Israel General Discussion: Annus Horribilis

[Coldstream]

According to the agreement between Likud and Otzma, they will repeal the section that cites "racist incitement" as a reason to ban a candidate or party, which is the section used to ban Marzel and Ben Ari. Looking forward to our newest nazi stars next election!

Additionally, journalists Nadav Eyal reported about black lists the Noam party compiled of out LGBT people in the media, in education, government organizations, NGOs and more.

Even if empowering fascist thugs like Otzma wasn’t immoral, I can’t help feeling Netanyahu is also being monumentally stupid? Surely by bringing them in to the mainstream and normalising/legitimising them it’ll threaten his electoral base going forward. He may well be signing his own death warrant going forwards.

[Coldstream]

I think you will find Palestine is recognised by more than just "a few poor countries".

Plus they have some other notable trappings of statehood such as competing in sporting events - not true generally of Somaliland or Western Sahara (to take just two seemingly similar examples)

Palestine got let in to the IOC after the Oslo accords, when it seemed like a formal/permanent peace treaty with Israel was on the way - it’s quite a sad relic of what might have been.

Though now that you mention it it is quite galling that Palestine are allowed to compete when Western Sahara aren’t given that no one (aside from a hasty quid pro quo from the US) recognises the Moroccan occupation.

[Coldstream]

From what I've been reading it seems people think that this government could actually last the whole time it is supposed to last. This seems strange to me since A) the only thing Bibi's government seem to have in common is being utterly atrocious bigoted clowns, and their majority isn't that much bigger than the various 2018-2022 circus governments and B) Israeli politics seems to be generally unstable.

This is something I have also been sceptical of from the start - and surprised so many others aren't.

I think what might make it a little more stable is that many of the worst elements have nowhere else to go. The more center-right parties Bibi has to work with can abandon the coalition and throw things into chaos, and they have the option of working with Lapid after the next election. Ben-Gvir and his ilk can't sink the coalition because Bibi didn't go far enough for them, because the best-case scenario after the next election would just find them in the same situation. So the most likely scenario might be that the coalition just muddles through for a few years, restrained from its most maximalist goals.

This assumes Ben Gvir can’t go up in the polls, when he’s got a pulpit as the hardline head of police to run from. I think it’s perfectly plausible that he finds himself in a situation where he no longer needs Netanyahu and brings him down to get a bigger slice of the government for himself.

[Coldstream]

From what I've been reading it seems people think that this government could actually last the whole time it is supposed to last. This seems strange to me since A) the only thing Bibi's government seem to have in common is being utterly atrocious bigoted clowns, and their majority isn't that much bigger than the various 2018-2022 circus governments and B) Israeli politics seems to be generally unstable.

This is something I have also been sceptical of from the start - and surprised so many others aren't.

I think what might make it a little more stable is that many of the worst elements have nowhere else to go. The more center-right parties Bibi has to work with can abandon the coalition and throw things into chaos, and they have the option of working with Lapid after the next election. Ben-Gvir and his ilk can't sink the coalition because Bibi didn't go far enough for them, because the best-case scenario after the next election would just find them in the same situation. So the most likely scenario might be that the coalition just muddles through for a few years, restrained from its most maximalist goals.

This assumes Ben Gvir can’t go up in the polls, when he’s got a pulpit as the hardline head of police to run from. I think it’s perfectly plausible that he finds himself in a situation where he no longer needs Netanyahu and brings him down to get a bigger slice of the government for himself.

Does that not assume that giving the far right or whatever one calls them a bigger pound of flesh would not drive more centrist parts of the coalition or their voters into opposition? Or perhaps there really is a majority for hard right policies, and the only restraint is the prospect of international sanction.

I wonder if living in a tough neighborhood tends to coarsen people. Where is Golda Meir when you need her?

What centrists exactly? All the centrists (israeli context) within the party left Likud or got purged. The coalition is Netanyahu’s loyalists, the ultra orthodox and different shades of far right between OY, RZP & Noam. There is no reason beyond wishful thinking to believe people who are okay with Ben Gvir being in government would oppose him being PM.

Sure, Netanyahu could ape Mitterand and destroy the far right & take their voters, and he’s probably one of the few who could - but history is more than full of warnings of the danger of letting the far right in.

[Coldstream]

Is there any chance Otzma’s overreach will create a backlash that can bring the whole of the right down?

[Coldstream]

If Israel chooses to leave the ranks of democracies, it should no longer be treated as a democracy, with fascist thugs like Smotrich & Ben Gvir in the government they’ve done so. I’ve been a supporter of Israel all my life and it pains me to say it but I can’t defend them anymore, it’s incumbent on America & the West to take concrete action if they won’t step back from the brink.

[Coldstream]

The Israeli people need to stay on the streets, and take the fight to anyone who joins Ben Gvir’s fascist militia, they’ve done well so far and they can bring their country back from the brink if they hold fast. Solidarity!