Israel General Discussion: Annus Horribilis

[Silent Hunter]

Bibi didn't get to where he is without knowing where the red lines are - and annexing anything beyond the Green Line that isn't the Golan Heights or East Jerusalem would be crossing one for many Western governments. Even with Trump in the Oval, he never did that, and he's got Biden/Harris until at least January 2025.

In any event, Russian-Israeli relations aren't great now either.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

From what I've been reading it seems people think that this government could actually last the whole time it is supposed to last. This seems strange to me since A) the only thing Bibi's government seem to have in common is being utterly atrocious bigoted clowns, and their majority isn't that much bigger than the various 2018-2022 circus governments and B) Israeli politics seems to be generally unstable.

This is something I have also been sceptical of from the start - and surprised so many others aren't.

I think what might make it a little more stable is that many of the worst elements have nowhere else to go. The more center-right parties Bibi has to work with can abandon the coalition and throw things into chaos, and they have the option of working with Lapid after the next election. Ben-Gvir and his ilk can't sink the coalition because Bibi didn't go far enough for them, because the best-case scenario after the next election would just find them in the same situation. So the most likely scenario might be that the coalition just muddles through for a few years, restrained from its most maximalist goals.

[Coldstream]

From what I've been reading it seems people think that this government could actually last the whole time it is supposed to last. This seems strange to me since A) the only thing Bibi's government seem to have in common is being utterly atrocious bigoted clowns, and their majority isn't that much bigger than the various 2018-2022 circus governments and B) Israeli politics seems to be generally unstable.

This is something I have also been sceptical of from the start - and surprised so many others aren't.

I think what might make it a little more stable is that many of the worst elements have nowhere else to go. The more center-right parties Bibi has to work with can abandon the coalition and throw things into chaos, and they have the option of working with Lapid after the next election. Ben-Gvir and his ilk can't sink the coalition because Bibi didn't go far enough for them, because the best-case scenario after the next election would just find them in the same situation. So the most likely scenario might be that the coalition just muddles through for a few years, restrained from its most maximalist goals.

This assumes Ben Gvir can’t go up in the polls, when he’s got a pulpit as the hardline head of police to run from. I think it’s perfectly plausible that he finds himself in a situation where he no longer needs Netanyahu and brings him down to get a bigger slice of the government for himself.

[Torie]

From what I've been reading it seems people think that this government could actually last the whole time it is supposed to last. This seems strange to me since A) the only thing Bibi's government seem to have in common is being utterly atrocious bigoted clowns, and their majority isn't that much bigger than the various 2018-2022 circus governments and B) Israeli politics seems to be generally unstable.

This is something I have also been sceptical of from the start - and surprised so many others aren't.

I think what might make it a little more stable is that many of the worst elements have nowhere else to go. The more center-right parties Bibi has to work with can abandon the coalition and throw things into chaos, and they have the option of working with Lapid after the next election. Ben-Gvir and his ilk can't sink the coalition because Bibi didn't go far enough for them, because the best-case scenario after the next election would just find them in the same situation. So the most likely scenario might be that the coalition just muddles through for a few years, restrained from its most maximalist goals.

This assumes Ben Gvir can’t go up in the polls, when he’s got a pulpit as the hardline head of police to run from. I think it’s perfectly plausible that he finds himself in a situation where he no longer needs Netanyahu and brings him down to get a bigger slice of the government for himself.

Does that not assume that giving the far right or whatever one calls them a bigger pound of flesh would not drive more centrist parts of the coalition or their voters into opposition? Or perhaps there really is a majority for hard right policies, and the only restraint is the prospect of international sanction.

I wonder if living in a tough neighborhood tends to coarsen people. Where is Golda Meir when you need her?

[Zinneke]

From what I've been reading it seems people think that this government could actually last the whole time it is supposed to last. This seems strange to me since A) the only thing Bibi's government seem to have in common is being utterly atrocious bigoted clowns, and their majority isn't that much bigger than the various 2018-2022 circus governments and B) Israeli politics seems to be generally unstable.

