Israel General Discussion: Annus Horribilis

[America Needs R'hllor]

Update on Israel's new government the past few days:
- Otzma MK called for arresting Lapid and Gantz for treason
- Other Otzma MK said "someone who murders an Arab should go to prison, someone who murders a Jew should be killed"
- Likud MK said he prefers a Jewish murderer (Yigal Amir, in that context) to an Arab murderer (reasoning for taking away the citizenship from Palestinian terrorists and not Yigal Amir)
- Ben Gvir directed the police to get more violent with anti-government protests following a peaceful and successful protest in Saturday

So far it's all talk, but as hnv said... does not bode well. As I am without a car attending protests isn't easy for me but I'll definitely try to attend as many as possible in the future.

Edit: Amichai Eliyahu, the so-called "Heritage Minister" (I piss on his type of heritage personally) supports the MK's statement about Lapid and Gantz.

And declared the Palestinian flag a terrorist symbol.

Yep. Though this is actually not entirely new - the police and military have been confiscation and taking down Palestinian flags in Israel and even the West Bank for a while now. This is sporadically enforced and inconsistent from what I've seen (for example not enforced in most of yesterday's protests), but still obviously a grave attack on free speech.

[CumbrianLefty]

What will be the argument of the blindly pro-Israel apologists if "its the only democracy in the Middle East" no longer applies? All but the most extreme will shy away from openly ethnic justifications, so this is a genuinely intriguing question.

[afleitch]

What will be the argument of the blindly pro-Israel apologists if "its the only democracy in the Middle East" no longer applies? All but the most extreme will shy away from openly ethnic justifications, so this is a genuinely intriguing question.

If Israel finds itself on a backsliding axis somewhere between Orban and Putin, then it's allies will have allowed this to happen...again. And criticism of what could be an actual, and not rhetorical regime will be deemed 'anti semitic' etc by the expected bad faith actors.

Bibi clearly got the administration he wanted.

But I expect the government to collapse in months of the last week is anything to go by.

[Torie]

How dependent is Israel on the US these days and the good will of its government? Maybe Israel has reached a place where it feels free to tell the US to take a hike.

[LabourJersey]

How dependent is Israel on the US these days and the good will of its government? Maybe Israel has reached a place where it feels free to tell the US to take a hike.

That seems...not advisable for the Israelis.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

How dependent is Israel on the US these days and the good will of its government? Maybe Israel has reached a place where it feels free to tell the US to take a hike.

Do they promise to do so? That's the only way I'd support anything this government did.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

How dependent is Israel on the US these days and the good will of its government? Maybe Israel has reached a place where it feels free to tell the US to take a hike.

That seems...not advisable for the Israelis.

Neither side can casually dispense with the other. The US relies heavily on Israeli R&D and intelligence - and more importantly, to ensure they can control the flow of it - while Israel absolutely does need the US as a reliable source for defense tech and a reliable vote against antisemitic forces at the UN.

I'm pretty confident the Biden administration knows this, and while I'm not confident Netanyahu and his craziest partners get it, I'm hoping a few of the saner members of the coalition do.

[NewYorkExpress]

The Supreme Court ruled Aryeh Deri is ineligible to serve as a cabinet minister.

Israel’s top court ruled 10-1 on Wednesday that Aryeh Deri, leader of the Shas party and a key ally of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, should not be allowed to serve as a cabinet minister because of a February 2022 conviction for tax fraud.

Netanyahu should remove Deri from his post, the court ruling said. Such a move would risk plunging the country into a political crisis.

....

The High Court had been asked to rule on whether it was legally reasonable to appoint Deri to posts in Netanyahu’s cabinet despite his tax fraud conviction

Judges ruled that his appointment “cannot stand.”

“This is, among other things, due to his backlog of criminal convictions,” and his failure to retire from public life as he said he would do when being sentenced in the tax fraud case.

The underlying legal issue is whether Deri’s tax fraud conviction constitutes a crime of moral turpitude. Until November’s elections, that would have disqualified him from serving in government.


