Israel General Discussion: Annus Horribilis

[Hnv1]

I'm sure that Israel will be better off going forward with no meaningful left presence at all, yeah

The zionist left, in its current form, has no room in politics. It has no agenda to promote to its voters on any issue, from the Conflict to the economy.

Yes, they have to go to make room for new organizations.

Disclaimer: I have spent most of the last three decades as a Meretz activist. They're done.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I'm sure that Israel will be better off going forward with no meaningful left presence at all, yeah

The zionist left, in its current form, has no room in politics. It has no agenda to promote to its voters on any issue, from the Conflict to the economy.

Yes, they have to go to make room for new organizations.

Disclaimer: I have spent most of the last three decades as a Meretz activist. They're done.

Also worth noting that there will always be left wing voters (and zionist left wing voters specifically). Their existence is not depending on the institutions of the parties that represent them. The parties and their MKs won't simply disappear and I don't want them to, but I do want them to transform into something new, not beholden to the old institutions.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Not sure if this is the best thread for this, but the other day I noticed that the only Druze member of the current Knesset, Hamad Amar, belongs to Yisrael Beiteinu, which sounds... unusual. Could any of the Israeli posters say something more about him? And perhaps about Druze voting patterns in general. Thanks!

[Logical]

Not sure if this is the best thread for this, but the other day I noticed that the only Druze member of the current Knesset, Hamad Amar, belongs to Yisrael Beiteinu, which sounds... unusual. Could any of the Israeli posters say something more about him? And perhaps about Druze voting patterns in general. Thanks!

I made a big effort post on minority voting results for the last election in the IE board thread.

Eilabun - 2.7k votes (Christian-Druze)
Hadash - 39.91%
Balad - 18.3%
Ra'am - 12.43%
Meretz - 11.24%
YA - 6.16%
Likud - 5.04%
Statist - 3.52%
Labor - 1.45%

Daliyat al-Karmel - 7.2k votes (Druze)
Statist - 54.88%
YB - 15.79%
YA - 11.39%
Meretz - 5.19%
Likud - 3.16%
Hadash - 2.78%
Labor - 2.63%
Ra'am - 1.2%

Isfiya - 4.8k votes (Druze)
Statist - 32.15%
YB - 17.51%
Balad - 11.18%
YA - 8.85%
Meretz - 8.5%
Hadash - 7.62%
Ra'am - 5.62%
Likud - 3.35%
Labor - 2.82%

Yarka - 5.7k votes (Druze)
Likud - 34.43%
Statist - 22.61%
YB - 15.68%
Meretz - 7.44%
Hadash - 7.2%
YA - 6.5%
Ra'am - 2.06%
Labor - 1.19%

Beit Jann - 4.8k votes (Druze)
Meretz - 61.59%
Statist - 9.77%
YB - 8.57%
Labor - 5.96%
Likud - 5.69%
YA - 3.5%
Hadash - 1.55%
Ra'am - 1.14%

Kisra-Sumei 1.9k votes (Druze)
Statist - 39.79%
YB - 16.76%
Likud - 9.77%
YA - 9.25%
Meretz - 7.46%
Labor - 4.68%
Hadash - 3.44%
Balad - 3.08%

The Statists (Gantz + Sa'ar) outperformed here and one can easily imagine why the Druze would vote for a military man.The Meretz strength in Beit Jann can be explained by #4 in their list being a local.

[Hnv1]

Not sure if this is the best thread for this, but the other day I noticed that the only Druze member of the current Knesset, Hamad Amar, belongs to Yisrael Beiteinu, which sounds... unusual. Could any of the Israeli posters say something more about him? And perhaps about Druze voting patterns in general. Thanks!

I made a big effort post on minority voting results for the last election in the IE board thread.

