NV Sen - Emerson- Laxalt +5

[Pollster]

Poll has no actual undecided voters and does not appear to have a Spanish-language component.

Does not mean it will be wrong, but likely missed key corners of the electorate.

[wbrocks67]

Poll has no actual undecided voters and does not appear to have a Spanish-language component.

Does not mean it will be wrong, but likely missed key corners of the electorate.

Does their New Mexico one appear to have it either?

I wonder if this is why their Hispanic samples tend to be wonky (outside of being rather small sometimes)

[Figueira]

Emerson is a really bad pollster in general, and it doesn't have a very strong partisan bias. It has done pretty well in Nevada, but I wonder if that's an accident. We'll find out I guess.

Anyway, today sure has been a roller coaster for Nevada watchers.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Emerson is a really bad pollster in general, and it doesn't have a very strong partisan bias. It has done pretty well in Nevada, but I wonder if that's an accident. We'll find out I guess.

Anyway, today sure has been a roller coaster for Nevada watchers.

How is it a bad pollster? This seems like a reputation earned in like...2016? They have done much better than most mainstream pollsters since 2018

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Crist is winning in FL are we behind by 5 I. nV and Suffolk just pled this race and had CCM up by 1 they underperforming Females, blks and Latino

DeSantis was never gonna blow Crist out the way he  underpolled Hillum and FK is only an R plus 3 not plus 6 state like TX but Crist as a former R can win. He never raised Taxes, users don't use their own mind they take every poll at face value which it shouldn't be taken every poll at face value polls lie

[South Dakota Democrat]

It’s over. 53-47 senate, 240+ House seats, 2024 is Safe R.

You're annoying.

[South Dakota Democrat]

It’s over. 53-47 senate, 240+ House seats, 2024 is Safe R.

I remain convinced that if Oz and Warnock end up running ahead of their benchmarks, that is a deeply ominous sign for Biden, whereas Fetterman and Walker both having a good night is a good sign for him. Obviously the scale of a Republican (or FTM Democratic) victory in 2022 doesn't imply anything regarding 2024, but then you know that.

Why would Walker doing well be a good sign for Biden?

[Sbane]

NV-01
Robertson (R) 54
Titus (D) 42

NV-02
Amodei (R) 59
Krause (D) 34

NV-03
Becker (R) 52
Lee (D) 47

NV-04
Horsford (D) 51
Peters (R) 47

Gerrymander busted.

Actually this indicates this poll is inflating Laxalt's numbers. NV is going to be close. Laxalt may have a slight advantage but this won't be one we call on election night.

[kwabbit]

NV-01
Robertson (R) 54
Titus (D) 42

NV-02
Amodei (R) 59
Krause (D) 34

NV-03
Becker (R) 52
Lee (D) 47

NV-04
Horsford (D) 51
Peters (R) 47

Gerrymander busted.

Actually this indicates this poll is inflating Laxalt's numbers. NV is going to be close. Laxalt may have a slight advantage but this won't be one we call on election night.

NV is pretty quick. If it’s not within a point, we’ll know the winner within a few hours of poll closing.

[South Dakota Democrat]

NV-01
Robertson (R) 54
Titus (D) 42

NV-02
Amodei (R) 59
Krause (D) 34

NV-03
Becker (R) 52
Lee (D) 47

NV-04
Horsford (D) 51
Peters (R) 47

Gerrymander busted.

Actually this indicates this poll is inflating Laxalt's numbers. NV is going to be close. Laxalt may have a slight advantage but this won't be one we call on election night.

NV is pretty quick. If it’s not within a point, we’ll know the winner within a few hours of poll closing.

I definitely wouldn't call it quick.

[kwabbit]

NV-01
Robertson (R) 54
Titus (D) 42

NV-02
Amodei (R) 59
Krause (D) 34

NV-03
Becker (R) 52
Lee (D) 47

NV-04
Horsford (D) 51
Peters (R) 47

Gerrymander busted.

Actually this indicates this poll is inflating Laxalt's numbers. NV is going to be close. Laxalt may have a slight advantage but this won't be one we call on election night.

NV is pretty quick. If it’s not within a point, we’ll know the winner within a few hours of poll closing.