This is something I have also been sceptical of from the start - and surprised so many others aren't.

I think what might make it a little more stable is that many of the worst elements have nowhere else to go. The more center-right parties Bibi has to work with can abandon the coalition and throw things into chaos, and they have the option of working with Lapid after the next election. Ben-Gvir and his ilk can't sink the coalition because Bibi didn't go far enough for them, because the best-case scenario after the next election would just find them in the same situation. So the most likely scenario might be that the coalition just muddles through for a few years, restrained from its most maximalist goals.

This assumes Ben Gvir can’t go up in the polls, when he’s got a pulpit as the hardline head of police to run from. I think it’s perfectly plausible that he finds himself in a situation where he no longer needs Netanyahu and brings him down to get a bigger slice of the government for himself.

Does that not assume that giving the far right or whatever one calls them a bigger pound of flesh would not drive more centrist parts of the coalition or their voters into opposition? Or perhaps there really is a majority for hard right policies, and the only restraint is the prospect of international sanction.

I wonder if living in a tough neighborhood tends to coarsen people. Where is Golda Meir when you need her?

Everything from the (anti-Semitic) Merchant of Venice reference to the glorification of Golda Meir as someone who could possibly be suited to the current Israeli political scene make this one of the worst posts on Israel I have seen. Full stop.

[Coldstream]

From what I've been reading it seems people think that this government could actually last the whole time it is supposed to last. This seems strange to me since A) the only thing Bibi's government seem to have in common is being utterly atrocious bigoted clowns, and their majority isn't that much bigger than the various 2018-2022 circus governments and B) Israeli politics seems to be generally unstable.

This is something I have also been sceptical of from the start - and surprised so many others aren't.

I think what might make it a little more stable is that many of the worst elements have nowhere else to go. The more center-right parties Bibi has to work with can abandon the coalition and throw things into chaos, and they have the option of working with Lapid after the next election. Ben-Gvir and his ilk can't sink the coalition because Bibi didn't go far enough for them, because the best-case scenario after the next election would just find them in the same situation. So the most likely scenario might be that the coalition just muddles through for a few years, restrained from its most maximalist goals.

This assumes Ben Gvir can’t go up in the polls, when he’s got a pulpit as the hardline head of police to run from. I think it’s perfectly plausible that he finds himself in a situation where he no longer needs Netanyahu and brings him down to get a bigger slice of the government for himself.

Does that not assume that giving the far right or whatever one calls them a bigger pound of flesh would not drive more centrist parts of the coalition or their voters into opposition? Or perhaps there really is a majority for hard right policies, and the only restraint is the prospect of international sanction.

I wonder if living in a tough neighborhood tends to coarsen people. Where is Golda Meir when you need her?

What centrists exactly? All the centrists (israeli context) within the party left Likud or got purged. The coalition is Netanyahu’s loyalists, the ultra orthodox and different shades of far right between OY, RZP & Noam. There is no reason beyond wishful thinking to believe people who are okay with Ben Gvir being in government would oppose him being PM.

Sure, Netanyahu could ape Mitterand and destroy the far right & take their voters, and he’s probably one of the few who could - but history is more than full of warnings of the danger of letting the far right in.

[Torie]

From what I've been reading it seems people think that this government could actually last the whole time it is supposed to last. This seems strange to me since A) the only thing Bibi's government seem to have in common is being utterly atrocious bigoted clowns, and their majority isn't that much bigger than the various 2018-2022 circus governments and B) Israeli politics seems to be generally unstable.

This is something I have also been sceptical of from the start - and surprised so many others aren't.

I think what might make it a little more stable is that many of the worst elements have nowhere else to go. The more center-right parties Bibi has to work with can abandon the coalition and throw things into chaos, and they have the option of working with Lapid after the next election. Ben-Gvir and his ilk can't sink the coalition because Bibi didn't go far enough for them, because the best-case scenario after the next election would just find them in the same situation. So the most likely scenario might be that the coalition just muddles through for a few years, restrained from its most maximalist goals.