Eilabun - 2.7k votes (Christian-Druze)
Hadash - 39.91%
Balad - 18.3%
Ra'am - 12.43%
Meretz - 11.24%
YA - 6.16%
Likud - 5.04%
Statist - 3.52%
Labor - 1.45%

Daliyat al-Karmel - 7.2k votes (Druze)
Statist - 54.88%
YB - 15.79%
YA - 11.39%
Meretz - 5.19%
Likud - 3.16%
Hadash - 2.78%
Labor - 2.63%
Ra'am - 1.2%

Isfiya - 4.8k votes (Druze)
Statist - 32.15%
YB - 17.51%
Balad - 11.18%
YA - 8.85%
Meretz - 8.5%
Hadash - 7.62%
Ra'am - 5.62%
Likud - 3.35%
Labor - 2.82%

Yarka - 5.7k votes (Druze)
Likud - 34.43%
Statist - 22.61%
YB - 15.68%
Meretz - 7.44%
Hadash - 7.2%
YA - 6.5%
Ra'am - 2.06%
Labor - 1.19%

Beit Jann - 4.8k votes (Druze)
Meretz - 61.59%
Statist - 9.77%
YB - 8.57%
Labor - 5.96%
Likud - 5.69%
YA - 3.5%
Hadash - 1.55%
Ra'am - 1.14%

Kisra-Sumei 1.9k votes (Druze)
Statist - 39.79%
YB - 16.76%
Likud - 9.77%
YA - 9.25%
Meretz - 7.46%
Labor - 4.68%
Hadash - 3.44%
Balad - 3.08%

The Statists (Gantz + Sa'ar) outperformed here and one can easily imagine why the Druze would vote for a military man.The Meretz strength in Beit Jann can be explained by #4 in their list being a local.

Looking at the results without context makes you think there's some ideological drive here. In reality the Druze aren't that dissimilar from other Arab groups in Israel where the vast majority vote according to the family's dictum. back in the days Labour was the strongest force there with the backing of the Tarif family - de facto leaders of the sect in Israel. As Labour was locked out of government other forces began to operate and now you can see Druze voting to a variety of parties but all according to family connections to some candidate.

Lets compare Beit Jann between April and September of 2019

April:
Meretz 64.84%
B&W 19.07%
Labour 3.94%
Likud 3.25%
YB 2.35%

September:
Labour 40.74%
B&W 37.25%
YB 9.74%
Likud 4.85%
JL 3.45%
Democratic Union (Meretz and extras) 2.76%

Stark change! what changed? Alli Salalha who was high up on Meretz list in April was pushed down in September so the voters went to other parties who did deals with Druze leaders.


Very little ideology there. There are some "free" voters in the Druze settlements closer to Haifa, and the Druze Action Committee that operate within Hadash. That's about it.

[Comrade Funk]

Israelis - where do you see these protests going? Do you think it'll stop the bill?

[Torie]

I wonder what Tony Blinken is telling the Israeli government behind closed doors.

So many governments around the world seem to be going "bad" at once at present. (Biden replacing Trump being an exception of course.)

The thing is, is that one of the two major parties in the US probably likes the shift in Israel. And that is a problem. It is tough to fashion a national foreign policy on various issues with a substantial consensus.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/AnshelPfeffer/status/1632299430987571202?s=20

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Since the most right-wing Israeli's are usually the ultra-religious who also don't serve in the military does that mean that Israel's military is actually likely more centrist/center-left than the rest of the country?

[Hnv1]

Israelis - where do you see these protests going? Do you think it'll stop the bill?

They might work very well. Bibi is chickensh**t. He might get cold feet if he senses they're getting too powerful.
They definitely give the SC more legitimacy in striking them down as unconstitutional and the military legitimacy to refuse to obey the government.

The dire reality is that Bibi would rather stop right now but he has no leverages with his coalition partners and that weasel Levine.

[Hnv1]

Since the most right-wing Israeli's are usually the ultra-religious who also don't serve in the military does that mean that Israel's military is actually likely more centrist/center-left than the rest of the country?

In crude terms, no, as the effect you describe is canceled out by a large Arab minority to the left.

The truth is that being a conscription-based military means, the IDF very much carries the social divisions of outside society. Different units exhibit different social traits. While the IAF and the Navy are somewhat more centre-left tilting, the infantry brigades tilt more to the right. The social strata replicate themselves into military strata, e.g., the pilots are more to the centre-left and the airplane technicians more to right.

[Continential]

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-733895

So Ben-Gvir removed the police commander of Tel Aviv and is claiming that it was totally pre-planned.

