CO: Trafalgar: Bennet +1.5

[RI]

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/TRF-CO-General-1102-Poll-Report.pdf

Bennet 47.6
O'Dea 46.1

[soundchaser]

EVERY MAN A KING

EVERY RACE A TOSSUP

[iceman]

lol. now this is funny.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?

[Hollywood]

I can't even bother with these R Pollsters with a tightening race in CO.  Republicans might gets 45%, but Ds will still win by 8 points.    Somebody should e-mail them for the cross tabs. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Every poll has Bennet ahead by double digits

[Unelectable Bystander]

LOL and it’s even within 3 weeks to affect the 538 rating

[Terry the Fat Shark]

A little too close, but a performance similar to 2016 (Bennet +6) wouldn't surprise me

[Eraserhead]

Right.

[Alben Barkley]

You can no longer convince me that they don't just make their numbers up (probably for partisan fundraising reasons), no matter what you say. Silver's greatest error ever was giving them an A- instead of banning them. Had too much "social trust" himself to believe these transparent hacks were doing anything but forging their numbers to get a particular result to push a particular narrative.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The most charitable explanation for this poll is that it's one of those outliers that inevitably occur from time to time, especially since they also found Polis up by only 7.

[wbrocks67]

The most charitable explanation for this poll is that it's one of those outliers that inevitably occur from time to time, especially since they also found Polis up by only 7.

And they found Polis up a similar amount in their last poll, that also had Bennet up 6...

[Miked0920]

Do you believe this poll, I still think Bennet wins by around 5 percent or so but Im scared Trafalgar could be very accurate like in the past such as 2016.

[Aurelius]

Just as I was writing this one off. What the hell?

[Independents for Nihilism]

Welcome to Trafalgar, where the numbers are made up and the polls don't matter. Even on a very good night for the GOP I think Colorado is out of reach. But on a very, very good night, maybe...

[SnowLabrador]

Regardless of what you think about Trafalgar, it’s notable that we’re not getting any D internals. I wonder why…

[DaleCooper]

You guys know me, I'm not someone to dissect every poll that shows me something I don't like and I also have defended Trafalgar in the past, so I like to think this isn't the partisan hack within me that's talking right now. All that said, I think I'm done with Trafalgar. They expect me to believe that Wisconsin, PA, Washington, Georgia, and now Colorado Senate are in the exact same place as each other, and that Kansas, NY, Oregon, and Michigan governor are also all in the same place as those Senate races. That's not possible, and I also think that it's statistically impossible (and yes, I'm using that annoying term) for them to conduct so many polls and get every race within a couple points. I don't believe it.

I'm calling it now, any races Trafalgar gets right is sheer luck & wishful thinking. The only reason they're likely to be closer to reality than other pollsters is because literally guessing and making up fake numbers is more accurate than whatever the other pollsters are doing, lol!

[Aurelius]

Regardless of what you think about Trafalgar, it’s notable that we’re not getting any D internals. I wonder why…

Because it's hard to make hyperventilating fundraising emails out of polls that have you up by double digits.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Next Trafalgar Poll:
DC  At-Large Delegate
Eleanor Holmes Norton(D): 48%
Nelson Rimensnyde(R): 46%

[Mr. Illini]

Next Trafalgar Poll:
DC  At-Large Delegate
Eleanor Holmes Norton(D): 48%
Nelson Rimensnyde(R): 46%

Duckworth 49
Salvi 47

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Next Trafalgar Poll:
DC  At-Large Delegate
Eleanor Holmes Norton(D): 48%
Nelson Rimensnyde(R): 46%

Duckworth 49
Salvi 47

Welch 49.7%
Malloy 43.2%

[Real Texan Politics]

Yeah no lol

If O'Dea ran a campaign like Youngkin or even Tiffany Smiley instead of someone like Murkowski/Collins, then maybe I'd be a little more inclined to believe that.

But to have the de facto leader of the GOP publicly bashing O'Dea, likely leading to depressed turnout among MAGA voters in the process, I just can't see it being this close.

[jamestroll]

Yeah no lol

If O'Dea ran a campaign like Youngkin or even Tiffany Smiley instead of someone like Murkowski/Collins, then maybe I'd be a little more inclined to believe that.

But to have the de facto leader of the GOP publicly bashing O'Dea, likely leading to depressed turnout among MAGA voters in the process, I just can't see it being this close.

If Trump was campaigning side by side with Glenn Trumpkin, the results could have been different.

Trump should have kept his mouth shut and this would have been closer.

Bennett will win.

[AnOdyssey]

I think the GOP has a better chance of picking up Colorado with O'Dea at the helm than most people think here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the GOP has a better chance of picking up Colorado with O'Dea at the helm than most people think here.

Bennet will win