Israel General Discussion: Annus Horribilis

[America Needs R'hllor]

The government is expected to agree on a 1.5% budget cut for all government ministries (including Defense, Education and Health) in order to increase Ben Gvir's budget for establishing his personal militia.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The government is expected to agree on a 1.5% budget cut for all government ministries (including Defense, Education and Health) in order to increase Ben Gvir's budget for establishing his personal militia.

I have to imagine the demonstrations will continue? This is if anything worse than the court overhaul.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Everyone needs to be on the streets NOW. Histadrut should all a new general strike ASAP. This must not pass at any cost.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The government is expected to agree on a 1.5% budget cut for all government ministries (including Defense, Education and Health) in order to increase Ben Gvir's budget for establishing his personal militia.

Laughing nervously what the  dot jpeg

[Torie]

The government is expected to agree on a 1.5% budget cut for all government ministries (including Defense, Education and Health) in order to increase Ben Gvir's budget for establishing his personal militia.

Is the link between the two explicit? 

If the private militia starts beating demonstrators up (that is its purpose, no?), attended by severe personal injuries, would not that just blow the lid off everything, and force some reaction from the US?

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, looks like Bibi is just digging the hole deeper and deeper.

[Hnv1]

The government is expected to agree on a 1.5% budget cut for all government ministries (including Defense, Education and Health) in order to increase Ben Gvir's budget for establishing his personal militia.

I really doubt this national guard nonsense could take shape so fast, and public officials have ways of delaying undesired policy.

But if they agree a 1.5% general cuts the Haredi are going to find out they can’t afford all the things they’ve demanded…

Ben Gvir is the key for taking down this government

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Historically, it made sense for the USA to provide military aid and other aid to Israel, because of the existential threats that Israel faced and because it was a democracy. And geopolitically, it countered the Soviet Union because the Soviet Union aided the Arab nation states which were Israel's enemies (In particular Syria, Egypt, and earlier on also countries like Jordan).

Not coincidentally, these are also basically exactly the same reasons the USA is currently aiding Ukraine - Ukraine faces an existential threat, it is a democracy, and geopolitically, aiding Ukraine counters Russia.

Today, Israel no longer really faces the same sort of existential threats as it did 50 years ago. It has made peace with most of its neighboring Arab nation-states, and is even becoming outright Allies with many Arab countries. The exception is Syria, but Syria has been greatly weakened by the civil war and at this point doesn't pose much direct threat to Israel. This is certainly not to say that Israel doesn't face any threats any more, but they are not existential threats in the way that they once were. The threats are more of the nature of garden variety civil/ethnic conflict with militia groups like Hezbollah or Hamas. Israel also faces some theoretical threat from Iran, but Iran doesn't even border Israel.

Israel also has nuclear weapons, which can deter any potential attack from Iran even if in fact Iran does get nukes soon. Iran getting nukes would not be good, but if it does happen, Israel will not be in a position any different from the position that the USA and the rest of the world (including Israel itself) has been under for decades with regards to the Soviet Union/Russia, the position that the USA/Japan/South Korea/etc with regards to North Korea, etc.

So the USA no longer really has the existential threat reason to continue supporting Israel. However, as that threat has receded over the past few decades, the USA has continued to support Israel because Israel has been a democracy.

But if this private militia thing is actually implemented, it will be clear that Israel is becoming something more akin to a fascist religious state rather than the western-oriented democracy that it has been up until now. With a private militia roaming the streets and violating human rights, Israel will be becoming more like a Jewish version of Iran than anything we can recognize as a western liberal democracy.

So if that happens, all the USA's original reasons for supporting Israel will be gone, and accordingly the USA should pull aid to Israel as a result. And actually, if that is the case, then we might as well re-direct the aid to Ukraine and use that as a way to increase aid to Ukraine.

Of course, if Israel becomes a democracy again in the future and if it faces any existential threat like it once did and like Ukraine currently faces, then we can always re-evaluate and restore aid.