[America Needs R'hllor]

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-733895

So Ben-Gvir removed the police commander of Tel Aviv and is claiming that it was totally pre-planned.

This police commander got attacked by Ben Gvir for not oppressing the protestors hard enough, of course. He wanted to see blood.
Aaand the attorney general now froze this decision, saying it might be illegal or improper. Constitutional crisis getting closer and closer.

[America Needs R'hllor]

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-733895

So Ben-Gvir removed the police commander of Tel Aviv and is claiming that it was totally pre-planned.

This police commander got attacked by Ben Gvir for not oppressing the protestors hard enough, of course. He wanted to see blood.
Aaand the attorney general now froze this decision, saying it might be illegal or improper. Constitutional crisis getting closer and closer.

According to Haaretz, police chief Shabtai told the Attorney General that Ben Gvir forced his hand on the decision. If true, this should be a gigantic scandal.

[Hnv1]

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-733895

So Ben-Gvir removed the police commander of Tel Aviv and is claiming that it was totally pre-planned.

This police commander got attacked by Ben Gvir for not oppressing the protestors hard enough, of course. He wanted to see blood.
Aaand the attorney general now froze this decision, saying it might be illegal or improper. Constitutional crisis getting closer and closer.

According to Haaretz, police chief Shabtai told the Attorney General that Ben Gvir forced his hand on the decision. If true, this should be a gigantic scandal.

It doesn’t really matter anymore. We all know we’re heading to crisis where the court strikes down the reform. This is just the sh**thousry before the storm.

I hope the future military administration will punish Ben Gvir

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-733895

So Ben-Gvir removed the police commander of Tel Aviv and is claiming that it was totally pre-planned.

This police commander got attacked by Ben Gvir for not oppressing the protestors hard enough, of course. He wanted to see blood.
Aaand the attorney general now froze this decision, saying it might be illegal or improper. Constitutional crisis getting closer and closer.

According to Haaretz, police chief Shabtai told the Attorney General that Ben Gvir forced his hand on the decision. If true, this should be a gigantic scandal.

It doesn’t really matter anymore. We all know we’re heading to crisis where the court strikes down the reform. This is just the sh**thousry before the storm.

I hope the future military administration will punish Ben Gvir

Future military administration?

[Hnv1]

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-733895

So Ben-Gvir removed the police commander of Tel Aviv and is claiming that it was totally pre-planned.

This police commander got attacked by Ben Gvir for not oppressing the protestors hard enough, of course. He wanted to see blood.
Aaand the attorney general now froze this decision, saying it might be illegal or improper. Constitutional crisis getting closer and closer.

According to Haaretz, police chief Shabtai told the Attorney General that Ben Gvir forced his hand on the decision. If true, this should be a gigantic scandal.

It doesn’t really matter anymore. We all know we’re heading to crisis where the court strikes down the reform. This is just the sh**thousry before the storm.

I hope the future military administration will punish Ben Gvir

Future military administration?

Joking(?) about the imminent military coup

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-733895

So Ben-Gvir removed the police commander of Tel Aviv and is claiming that it was totally pre-planned.

This police commander got attacked by Ben Gvir for not oppressing the protestors hard enough, of course. He wanted to see blood.
Aaand the attorney general now froze this decision, saying it might be illegal or improper. Constitutional crisis getting closer and closer.

According to Haaretz, police chief Shabtai told the Attorney General that Ben Gvir forced his hand on the decision. If true, this should be a gigantic scandal.

It doesn’t really matter anymore. We all know we’re heading to crisis where the court strikes down the reform. This is just the sh**thousry before the storm.

I hope the future military administration will punish Ben Gvir

Future military administration?

Joking(?) about the imminent military coup

What would you place the odds of a military coup at between "Centrist wins in Northern Europe" and "Tuesday in Burkina Faso"?

[Hnv1]

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-733895

So Ben-Gvir removed the police commander of Tel Aviv and is claiming that it was totally pre-planned.

This police commander got attacked by Ben Gvir for not oppressing the protestors hard enough, of course. He wanted to see blood.
Aaand the attorney general now froze this decision, saying it might be illegal or improper. Constitutional crisis getting closer and closer.