But Netanyahu and his allies made a change to the law in the wake of their election victory, clearing the way for Deri to become a minister.

Deri was a member of the Knesset at the time of his tax fraud conviction last year.

He resigned as a lawmaker rather than giving the head of the election commission a chance to rule on whether the conviction disqualified him from serving as a minister.

This means that the legal question of whether Deri’s fraud conviction counts as a crime of moral turpitude remains unresolved.

Deri allies have been signaling this week that the Shas party leader would not resign his ministerial post even if the court ruling went against him.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Shocked that Hnv still didn't comment on this legal matter, so I'll have to suffice:

Israeli supreme court ruled that Aryeh Deri can't serve as a Minister because as part of his plea deal he promised to leave politics. Now the ball is in the government's hands - Shas hinted they'll collapse the government if Deri isn't Minister, so this might spiral into a constitutional crisis.

Chief Justice Esther Hayuth made a girlboss move on the government - they didn't just rule it's extremely unreasonable to let Deri back to a Ministry (as expected) but also that he broke his word to the court when he claimed he's leaving politics to get a sweet plea deal and then claimed he didn't actually mean to retire. This means that the government's planned course of action - abolishing the non reasonability cause for supreme court decisions - won't save Deri because they also used a doctrine called "judicial paralysis" which says a person cannot use a legal argument (here- "I never meant to retire") after using a contradicting argument earlier ("I'm leaving politics"). There is pretty much no legal way for the government to keep Deri as Minister now. Game on.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Shocked that Hnv still didn't comment on this legal matter, so I'll have to suffice:

Israeli supreme court ruled that Aryeh Deri can't serve as a Minister because as part of his plea deal he promised to leave politics. Now the ball is in the government's hands - Shas hinted they'll collapse the government if Deri isn't Minister, so this might spiral into a constitutional crisis.

Chief Justice Esther Hayuth made a girlboss move on the government - they didn't just rule it's extremely unreasonable to let Deri back to a Ministry (as expected) but also that he broke his word to the court when he claimed he's leaving politics to get a sweet plea deal and then claimed he didn't actually mean to retire. This means that the government's planned course of action - abolishing the non reasonability cause for supreme court decisions - won't save Deri because they also used a doctrine called "judicial paralysis" which says a person cannot use a legal argument (here- "I never meant to retire") after using a contradicting argument earlier ("I'm leaving politics"). There is pretty much no legal way for the government to keep Deri as Minister now. Game on.

Fine with me. Latest poll from Camil Fuchs has govt at 58 seats.

[Zinneke]

What is Deri referring to when he says the Ashkenazi comitted a genocide against Mizrahi? Like I get its bullsh**t but is there a specific lieu de mémoire he is referring to?


 Does this not affect his relations with UTJ?

[DavidB.]

What is Deri referring to when he says the Ashkenazi comitted a genocide against Mizrahi? Like I get its bullsh**t but is there a specific lieu de mémoire he is referring to?

He's probably referring to the treatment of Mizrahi immigrants in absorption camps after '48. There were simply not enough houses back then, so temporary housing facilities were needed. However, the circumstances in the camps were absolutely miserable and many Mizrahim were forcefully secularized after '48 by the Mapai-led government. In addition, a number of children "disappeared". Obviously not a genocide, but still absolutely awful stuff and an important (if not the most important) part of the reason why most Mizrahim still distrust the Israeli left. UTJ won't care since it's an attack on Labor/the left, not on Haredi Ashkenazim.

[Silent Hunter]

If Israel were to part company with the US, China would be its only likely major ally.

[Hnv1]

Shocked that Hnv still didn't comment on this legal matter, so I'll have to suffice:

Israeli supreme court ruled that Aryeh Deri can't serve as a Minister because as part of his plea deal he promised to leave politics. Now the ball is in the government's hands - Shas hinted they'll collapse the government if Deri isn't Minister, so this might spiral into a constitutional crisis.

