters by the next elections. Especially from former USSR immigrants
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Hnv1
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« Reply #13 on: December 01, 2022, 03:13:01 AM »

I'm not usually the alarmist type of guy but I have to say that I give very high probability (>0.Cool to civil unrest breaking in Arab villages and cities within Israel in the coming year. I also give high probability (>0.3) to political violence between Jews erupting soon.

It all feels very shaky atm. If the police will respond violently to the coming protests against the conflict things can kick off like a Leeds away day in the West Midlands (example to make it clear to foreign posters)
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Hnv1
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« Reply #14 on: December 08, 2022, 11:47:15 AM »

Oh and yesterday, incoming Finance Minister Smotrich talked about his economic philosophy: "socialism and capitalism were tried, but no one tried this- if we apply the laws of the Torah, we'll have economic prosperity."

Good luck...
Excellent, we can start with the numerous client I took pro bono over the years who accumulated debt they couldn't pay (primarily to public bodies that failed to inform them) and then had the courts kick them around for years.

The Torah mandates all monetary debts are wiped out every seven years.


ANR I thought we agreed on the Treasury instead of finance. It's bad enough that the Industry and Commerce ministry became the Economy ministry. Now we'll have 4-8 ministries with National\Social in their names...we must keep the translations as uniform as possible!
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Hnv1
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« Reply #15 on: December 13, 2022, 02:06:54 AM »
« Edited: December 13, 2022, 02:11:48 AM by Hnv1 »

I think it's grand.

whenever the Haredi push it too much the Likud loses secular voters to the centre (2003, 2013). Their greed will cost them a lotץ

Yariv Levin does not want to take Ministry of Justice as Bibi won't pledge to fulfill the constitutional coup, which leads me to believe it's not going to happen. Bibi will simply wave a big sword over the judges' head and the AG pushing for a relaxed plea bargain.
Poor right wing voters actually thought Bibi cares about their ideology.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #16 on: December 21, 2022, 01:56:19 AM »


Of course. I've called this for a decade now.

In most countries the youth lean left, but in Israel they are reactionary religious conservatives. It won't be long before gay rights are rolled back there too making Israel even more indistinguishable from the neighbors it constantly claims moral superiority over.

Any evidence on the LGBTQ rights part?

Israel is unique politically on the matter, with those on the left actually less accepting of gay people than those in the center. I would assume part of this is similar to Reagan nostalgia in that older Israelis remember the old leftist governments.

Younger Israelis lean more to the right in terms of hating Palestinians, but the idea that most of them have Iranian-level takes on LGBTQ rights is comical.
I don’t think the Israeli left is less accepting of gay people than the centre. The centre likes their rich gay men and women but I don’t think you’ll find queer/trans issues penetrate right of Meretz. If by left you mean the Arab parties then yes but it’s not on leftist ground like the Greek communists, and calling them left is a little superficial.

Among some of the veterans (me included) there is sometimes a sense where LGBT topics come instead of the Palestinian issue and turns us into a sectarian bloc instead of offering a more comprehensive ideology that can speak to most Israelis on their terms. And a lot of us have a very leftist objection to funding the commodification of children in the third world so rich Israeli gays could form families.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #17 on: December 21, 2022, 02:23:12 AM »


Of course. I've called this for a decade now.

In most countries the youth lean left, but in Israel they are reactionary religious conservatives. It won't be long before gay rights are rolled back there too making Israel even more indistinguishable from the neighbors it constantly claims moral superiority over.

Any evidence on the LGBTQ rights part?

Israel is unique politically on the matter, with those on the left actually less accepting of gay people than those in the center. I would assume part of this is similar to Reagan nostalgia in that older Israelis remember the old leftist governments.

Younger Israelis lean more to the right in terms of hating Palestinians, but the idea that most of them have Iranian-level takes on LGBTQ rights is comical.
I don’t think the Israeli left is less accepting of gay people than the centre. The centre likes their rich gay men and women but I don’t think you’ll find queer/trans issues penetrate right of Meretz. If by left you mean the Arab parties then yes but it’s not on leftist ground like the Greek communists, and calling them left is a little superficial.

Among some of the veterans (me included) there is sometimes a sense where LGBT topics come instead of the Palestinian issue and turns us into a sectarian bloc instead of offering a more comprehensive ideology that can speak to most Israelis on their terms. And a lot of us have a very leftist objection to funding the commodification of children in the third world so rich Israeli gays could form families.

On that note are positions like Netanyahu's in terms of LGBT rights (support with a mandatory 'we are much better than the Arab countries on this issue' at the end) common?
Bibi has a position? I’ve been hearing him since the 90’s and not once did he have any clear stand on social issues or advocated some policy. All political issues for him are reduced in their instrumental utility advancing foreign policy. Even his Laisser-faire positions evaporated. He gets free hand in foreign policy and his partners milk the public fund.

And yes, the right, but even more so the centre, likes the bragging about gay rights over our neighbours.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #18 on: December 22, 2022, 01:04:32 AM »

Bibi notified the president he has formed a government, a confidence vote will take place by Monday, January 2.

After a hard squeeze Likud agreed that the next coalition will legislate a Basic Law: Torah Learning that will prevent judicial review of the draft exemption law (if your memory serves you well that's what started this whole thing in 2019).
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Hnv1
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« Reply #19 on: December 26, 2022, 08:12:50 AM »

Can you maybe have this discussion elsewhere? Can I be made a mod of just this thread to maintain order? I guess we'll never know.