This assumes Ben Gvir can’t go up in the polls, when he’s got a pulpit as the hardline head of police to run from. I think it’s perfectly plausible that he finds himself in a situation where he no longer needs Netanyahu and brings him down to get a bigger slice of the government for himself.

Does that not assume that giving the far right or whatever one calls them a bigger pound of flesh would not drive more centrist parts of the coalition or their voters into opposition? Or perhaps there really is a majority for hard right policies, and the only restraint is the prospect of international sanction.

I wonder if living in a tough neighborhood tends to coarsen people. Where is Golda Meir when you need her?

What centrists exactly? All the centrists (israeli context) left Likud or got purged. The coalition is Netanyahu’s loyalists, the ultra orthodox and different shades of far right between OY, RZP & Noam. There is no reason beyond wishful thinking to believe people who are okay with Ben Gvir being in government would oppose him being PM.

Sure, Netanyahu could ape Mitterand and destroy the far right & take their voters, and he’s probably one of the few who could - but history is more than full of warnings of the danger of letting the far right in.

If the hard right has a majority that will not be eroded by the government catering to its policies preferences, than the only check to more Draconian policies is international sanctions.
I was asking questions. I don't purport to know much about the dynamics of Israel politics.

[Hnv1]

From what I've been reading it seems people think that this government could actually last the whole time it is supposed to last. This seems strange to me since A) the only thing Bibi's government seem to have in common is being utterly atrocious bigoted clowns, and their majority isn't that much bigger than the various 2018-2022 circus governments and B) Israeli politics seems to be generally unstable.

The polarization leads to the solidification of opinions. There aren't many/any moderate Likud members, so the gap with the rest was closed. They also don't care about criticism anymore. Hence, a pretty narrow majority of 64-56 translates to 64 MKs with minor differences between them and an ill will to capitalize on this unexpected power. All the parties in the coalition would want to squeeze this lemon to the max.
They treat the election results as a majority to form a government and a revolutionary majority that will sit as a constituent assembly for the next four years and change constitutional norms left and right.

[Hnv1]

From what I've been reading it seems people think that this government could actually last the whole time it is supposed to last. This seems strange to me since A) the only thing Bibi's government seem to have in common is being utterly atrocious bigoted clowns, and their majority isn't that much bigger than the various 2018-2022 circus governments and B) Israeli politics seems to be generally unstable.

This is something I have also been sceptical of from the start - and surprised so many others aren't.

I think what might make it a little more stable is that many of the worst elements have nowhere else to go. The more center-right parties Bibi has to work with can abandon the coalition and throw things into chaos, and they have the option of working with Lapid after the next election. Ben-Gvir and his ilk can't sink the coalition because Bibi didn't go far enough for them, because the best-case scenario after the next election would just find them in the same situation. So the most likely scenario might be that the coalition just muddles through for a few years, restrained from its most maximalist goals.

This assumes Ben Gvir can’t go up in the polls, when he’s got a pulpit as the hardline head of police to run from. I think it’s perfectly plausible that he finds himself in a situation where he no longer needs Netanyahu and brings him down to get a bigger slice of the government for himself.

Does that not assume that giving the far right or whatever one calls them a bigger pound of flesh would not drive more centrist parts of the coalition or their voters into opposition? Or perhaps there really is a majority for hard right policies, and the only restraint is the prospect of international sanction.

I wonder if living in a tough neighborhood tends to coarsen people. Where is Golda Meir when you need her?

What centrist parts? the marginally centrist section of Likud's electorate left would perhaps be uncomfortable giving too much to UTJ or Noam as they dislike Haredi. Otzma is just an extension of the populist wing in Likud. Demographically and ideologically. If the centrists do somehow reclaim Likud, I could see the populist wing going with Ben Gvir to form a populist-Sephardi party. But as I said I don't think there are many centrists left, as much abandoned ship in different phases since 2013 (and to wider extent 2004)

[Cassius]

Out of curiosity, to those more knowledgeable, what happens to the Likud when Netanyahu finally leaves the political scene (either due to old age or death or, less likely, deciding to call it a day in politics), given his complete dominance within the party?

