Israel General Discussion: Annus Horribilis

[Torie]

In my relative ignorance, Israel has moved to a very bad place, that has the potential if the policies endorsed to form a government sever over time the ties that bind and sustain Israel from the West. Maybe the Israeli government thinks it has a blank check from the West. If so, that might prove to be an incredibly tragic misjudgement for Israel. Where it is going I don't think can stand. It's just so wrong - hubris run wild. And no, Putin, just won't do as a substitute for Israel. He probably has even a shorter half life.

I dissent.

[Torie]

If this is the wrong thread for this, along with my other post here for that matter, and the responses (yes I did read the chastisements), someone can move it. It is not as if there is another thread that is readily visible, at least to me, and the idea of starting a new thread, on a board that I don’t feel really comfortable in in any event, seems inappropriate.

Anyway, it seems to already being hitting the fan, with whatever degree of seriousness I guess remains to be seen. One question I have, is about this chat about expelling Israeli Arabs (to where I don’t know). Is that a policy that is in real play, and being seriously considered? If that happens, that seems to be a real breaking point to me, vis a vis the West, including in particular the US, and it should be. But maybe the chat is just that, and not in serious play. Anyone have any informed opinions on that point? A codicil is what is the fate of the West Bank Arabs who don’t even have the status of being Israeli citizens sitting on land where their presence is unwanted.

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/12/29/695382/Biden--US-will-oppose-Israeli-policies-that-endanger-two-state-solution

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3791455-us-rabbis-warn-of-irreparable-harm-from-new-israeli-government/

And the NYT has this among other things:

“ … more than a hundred retired Israeli ambassadors and senior Foreign Ministry officials took the extraordinary step of signing a letter to Mr. Netanyahu this week expressing their “profound concern” at the potential harm to Israel’s strategic relations.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/29/world/middleeast/israel-netanyahu-government-swearing-in.html?searchResultPosition=3

[Torie]

If this is the wrong thread for this, along with my other post here for that matter, and the responses (yes I did read the chastisements), someone can move it. It is not as if there is another thread that is readily visible, at least to me, and the idea of starting a new thread, on a board that I don’t feel really comfortable in in any event, seems inappropriate.

Anyway, it seems to already being hitting the fan, with whatever degree of seriousness I guess remains to be seen. One question I have, is about this chat about expelling Israeli Arabs (to where I don’t know). Is that a policy that is in real play, and being seriously considered? If that happens, that seems to be a real breaking point to me, vis a vis the West, including in particular the US, and it should be. But maybe the chat is just that, and not in serious play. Anyone have any informed opinions on that point? A codicil is what is the fate of the West Bank Arabs who don’t even have the status of being Israeli citizens sitting on land where their presence is unwanted.

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/12/29/695382/Biden--US-will-oppose-Israeli-policies-that-endanger-two-state-solution

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3791455-us-rabbis-warn-of-irreparable-harm-from-new-israeli-government/

And the NYT has this among other things:

“ … more than a hundred retired Israeli ambassadors and senior Foreign Ministry officials took the extraordinary step of signing a letter to Mr. Netanyahu this week expressing their “profound concern” at the potential harm to Israel’s strategic relations.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/29/world/middleeast/israel-netanyahu-government-swearing-in.html?searchResultPosition=3

Just from talking to the people I know there, no, I don't believe expelling Israeli Arabs is remotely on the table. That would almost definitely collapse the coalition immediately, for good reason.

My suspicion is that the worst part of this administration will be the sociopath caucus frequently making ridiculous threats and proposals that will keep the government in a constant state of controversy and dispute with its allies.

Are you referring there to a caucus in Israel or a Pub caucus? 

Thank you for the response.

[Torie]

From what I've been reading it seems people think that this government could actually last the whole time it is supposed to last. This seems strange to me since A) the only thing Bibi's government seem to have in common is being utterly atrocious bigoted clowns, and their majority isn't that much bigger than the various 2018-2022 circus governments and B) Israeli politics seems to be generally unstable.

This is something I have also been sceptical of from the start - and surprised so many others aren't.

I think what might make it a little more stable is that many of the worst elements have nowhere else to go. The more center-right parties Bibi has to work with can abandon the coalition and throw things into chaos, and they have the option of working with Lapid after the next election. Ben-Gvir and his ilk can't sink the coalition because Bibi didn't go far enough for them, because the best-case scenario after the next election would just find them in the same situation. So the most likely scenario might be that the coalition just muddles through for a few years, restrained from its most maximalist goals.

This assumes Ben Gvir can’t go up in the polls, when he’s got a pulpit as the hardline head of police to run from. I think it’s perfectly plausible that he finds himself in a situation where he no longer needs Netanyahu and brings him down to get a bigger slice of the government for himself.

Does that not assume that giving the far right or whatever one calls them a bigger pound of flesh would not drive more centrist parts of the coalition or their voters into opposition? Or perhaps there really is a majority for hard right policies, and the only restraint is the prospect of international sanction.

I wonder if living in a tough neighborhood tends to coarsen people. Where is Golda Meir when you need her?