Chief Justice Esther Hayuth made a girlboss move on the government - they didn't just rule it's extremely unreasonable to let Deri back to a Ministry (as expected) but also that he broke his word to the court when he claimed he's leaving politics to get a sweet plea deal and then claimed he didn't actually mean to retire. This means that the government's planned course of action - abolishing the non reasonability cause for supreme court decisions - won't save Deri because they also used a doctrine called "judicial paralysis" which says a person cannot use a legal argument (here- "I never meant to retire") after using a contradicting argument earlier ("I'm leaving politics"). There is pretty much no legal way for the government to keep Deri as Minister now. Game on.

It's been a busy week, and I wanted to read the whole 124-pages-long-verdict before I comment!

While the main opinion was his appointment was 'Wednesbury unreasonable' (I'm not sure what the US equivalent to this UK common law construction is. I recall the Chevron case but can't put my fingers on a match), a minority opinion was that Deri's is estopped from arguing against the petition as he misled the trial court in his plea bargain.
i.e., even if the terrible reform goes ahead, Deri'i is still not off the hook.

Currently, the government is contemplating two moves:
-swearing in a rotation government with Deri'i as Alternate PM. The Knesset's discretion with voting in a government isn't subject to the reasonableness standard.
- changing the Basic Law to block judicial review regarding the PM's discretion in appointing ministers.

Of course, Mr. Deri'i doesn't think he should abide by the court's verdict. Laws and rules are beneath him.

The constitutional conflict is gaining even more momentum. The big collision looms near.

Last week, I spoke with a group of neighbors, explaining the catastrophic consequences of said reforms. I hope more will join the protests soon.

[Mike88]

Update: Netanyahu has fired Aryeh Deri from cabinet.

[Silent Hunter]

Also, Religious Zionism boycotted a cabinet meeting over the removal of a settlement at Or Haim.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Has Bibi actually backed down here? Or is he just biding his time while preparing to strip the court's authority?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Always likely to be a trainwreck of a government to some extent or other, but the speed at which this has happened is quite striking.

[Silent Hunter]

Has Bibi actually backed down here? Or is he just biding his time while preparing to strip the court's authority?

Somewhat of a back down. He's not willing to openly defy the courts.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

As many as 150,000 are protesting in Tel Aviv

[Hnv1]

Has Bibi actually backed down here? Or is he just biding his time while preparing to strip the court's authority?

Biding his time. Aryeh Deri’i is not a popular hill to die on. A full standoff will have to wait for something bigger than this petty crook

[Vosem]

Has Bibi actually backed down here? Or is he just biding his time while preparing to strip the court's authority?

Deri serving as a minister is deeply unpopular, even among a plurality of Bibi's supporters. Also, Bibi has no particular reason to care whether Deri, with whom he has an alliance of convenience, is a minister or not. So, he's backed down here, but he has no particular incentive to fight the Court on this question.

[Hnv1]

Has Bibi actually backed down here? Or is he just biding his time while preparing to strip the court's authority?

Deri serving as a minister is deeply unpopular, even among a plurality of Bibi's supporters. Also, Bibi has no particular reason to care whether Deri, with whom he has an alliance of convenience, is a minister or not. So, he's backed down here, but he has no particular incentive to fight the Court on this question.

Bibi does value his opinion. I honestly believe it. The rest of the security cabinet are muppetts, and Bibi wanted to create a sub-forum with Dermer, Deri'i, and Galant to bypass them (and bypass Galant). With the backing of Hanegbi as National Security Advisor, this sub-forum is supposed to give him the backing he needs to push towards a direct conflict with Iran.
He wants to avoid the 2011-12 scenario with Iran at all costs.

To understand his new term we need to understand Bibi is thinking of legacy. He knows his time is starting to run. It's Iran, killing the Palestinian issue "for good," and the legal coup in his top priorities, and in that order. That's why Gantz joining is currently a nuisance for him, as he will thwart two of the three.

[afleitch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/haaretzcom/status/1618300163642036247

[Storr]

There was a shooting at a Jerusalem synagogue. 5 killed, ten victims total including injured. That's not including the shooter who was "neutralized".

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-64430491