[Hnv1]

Out of curiosity, to those more knowledgeable, what happens to the Likud when Netanyahu finally leaves the political scene (either due to old age or death or, less likely, deciding to call it a day in politics), given his complete dominance within the party?

Hard to tell. Most likely a nasty leadership battle follows. I personally don't think the party will remain intact as the Bibist-populist wing drifted very much to the right and has more in common with Otzma et al. There's also a question of the future successor, by killing off all rivals any future heir will find it very hard to unite the party behind him or the public in the polls. People like Dermer\Yossi Cohen who Bibi named as possible heirs will find it hard to win with the membership, but people like Katz\Levine will find it hard with the general public.

I am still of the opinion that one Mr. Herzog will be PM by 2030

[Hnv1]

The committee of ministers for national security (aka "security cabinet") - the sub forum of cabinet in charge of all defence and foreign relation affairs - will expand to 11 members and include:
Bibi, Gallant, Levine, Cohn, Katz, Regev, Dichter, Dermer, Smotric, Ben Gvir, and Deri'i.

This is far too wide, and far too loony, so I suppose Bibi will convene a small forum with Deri'i, Dermer, and Levine to address things like Iran on a more frequent basis.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Out of curiosity, to those more knowledgeable, what happens to the Likud when Netanyahu finally leaves the political scene (either due to old age or death or, less likely, deciding to call it a day in politics), given his complete dominance within the party?

Hard to tell. Most likely a nasty leadership battle follows. I personally don't think the party will remain intact as the Bibist-populist wing drifted very much to the right and has more in common with Otzma et al. There's also a question of the future successor, by killing off all rivals any future heir will find it very hard to unite the party behind him or the public in the polls. People like Dermer\Yossi Cohen who Bibi named as possible heirs will find it hard to win with the membership, but people like Katz\Levine will find it hard with the general public.

I am still of the opinion that one Mr. Herzog will be PM by 2030

Which Herzog?

[Hnv1]

Out of curiosity, to those more knowledgeable, what happens to the Likud when Netanyahu finally leaves the political scene (either due to old age or death or, less likely, deciding to call it a day in politics), given his complete dominance within the party?

Hard to tell. Most likely a nasty leadership battle follows. I personally don't think the party will remain intact as the Bibist-populist wing drifted very much to the right and has more in common with Otzma et al. There's also a question of the future successor, by killing off all rivals any future heir will find it very hard to unite the party behind him or the public in the polls. People like Dermer\Yossi Cohen who Bibi named as possible heirs will find it hard to win with the membership, but people like Katz\Levine will find it hard with the general public.

I am still of the opinion that one Mr. Herzog will be PM by 2030

Which Herzog?

The President. Who else?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Out of curiosity, to those more knowledgeable, what happens to the Likud when Netanyahu finally leaves the political scene (either due to old age or death or, less likely, deciding to call it a day in politics), given his complete dominance within the party?

Hard to tell. Most likely a nasty leadership battle follows. I personally don't think the party will remain intact as the Bibist-populist wing drifted very much to the right and has more in common with Otzma et al. There's also a question of the future successor, by killing off all rivals any future heir will find it very hard to unite the party behind him or the public in the polls. People like Dermer\Yossi Cohen who Bibi named as possible heirs will find it hard to win with the membership, but people like Katz\Levine will find it hard with the general public.

I am still of the opinion that one Mr. Herzog will be PM by 2030

Which Herzog?

The President. Who else?

The Ambassador to the United States.

[Hnv1]

Out of curiosity, to those more knowledgeable, what happens to the Likud when Netanyahu finally leaves the political scene (either due to old age or death or, less likely, deciding to call it a day in politics), given his complete dominance within the party?