But ultimately, US aid to Israel and the US relationship towards Israel has never been unconditional, it has always been based on shared values and shared interests. So for that relationship to remain as it has been, Israel will have to decide if it does still share western democratic values.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The government is expected to agree on a 1.5% budget cut for all government ministries (including Defense, Education and Health) in order to increase Ben Gvir's budget for establishing his personal militia.

I really doubt this national guard nonsense could take shape so fast, and public officials have ways of delaying undesired policy.

But if they agree a 1.5% general cuts the Haredi are going to find out they can’t afford all the things they’ve demanded…

Ben Gvir is the key for taking down this government

Complaining that you can't get exclusive perks after demanding money be spent on the oppression of Palestinians is the most Haredi thing ever.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The government is expected to agree on a 1.5% budget cut for all government ministries (including Defense, Education and Health) in order to increase Ben Gvir's budget for establishing his personal militia.

I really doubt this national guard nonsense could take shape so fast, and public officials have ways of delaying undesired policy.

But if they agree a 1.5% general cuts the Haredi are going to find out they can’t afford all the things they’ve demanded…

Ben Gvir is the key for taking down this government

Complaining that you can't get exclusive perks after demanding money be spent on the oppression of Palestinians is the most Haredi thing ever.

To be fair to the Haredim, the people who want first and foremost to get the perks and the people who want first and foremost to bash the Palestinians are pretty distinct from each other within the Israeli far right.

[Hnv1]

Best fit for PM:
Bibi 32%
Lapid 32%


Bibi 31%
Gantz 38%


Chanel 12 poll. Unprecedented

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Best fit for PM:
Bibi 32%
Lapid 32%


Bibi 31%
Gantz 38%


Chanel 12 poll. Unprecedented

Do you think that if the election was held today Likud could even come in third?

[Hnv1]

Best fit for PM:
Bibi 32%
Lapid 32%


Bibi 31%
Gantz 38%


Chanel 12 poll. Unprecedented

Do you think that if the election was held today Likud could even come in third?

No. YA and NUP split too much of their voters base. If they unite maybe but then they’ll lose the moderate right voters they’ve picked from Likud

[Harlow]

If the private militia starts beating demonstrators up (that is its purpose, no?), attended by severe personal injuries, would not that just blow the lid off everything, and force some reaction from the US?

I wouldn't hold your breath.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

If Netanyahu was actually about to do something that would endanger military aid or Iron Dome supplies from the US, the IDF would coup him in 5.2 seconds, most likely.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1642855192319209473?s=20

[2952-0-0]

If Netanyahu was actually about to do something that would endanger military aid or Iron Dome supplies from the US, the IDF would coup him in 5.2 seconds, most likely.

Question here: has a military coup ever happened in a country that has been as wealthy and an established democracy (within its internationally-recognized borders) as Israel? Wouldn't that turn Israel into something akin to Kemalist Turkey?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Netanyahu was actually about to do something that would endanger military aid or Iron Dome supplies from the US, the IDF would coup him in 5.2 seconds, most likely.

Question here: has a military coup ever happened in a country that has been as wealthy and an established democracy (within its internationally-recognized borders) as Israel? Wouldn't that turn Israel into something akin to Kemalist Turkey?

That analogy has popped into my head, yes.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

If Netanyahu was actually about to do something that would endanger military aid or Iron Dome supplies from the US, the IDF would coup him in 5.2 seconds, most likely.

Question here: has a military coup ever happened in a country that has been as wealthy and an established democracy (within its internationally-recognized borders) as Israel? Wouldn't that turn Israel into something akin to Kemalist Turkey?

It's largely unprecedented, but given the extremity of Netanyahu's actions (and the fact that he would likely have to go much further for this to happen), there's also an analogy to the hypothetical of the military stepping in after January 6th goes much worse.

[Vosem]

If Netanyahu was actually about to do something that would endanger military aid or Iron Dome supplies from the US, the IDF would coup him in 5.2 seconds, most likely.

Question here: has a military coup ever happened in a country that has been as wealthy and an established democracy (within its internationally-recognized borders) as Israel? Wouldn't that turn Israel into something akin to Kemalist Turkey?