[Torie]

From what I've been reading it seems people think that this government could actually last the whole time it is supposed to last. This seems strange to me since A) the only thing Bibi's government seem to have in common is being utterly atrocious bigoted clowns, and their majority isn't that much bigger than the various 2018-2022 circus governments and B) Israeli politics seems to be generally unstable.

This is something I have also been sceptical of from the start - and surprised so many others aren't.

I think what might make it a little more stable is that many of the worst elements have nowhere else to go. The more center-right parties Bibi has to work with can abandon the coalition and throw things into chaos, and they have the option of working with Lapid after the next election. Ben-Gvir and his ilk can't sink the coalition because Bibi didn't go far enough for them, because the best-case scenario after the next election would just find them in the same situation. So the most likely scenario might be that the coalition just muddles through for a few years, restrained from its most maximalist goals.

This assumes Ben Gvir can’t go up in the polls, when he’s got a pulpit as the hardline head of police to run from. I think it’s perfectly plausible that he finds himself in a situation where he no longer needs Netanyahu and brings him down to get a bigger slice of the government for himself.

Does that not assume that giving the far right or whatever one calls them a bigger pound of flesh would not drive more centrist parts of the coalition or their voters into opposition? Or perhaps there really is a majority for hard right policies, and the only restraint is the prospect of international sanction.

I wonder if living in a tough neighborhood tends to coarsen people. Where is Golda Meir when you need her?

What centrists exactly? All the centrists (israeli context) left Likud or got purged. The coalition is Netanyahu’s loyalists, the ultra orthodox and different shades of far right between OY, RZP & Noam. There is no reason beyond wishful thinking to believe people who are okay with Ben Gvir being in government would oppose him being PM.

Sure, Netanyahu could ape Mitterand and destroy the far right & take their voters, and he’s probably one of the few who could - but history is more than full of warnings of the danger of letting the far right in.

If the hard right has a majority that will not be eroded by the government catering to its policies preferences, than the only check to more Draconian policies is international sanctions.
I was asking questions. I don't purport to know much about the dynamics of Israel politics.

[Torie]

Israel's repeal of Marbury v Madison, the better to expedite the transition to a more theocratic autocratic state has not found universal favor in Israel. Perhaps Israel has decided to compete with Russia as to just what percentage of its educated population will exit to escape a bad place.

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-728524

[Torie]

How dependent is Israel on the US these days and the good will of its government? Maybe Israel has reached a place where it feels free to tell the US to take a hike.

[Torie]

Anyone have any speculation as to what the end game of this initiative to emasculate the judiciary will be? At what point will the ongoing evolution of Israel if it continues precipitate a substantial increase in emigration, as particularly young people just give up on the place?

[Torie]

I was watching last night an interview with this very articulate history professor at U of M knowledgeable about Israel, and he did not expect much of the planned Blinken visit to Israel. He expected him to mouth platitudes about a two state solution, and so forth, that is dead in the water. I then looked up what happened with the Blinken trip. It appears next to nothing. Does anyone have an opinion of what he accomplished, and the impact of the visit, other than the null set, and mouthing of platitudes?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-pA23q4eZ8

[Torie]

I wonder what Tony Blinken is telling the Israeli government behind closed doors.

So many governments around the world seem to be going "bad" at once at present. (Biden replacing Trump being an exception of course.)

The thing is, is that one of the two major parties in the US probably likes the shift in Israel. And that is a problem. It is tough to fashion a national foreign policy on various issues with a substantial consensus.

[Torie]

It appears the government is moving back from the brink.

https://www.heritagefl.com/story/2023/03/17/news/justice-minister-hails-proposed-compromise-on-israeli-supreme-court-reform/17972.html

[Torie]

It appears the government is moving back from the brink.

https://www.heritagefl.com/story/2023/03/17/news/justice-minister-hails-proposed-compromise-on-israeli-supreme-court-reform/17972.html

That’s a faux compromise that is many way worse than their plan.

How so as in it's worse?

[Torie]

Isn't the number of protesters that voted for any of the government parties about zero?

There's probably some that voted Likud. But it doesn't matter - nearly half the country thinks this "reform" is the end of democracy, and it includes refusing to serve in the IDF's reserve, not investing money in the country, possibly leaving. This protest movement is unprecedented in Israel's history. The government has no legitimacy to pass this.

Looks like the court nullification bill has been shelved for the time being. They're still moving ahead with some limited bills to limit the court's power to disqualify corrupt officials and the like.

Not really. The bill they're moving ahead with is the most important one that will end the separation of branches by giving the coalition practical control of judicial appointments, and no one said anything about shelving the rest. Nothing dramatic happened, idk where you got the news that the government retreated from this

The party in power usually has the whip hand in judicial appointments, no? The issue is whether the appointments occur in the ordinary course of vacancies, or you have a court expansion or packing scheme (which I vehemently oppose in the US), it seems to me. I appreciate Israel has its court at present very insulated, but moving more towards the US model would be hard to characterize as abandoning the rule of law per se.

