Israel General Discussion: Annus Horribilis

[CumbrianLefty]

Bibi's U-turn: Netanyahu "re-hires" Yoav Gallant as Defense Minister.

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1645537053499871232

Terrific stuff, really shouts out "I know exactly what I am doing".

[Oryxslayer]

Seriously? After several defections (starting arguably with Bennett), and new attempts to create a Bibi-less Likud-style party, surely whoever is in Likud now is a die hard?

Not everyone. Bitan, Edelstein, I. Katz, Barkat, Danon, and others are not Bibi enthusiasts and are loyal to various extents with varying motivations. They won't form a breakaway faction (well Edelstein might leave but that's about it) though, only pressure Bibi from within.

As much as some of them dislike Bibi personally, they know he's on borrowed time. Bibi's demise has never been closer. Why portray yourself as a traitor with the post-Bibi era around the corner?

I think they're wrong in one key aspect: they all assume Likud is going to remain a single unified party and I think it will splinter.

I could see these people jumping ship, but only in one scenario: it becomes apparent Likud won't relevantly exist post-Bibi. If another grouping (Gantz & Sa'ar) starts becoming Likud except without the corruption, settlers, and fascist allies, then they could hop on over to try and curry favor with the new boss. But I think that possibility is still a ways off, and a sturdy opposition coalition remains the likely immediate successor to the current situation for now, with any such transformations being a ways down the road.

[Hnv1]

I think it's unprecedented as armed forces are usually to the right of the elected government and not to the left. Kemalist Turkey is indeed the closest but even there that's not really a like to like.

Just want to add to that, that during the 1948 war Ben Gurion disbanded the Palmah and ousted left wing officers as he feared they might push him out of power (sadly they haven't done so). The senior command of Hagnah headed by Galili and Alon was far more liberal then the provisional government headed by Ben Gurion.

[Hnv1]

The abysmal polling sent Ben Gvir and Otzma on a tantrum. They stopped voting with the coalition until the government adopts "a real right wing policy to Gaza". Likud threatened to fire Ben Gvir, Ben Gvir told them to fire him if they want.

Now I don't think either side really wants it atm, but this sort of things can spiral out of control rapidly

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The abysmal polling sent Ben Gvir and Otzma on a tantrum. They stopped voting with the coalition until the government adopts "a real right wing policy to Gaza". Likud threatened to fire Ben Gvir, Ben Gvir told them to fire him if they want.

Now I don't think either side really wants it atm, but this sort of things can spiral out of control rapidly

Any idea on the updated coup/government collapse odds by the end of the year?

[Hnv1]

The abysmal polling sent Ben Gvir and Otzma on a tantrum. They stopped voting with the coalition until the government adopts "a real right wing policy to Gaza". Likud threatened to fire Ben Gvir, Ben Gvir told them to fire him if they want.

Now I don't think either side really wants it atm, but this sort of things can spiral out of control rapidly

Any idea on the updated coup/government collapse odds by the end of the year?

Coup greatly diminished. I don’t think the government will hold. We might even see it implode by the end of the month during the budget votes

[Estrella]

The abysmal polling

WHEEEEEEEEEEE

[America Needs R'hllor]

The abysmal polling sent Ben Gvir and Otzma on a tantrum. They stopped voting with the coalition until the government adopts "a real right wing policy to Gaza". Likud threatened to fire Ben Gvir, Ben Gvir told them to fire him if they want.

Now I don't think either side really wants it atm, but this sort of things can spiral out of control rapidly

And now we have an operation in Gaza. Palestinian children will die, possibly some Israeli children too, and the Ben Gvir blood demand will be sated for now.

[Hnv1]

Tidbits:

YA:
Lapid is doing another silent purge. Stern and Barbibai might run for that mayorship of Haifa and Tel Aviv respectively, Lapid conditions the party's funding that they resign from the Knesset. Ben Barak said, for the fifth time, that he wants to primary Lapid for leadership.
I feel like Lapid wants to kick all these veterans out and build a younger team around the likes of Merav Cohen and young protest leaders.