In terms of post-WW2 coups in Western democracies, Greece 1967 and Chile 1973 both come to mind. France 1961 and Spain 1981 both constituted real attempts. In the United States during the 1960s (Operation Northwoods) the government considered the possibility of a coup to be quite serious. Turkey obviously has had many military coups.

It would be a very singular event in the history of post-Cold War democracy (and really post-early 1980s democracy), but then Israel is a very singular country with, for now, a very singular demographic situation.

[All Along The Watchtower]

If Netanyahu was actually about to do something that would endanger military aid or Iron Dome supplies from the US, the IDF would coup him in 5.2 seconds, most likely.

Question here: has a military coup ever happened in a country that has been as wealthy and an established democracy (within its internationally-recognized borders) as Israel? Wouldn't that turn Israel into something akin to Kemalist Turkey?

insert standard leftist claims that Israel has never been a democracy because “Zionism is inherently exclusionary and racist”

[Хahar 🤔]

If Netanyahu was actually about to do something that would endanger military aid or Iron Dome supplies from the US, the IDF would coup him in 5.2 seconds, most likely.

Question here: has a military coup ever happened in a country that has been as wealthy and an established democracy (within its internationally-recognized borders) as Israel? Wouldn't that turn Israel into something akin to Kemalist Turkey?

I'm not an expert on this period of history, but Argentina in 1930 comes to mind in terms of explicit military coups.

[2952-0-0]

Of course if the Israeli blob really wanted Bibi out, they wouldn't need to send tanks on the streets. More probable would be a public statement of disapproval by the top brass, that would compel him to resign and call for a new election. It would still be shocking, but not so much as tanks on the streets.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

If Netanyahu was actually about to do something that would endanger military aid or Iron Dome supplies from the US, the IDF would coup him in 5.2 seconds, most likely.

Question here: has a military coup ever happened in a country that has been as wealthy and an established democracy (within its internationally-recognized borders) as Israel? Wouldn't that turn Israel into something akin to Kemalist Turkey?

Depending on how much time has to pass before a democracy is considered well-established, Primo de Rivera's coup in Spain in 1923 comes to mind.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Netanyahu was actually about to do something that would endanger military aid or Iron Dome supplies from the US, the IDF would coup him in 5.2 seconds, most likely.

Question here: has a military coup ever happened in a country that has been as wealthy and an established democracy (within its internationally-recognized borders) as Israel? Wouldn't that turn Israel into something akin to Kemalist Turkey?

Greece 1967 comes to mind.

If Netanyahu was actually about to do something that would endanger military aid or Iron Dome supplies from the US, the IDF would coup him in 5.2 seconds, most likely.

Question here: has a military coup ever happened in a country that has been as wealthy and an established democracy (within its internationally-recognized borders) as Israel? Wouldn't that turn Israel into something akin to Kemalist Turkey?

In terms of post-WW2 coups in Western democracies, Greece 1967 and Chile 1973 both come to mind. France 1961 and Spain 1981 both constituted real attempts. In the United States during the 1960s (Operation Northwoods) the government considered the possibility of a coup to be quite serious. Turkey obviously has had many military coups.

It would be a very singular event in the history of post-Cold War democracy (and really post-early 1980s democracy), but then Israel is a very singular country with, for now, a very singular demographic situation.

Spain wasn't really an established democracy in 1981, the first free election in decades had just happened only four years prior. Dunno if OAS constitutes a "real" attempt in France in terms of their likliness of succeeding. Turkey has never been a particularly established democracy.

There's probably been some African countries that were fairly democratic on paper until a coup, but they wouldn't be wealthy and were obviously probably not all that stable democracies to begin with. The equivalent would be a coup in South Africa which despite all its troubles we would all find quite shocking.

Of course as noted above this would probably be a "soft" coup and more like the military forcing Netanyahu to resign rather than announcing that the country is now under the control of whatever is Hebrew for the National Salvation Junta or whatever. Turkey 1997 is a close analogy.