Hard to tell. Most likely a nasty leadership battle follows. I personally don't think the party will remain intact as the Bibist-populist wing drifted very much to the right and has more in common with Otzma et al. There's also a question of the future successor, by killing off all rivals any future heir will find it very hard to unite the party behind him or the public in the polls. People like Dermer\Yossi Cohen who Bibi named as possible heirs will find it hard to win with the membership, but people like Katz\Levine will find it hard with the general public.

I am still of the opinion that one Mr. Herzog will be PM by 2030

Which Herzog?

The President. Who else?

The Ambassador to the United States.

His younger brother. I don’t think he ever expressed any interest in party politics.

President Herzog is well liked in the right, popular in the centre and still has Labourite roots (though he’s getting on my tits recently). In the era post Bibi I can see the public craving a unifying figure. Herzog ticks all the boxes.

The rest of the heir-apparent all lack some necessary qualities. Lapid is spent. Kochavi has no civilian perspective. Yossi Cohn still hadn’t jumped in. Dermer is too foreign. Levine and Katz uninspiring. Gantz is a muppet.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

First inauguration poll. Gov down to 58 despite Balad not passing the threshold:

LINK

[Hnv1]

I don't usually take part in demonstrations, yesterday I joined the march in Tel Aviv. Sadly, I think this reforms will pass as my fellows on the left are simply incompetent and lukewarm about political resistance.

[Hnv1]

The situation is beginning to feel precarious...tensions are definitely on the rise. More importantly the verbal taboo was lifted and people are throwing the CW words more easily.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The situation is beginning to feel precarious...tensions are definitely on the rise. More importantly the verbal taboo was lifted and people are throwing the CW words more easily.

As in?

[Comrade Funk]

The situation is beginning to feel precarious...tensions are definitely on the rise. More importantly the verbal taboo was lifted and people are throwing the CW words more easily.

As in?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Update on Israel's new government the past few days:
- Otzma MK called for arresting Lapid and Gantz for treason
- Other Otzma MK said "someone who murders an Arab should go to prison, someone who murders a Jew should be killed"
- Likud MK said he prefers a Jewish murderer (Yigal Amir, in that context) to an Arab murderer (reasoning for taking away the citizenship from Palestinian terrorists and not Yigal Amir)
- Ben Gvir directed the police to get more violent with anti-government protests following a peaceful and successful protest in Saturday

So far it's all talk, but as hnv said... does not bode well. As I am without a car attending protests isn't easy for me but I'll definitely try to attend as many as possible in the future.

Edit: Amichai Eliyahu, the so-called "Heritage Minister" (I piss on his type of heritage personally) supports the MK's statement about Lapid and Gantz.

[Torie]

Israel's repeal of Marbury v Madison, the better to expedite the transition to a more theocratic autocratic state has not found universal favor in Israel. Perhaps Israel has decided to compete with Russia as to just what percentage of its educated population will exit to escape a bad place.

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-728524

[afleitch]

Update on Israel's new government the past few days:
- Otzma MK called for arresting Lapid and Gantz for treason
- Other Otzma MK said "someone who murders an Arab should go to prison, someone who murders a Jew should be killed"
- Likud MK said he prefers a Jewish murderer (Yigal Amir, in that context) to an Arab murderer (reasoning for taking away the citizenship from Palestinian terrorists and not Yigal Amir)
- Ben Gvir directed the police to get more violent with anti-government protests following a peaceful and successful protest in Saturday

So far it's all talk, but as hnv said... does not bode well. As I am without a car attending protests isn't easy for me but I'll definitely try to attend as many as possible in the future.

Edit: Amichai Eliyahu, the so-called "Heritage Minister" (I piss on his type of heritage personally) supports the MK's statement about Lapid and Gantz.

And declared the Palestinian flag a terrorist symbol.

[Hnv1]

On Wednesday the Supreme Court will publish the summary verdict in regards to Deri'i. I estimate a unanimous 11-0 or close to it 10-1 verdict against Deri'i by the court. From there things will start to escalate very quickly. Haaretz reporters quoted experts saying we might head into a total crisis where law enforcement agencies will be split in their loyalties. I already predicted it in the past and we're indeed heading there atm.