The confidence vote is set for Thursday morning. atm Degel HaTorah are pissed and may skip the vote
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Hnv1
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« Reply #20 on: December 28, 2022, 02:14:21 PM »
« Edited: December 29, 2022, 02:03:26 AM by Hnv1 »

The next government:
PM - Bibi
Defence - Yoav Galant (Likud)
Foreign office - still undecided. A possible rotation between Cohn and Katz (Likud) where the other one will be the Energy Minister meanwhile.
Justice - Levine (Likud). sh**t hits the fan
Home office + Health - Deri’i Shas
Education- Yoav Kisch (Likud)
National Security (formerly internal security) - Ben Gvir
Housing - Goldknopf (UTJ)
Agriculture - Dichter (Likud)
Transportation - Regev (Likud)
Communication - Kari’i (Likud)
Immigration - Sofer (RZ)
Welfare - Margi (Shas)
Tourism - Haim Katz (Likud)
Economy - Nir Barkat (Likud)
Environment- Idit Sliman (Likud)
Religious affairs - Malchieli (Shas)

There will be numerous other faux ministries of no importance

Speaker - Ohana (Likud)


Edelstein, Amsalem, Danon and Bitan are out of cabinet and will be a pain in Bibi’s arse in the house.


This is hands down the worst government Israel ever had. There will be blood.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #21 on: December 29, 2022, 04:41:54 AM »

Eli Cohen will be the foreign minister for a year while Katz will take energy, and then they switch. Peak banter from Bibi.

Ron Dremer, the former ambassador to Washington and GOP man, will be made "Minister of Strategic Affairs", while former MK Tzachi Hanegbi will be made head of the national security council. This government is going to push for a hawkish stand, and possibly even armed conflict, with Iran.

By pushing all the relatively independent-minded-though-not-liberal MKs out of cabinet Bibi is causing himself a future headache. I can see someone like Bitan or Gamliel voting against some judicial reforms.


Bibi is taking his presidential perspective to the extreme. From Primus inter pares to president for foreign affairs and bystander in internal affairs.
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« Reply #22 on: December 29, 2022, 06:00:18 AM »
« Edited: December 29, 2022, 07:19:48 AM by Hnv1 »

Yariv Levine will get the nominal, but devoid of any real authority, title of Vice PM. Deri'i will be the Deputy PM (likewise devoid of legal power). Bibi was always reluctant to give Likud ministers the title of second in command (Silvan Shalom managed to squeeze it in 2015 in dubious circumstances), but Levine got a significant boost as future heir. Interesting as another speculated heir - Ron Dremer - also entered the fray.

Some ministries are held by "custodians" as Bibi likes to keep a wiggle room to buy off opponents later. Yariv Levine will also be the Minister for the Intelligence Community, Kisch will also begin as the Minister for regional cooperation, and Shikli will be both the Minister for Diaspora Affairs and the Minister for Social Equality.

Edit: Gamliel caved, and will be appoint Minister for the Intelligence Community on Sunday.
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« Reply #23 on: December 31, 2022, 04:13:21 AM »

From what I've been reading it seems people think that this government could actually last the whole time it is supposed to last. This seems strange to me since A) the only thing Bibi's government seem to have in common is being utterly atrocious bigoted clowns, and their majority isn't that much bigger than the various 2018-2022 circus governments and B) Israeli politics seems to be generally unstable.
The polarization leads to the solidification of opinions. There aren't many/any moderate Likud members, so the gap with the rest was closed. They also don't care about criticism anymore. Hence, a pretty narrow majority of 64-56 translates to 64 MKs with minor differences between them and an ill will to capitalize on this unexpected power. All the parties in the coalition would want to squeeze this lemon to the max.
They treat the election results as a majority to form a government and a revolutionary majority that will sit as a constituent assembly for the next four years and change constitutional norms left and right.
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« Reply #24 on: December 31, 2022, 04:18:57 AM »

From what I've been reading it seems people think that this government could actually last the whole time it is supposed to last. This seems strange to me since A) the only thing Bibi's government seem to have in common is being utterly atrocious bigoted clowns, and their majority isn't that much bigger than the various 2018-2022 circus governments and B) Israeli politics seems to be generally unstable.

This is something I have also been sceptical of from the start - and surprised so many others aren't.

I think what might make it a little more stable is that many of the worst elements have nowhere else to go. The more center-right parties Bibi has to work with can abandon the coalition and throw things into chaos, and they have the option of working with Lapid after the next election. Ben-Gvir and his ilk can't sink the coalition because Bibi didn't go far enough for them, because the best-case scenario after the next election would just find them in the same situation. So the most likely scenario might be that the coalition just muddles through for a few years, restrained from its most maximalist goals.

This assumes Ben Gvir can’t go up in the polls, when he’s got a pulpit as the hardline head of police to run from. I think it’s perfectly plausible that he finds himself in a situation where he no longer needs Netanyahu and brings him down to get a bigger slice of the government for himself.

Does that not assume that giving the far right or whatever one calls them a bigger pound of flesh would not drive more centrist parts of the coalition or their voters into opposition? Or perhaps there really is a majority for hard right policies, and the only restraint is the prospect of international sanction.

I wonder if living in a tough neighborhood tends to coarsen people. Where is Golda Meir when you need her?

What centrist parts? the marginally centrist section of Likud's electorate left would perhaps be uncomfortable giving too much to UTJ or Noam as they dislike Haredi. Otzma is just an extension of the populist wing in Likud. Demographically and ideologically. If the centrists do somehow reclaim Likud, I could see the populist wing going with Ben Gvir to form a populist-Sephardi party. But as I said I don't think there are many centrists left, as much abandoned ship in different phases since 2013 (and to wider extent 2004)
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