Labour/Meretz:
So Meretz is borderline bankrupt, and Labour is borderline electorally insolvent. The merger is going to go down in the immediate future. There's almost unanimous backing in both parties to the merger. Knowing both parties they will somehow manage to make the merger even less appealing than it is to left wing voters.

Likud:
Barkat and Katz reconciled. I read this as a move by the moderates to concentrate efforts against Levine and the populists.

Otzma:
The minicrisis ended but they simply can't be a party holding ministries. I can't see them lasting long in the coalition like this.

Bennett:
Remember that guy? He's clearly making noises like he wants to be back in the mix

[CumbrianLefty]

The abysmal polling

WHEEEEEEEEEEE

That's almost........Trussian.

[LabourJersey]

It does seem like the days of the Bibi era are numbered. Is that a correct assessment?

Though it seems the question of what Israeli politics & life looks post-Bibi intrigues me the most.

[Comrade Funk]

We'll see if the bloodletting helps him in the polls

[Meclazine for Israel]

Israeli's Clearing The Beach

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CsEO30nrYW4/

I don't think it's because of a shark.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The abysmal polling sent Ben Gvir and Otzma on a tantrum. They stopped voting with the coalition until the government adopts "a real right wing policy to Gaza". Likud threatened to fire Ben Gvir, Ben Gvir told them to fire him if they want.

Now I don't think either side really wants it atm, but this sort of things can spiral out of control rapidly

And now we have an operation in Gaza. Palestinian children will die, possibly some Israeli children too, and the Ben Gvir blood demand will be sated for now.

Bibi has had to get skilled at herding cats.

[Meclazine for Israel]

This is like a sport over there.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-13/two-dead-west-bank-israel-strikes-gaza-palestinians-fire-rockets/102343164

I wonder if the holy lands were like this 1000's of years ago.

Slow 50 year old wars between neighbouring groups.

[Hnv1]

If the judicial reform wasn't enough the next budget is basically robbing the public to fund Haredi and religious towns. They're even hurting Likud leaning cities in the "college belt".

Next election is going to be a bloodbath

[CumbrianLefty]

It does seem like the days of the Bibi era are numbered. Is that a correct assessment?

Does look like it, but let's get the coffin lid nailed down eh.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If the judicial reform wasn't enough the next budget is basically robbing the public to fund Haredi and religious towns. They're even hurting Likud leaning cities in the "college belt".

Next election is going to be a bloodbath

Haredi are basically the Jewish Taliban.

[Hnv1]

Aymen Odeh announced he will stepdown as chairman of Hadash and the Joint List before the next elections.

I have no idea if Hadash will go for a more nationalist leader or a more socialist one. Odeh started as the latter and was very promising, but soon found himself pushed to the nationalist agenda

[Cassius]

If the judicial reform wasn't enough the next budget is basically robbing the public to fund Haredi and religious towns. They're even hurting Likud leaning cities in the "college belt".

Next election is going to be a bloodbath

Haredi are basically the Jewish Taliban.

In what way are they the ‘Jewish Taliban’?

[Zinneke]

If the judicial reform wasn't enough the next budget is basically robbing the public to fund Haredi and religious towns. They're even hurting Likud leaning cities in the "college belt".

Next election is going to be a bloodbath

Haredi are basically the Jewish Taliban.

In what way are they the ‘Jewish Taliban’?

they have long beards

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If the judicial reform wasn't enough the next budget is basically robbing the public to fund Haredi and religious towns. They're even hurting Likud leaning cities in the "college belt".

Next election is going to be a bloodbath

Haredi are basically the Jewish Taliban.

In what way are they the ‘Jewish Taliban’?

Women-hating extremists who demand everyone else follow their warped interpretations of their religions.

[Hnv1]

The Haredi are nothing like the Taliban. Please stop this nonsense

[CumbrianLefty]

No, they aren't *the same*.

On the other hand, there are surely parallels.

[Hnv1]

No, they aren't *the same*.

On the other hand, there are surely parallels.

There are parallels between any two social categories. What matters is the degree of relevance and essence. The Haredi are far more like the Amish than they are like the Taliban. If anyone in Israel is similar in any meaningful way to the Taliban it’s the Hardal or the northern section of the Islamic movement.