According to Haaretz, police chief Shabtai told the Attorney General that Ben Gvir forced his hand on the decision. If true, this should be a gigantic scandal.

It doesn’t really matter anymore. We all know we’re heading to crisis where the court strikes down the reform. This is just the sh**thousry before the storm.

I hope the future military administration will punish Ben Gvir

Future military administration?

Joking(?) about the imminent military coup

What would you place the odds of a military coup at between "Centrist wins in Northern Europe" and "Tuesday in Burkina Faso"?

I think I was really from the first people to say it is starting to become a possibility going back to 2019 (I can't be bothered with searching now but my hunch was were heading there after he failed to form a government in May 2019).
The odds kept increasing.

After yesterday I think the odds increased dramatically to 30-40%.

As I see it, he would rather the SC and military stop him and turn him into a martyr then to stop it by himself and lose face with the base. He's just thinking on the best possible collision atm.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-733895

So Ben-Gvir removed the police commander of Tel Aviv and is claiming that it was totally pre-planned.

This police commander got attacked by Ben Gvir for not oppressing the protestors hard enough, of course. He wanted to see blood.
Aaand the attorney general now froze this decision, saying it might be illegal or improper. Constitutional crisis getting closer and closer.

According to Haaretz, police chief Shabtai told the Attorney General that Ben Gvir forced his hand on the decision. If true, this should be a gigantic scandal.

It doesn’t really matter anymore. We all know we’re heading to crisis where the court strikes down the reform. This is just the sh**thousry before the storm.

I hope the future military administration will punish Ben Gvir

Future military administration?

Joking(?) about the imminent military coup

What would you place the odds of a military coup at between "Centrist wins in Northern Europe" and "Tuesday in Burkina Faso"?

I think I was really from the first people to say it is starting to become a possibility going back to 2019 (I can't be bothered with searching now but my hunch was were heading there after he failed to form a government in May 2019).
The odds kept increasing.

After yesterday I think the odds increased dramatically to 30-40%.

As I see it, he would rather the SC and military stop him and turn him into a martyr then to stop it by himself and lose face with the base. He's just thinking on the best possible collision atm.

So, either way, he probably doesn't make it a full four years?

[Hnv1]

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-733895

So Ben-Gvir removed the police commander of Tel Aviv and is claiming that it was totally pre-planned.

This police commander got attacked by Ben Gvir for not oppressing the protestors hard enough, of course. He wanted to see blood.
Aaand the attorney general now froze this decision, saying it might be illegal or improper. Constitutional crisis getting closer and closer.

According to Haaretz, police chief Shabtai told the Attorney General that Ben Gvir forced his hand on the decision. If true, this should be a gigantic scandal.

It doesn’t really matter anymore. We all know we’re heading to crisis where the court strikes down the reform. This is just the sh**thousry before the storm.

I hope the future military administration will punish Ben Gvir

Future military administration?

Joking(?) about the imminent military coup

What would you place the odds of a military coup at between "Centrist wins in Northern Europe" and "Tuesday in Burkina Faso"?

I think I was really from the first people to say it is starting to become a possibility going back to 2019 (I can't be bothered with searching now but my hunch was were heading there after he failed to form a government in May 2019).
The odds kept increasing.

After yesterday I think the odds increased dramatically to 30-40%.

As I see it, he would rather the SC and military stop him and turn him into a martyr then to stop it by himself and lose face with the base. He's just thinking on the best possible collision atm.

So, either way, he probably doesn't make it a full four years?

At this rate I don't see them making it to July.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some big protests again last night, this government isn't having it all their own way for sure.

[Hnv1]

President Herzog published his offer - dubbed the People's Draft, which is basically a constitution, and a decent one so the right immediately rejected it.

I'm not sure what Herzog is playing at, it's clear this is not what he negotiated with the right for weeks, so if he published the draft leaning to the liberal side he must have aimed at something.

[Silent Hunter]

Is this level of political intervention normal for an Israeli president?

[CumbrianLefty]

Is this level of political intervention normal for an Israeli president?

I think they have made "political" statements in the past, so yes to at least an extent.