I did look up how the UK does it, and it was incredibly complicated, so I don't think very replicable.

[Torie]

Isn't the number of protesters that voted for any of the government parties about zero?

There's probably some that voted Likud. But it doesn't matter - nearly half the country thinks this "reform" is the end of democracy, and it includes refusing to serve in the IDF's reserve, not investing money in the country, possibly leaving. This protest movement is unprecedented in Israel's history. The government has no legitimacy to pass this.

Looks like the court nullification bill has been shelved for the time being. They're still moving ahead with some limited bills to limit the court's power to disqualify corrupt officials and the like.

Not really. The bill they're moving ahead with is the most important one that will end the separation of branches by giving the coalition practical control of judicial appointments, and no one said anything about shelving the rest. Nothing dramatic happened, idk where you got the news that the government retreated from this

The party in power usually has the whip hand in judicial appointments, no? The issue is whether the appointments occur in the ordinary course of vacancies, or you have a court expansion or packing scheme (which I vehemently oppose in the US), it seems to me. I appreciate Israel has it's court at present very insulated, but moving more towards the US model would be hard to characterize as abandoning the rule of law per se.

I did look up how the UK does it, and it was incredibly complicated, so I don't think very replicable.

In Israel there's a committee made up of 2 MKs, 2 Ministers, 3 judges and 2 bar association representatives. You need 7 votes to appoint judges, so both the coalition and judges have a veto.

It's certainly fair to make some changes, but the current system is fairly balanced. The new government legislation would change it to give the coalition an absolute majority (with some quirks). This ends the separation of branches. It's not comparable to the US system because in the US there's a strong separation between the legislative and executive branches.

Another issue is that this legislation will also let the coalition decide which judge becomes chief justice (rather than seniority). It's terrible on its own because it means Supreme Court judges will need to be liked by the government. In the US, once a judge is appointed they don't need to care about the government or congress.

The chief justice in the US does not have much more power than the rest (just the power to assign cases if in the majority). Does the chief justice in Israel have so much more power than the rest on the bench that it is worth whoring for?

You mention the lack of separation of powers. Can parliament overturn a judicial decision on a vote? Does Israel have a Constitution that you need a supra majority to change?

[Torie]

I guess Biden's call did not deflect Bibi from destiny.

https://www.axios.com/2023/03/19/biden-netanyahu-judicial-overhaul-phone-call

[Torie]

The NYT’s White House sources seem to think that it had much to do with causing the pause.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/27/us/politics/biden-israel-netanyahu.html

By Sunday night, White House officials came to two conclusions. The first was that Mr. Netanyahu had deeply miscalculated when he announced the firing of the defense minister, Yoav Gallant, who had publicly called for suspending efforts to pass the legislation that would alter how judges are appointed.

The second conclusion, they said, was that Mr. Netanyahu was looking for a way out of the crisis, and benefited from telling the right-wing partners in his fragile coalition that he could not risk losing the support of Israel’s most important ally. His message, one senior official said, was that Israel could soon face a crisis with Iran, which is creeping ever closer to a nuclear weapons capability, and that he could not afford to alienate Washington.

So when Mr. Netanyahu announced on Monday in Israel that “when there is a possibility of preventing a civil war though dialogue,” he would “take a time out for dialogue,” they read it as a message to the far-right members of his coalition that he had no other choice.


And a series of commentary articles. Not explicitly addressed is are there 61 votes to pass the proposed restructuring or some facsimile thereof at this point?

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/experts-react-netanyahu-just-delayed-his-judicial-overhaul-after-mass-protests-whats-next-for-israels-democracy/

[Torie]

The government is expected to agree on a 1.5% budget cut for all government ministries (including Defense, Education and Health) in order to increase Ben Gvir's budget for establishing his personal militia.

Is the link between the two explicit? 

If the private militia starts beating demonstrators up (that is its purpose, no?), attended by severe personal injuries, would not that just blow the lid off everything, and force some reaction from the US?

[Torie]

Who here is willing to state the pros and cons of this bill? I understand it eliminates the "reasonableness" standard for policy decisions as a vehicle of the Israel high court to invalidare laws and regulations, which I might add would never be accepted in the US as a jurisprudential benchmark for judgement. But terms, and terms of art, might be different in Isreal.

This site should be about providing information, and empowering based on that, and not invective.

I have a dream. I am an idealist. Sue me.

[Torie]

What happens if the Israel Supreme Court invalidates a law that curtails its own power? That seems like the ultimate Constitutional crisis.

Israel’s High Court to Hear Case Against Netanyahu’s Judicial Overhaul

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/26/world/middleeast/israel-supreme-court-judicial-overhaul-netanyahu.html

Addendum: The post below makes no sense, but assuming it is about American policy, it would be most unfortunate if US policy towards Israel careened wildly depending on which party was in power. In the meantime, while religious conservative Jews might like the drift in Israel, liberal secular Jews I would think are running to the exits, and thus the potential party divide would be replicated, and perhaps more emphatically, within the American Jewish community itself. What is Jerry Nadler and Mr. Goldman going to do?