I definitely wouldn't call it quick.

Most places will be much quicker this year than in 2020. It won’t be as fast as 2016/2018, but it’ll be quicker than PA.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Poll has no actual undecided voters and does not appear to have a Spanish-language component.

Does not mean it will be wrong, but likely missed key corners of the electorate.

Your assuming that would make this poll r biased but I'm not so sure about that. We don't know how much the Latino vote has shifted

[Lief 🗽]

No need to waste your time picking apart this poll, folks. Emerson is the Gold Standard in Nevada and they deserve our trust after their long record of accuracy in this state. This one is over.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

No need to waste your time picking apart this poll, folks. Emerson is the Gold Standard in Nevada and they deserve our trust after their long record of accuracy in this state. This one is over.

(Checks Apple Watch)

But...there's still a week left until Election Day.  We need SOMETHING to do...

[Utah Neolib]

Laxalt has this in the bag at this point. Interesting how Titus hasn’t increased vote share at all in the past several months. Horsford doing better than Titus is also interesting. Clearly, Nevada was a dummymander.

[iceman]

Nevada is one state that generally underestimate democrats. While i’m inclined to believe this poll, seems like the early vote doesn’t seem to add up.

It’s hard to believe that CCM who is now most quite likely losing was once among the frontrunners for Biden’s VP pick.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Laxalt has this in the bag at this point. Interesting how Titus hasn’t increased vote share at all in the past several months. Horsford doing better than Titus is also interesting. Clearly, Nevada was a dummymander.

Is Titus running in the new NV-1 (Henderson) or the new NV-4 (North Las Vegas)?

As much as I want CCM to win, Laxalt is probably favored even if this poll failed to include Spanish-speaking Latinos.

[South Dakota Democrat]

No need to waste your time picking apart this poll, folks. Emerson is the Gold Standard in Nevada and they deserve our trust after their long record of accuracy in this state. This one is over.

Do you annoy yourself as much as you annoy other people, I wonder?

[kwabbit]

No need to waste your time picking apart this poll, folks. Emerson is the Gold Standard in Nevada and they deserve our trust after their long record of accuracy in this state. This one is over.

Do you annoy yourself as much as you annoy other people, I wonder?

They did get Biden +2 in 2020 and Rosen +5 in 2018. That's pretty impressive. They overestimated the GOP by a point in 2016.

Honestly, if that was the record of University of Nevada or something, they would be called the gold standard. But since Emerson is the highest volume nonpartisan pollster that finds decent results for the GOP, their polls are often picked apart.

[South Dakota Democrat]

No need to waste your time picking apart this poll, folks. Emerson is the Gold Standard in Nevada and they deserve our trust after their long record of accuracy in this state. This one is over.

Do you annoy yourself as much as you annoy other people, I wonder?

They did get Biden +2 in 2020 and Rosen +5 in 2018. That's pretty impressive. They overestimated the GOP by a point in 2016.

Honestly, if that was the record of University of Nevada or something, they would be called the gold standard. But since Emerson is the highest volume nonpartisan pollster that finds decent results for the GOP, their polls are often picked apart.

Saying they were accurate in the past is fine.  What I have a problem with is him them following it up with "Clearly they're 100% accurate this time too, so the election is over."  It's just lazy.

[Utah Neolib]

Laxalt has this in the bag at this point. Interesting how Titus hasn’t increased vote share at all in the past several months. Horsford doing better than Titus is also interesting. Clearly, Nevada was a dummymander.

Is Titus running in the new NV-1 (Henderson) or the new NV-4 (North Las Vegas)?

As much as I want CCM to win, Laxalt is probably favored even if this poll failed to include Spanish-speaking Latinos.

Titus is running in the new NV-1. Horsford is running in NV-4. The fact that this poll did not include Spanish speaking Latinos probably is a detriment to it but doesn’t detract that it’s a very good poll for republicans in Nevada.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Laxalt has this in the bag at this point. Interesting how Titus hasn’t increased vote share at all in the past several months. Horsford doing better than Titus is also interesting. Clearly, Nevada was a dummymander.

Its something we have seen before certainly and sure there is the "well gerry isn't designed to hold up in a wave", but at some point it becomes a case of rather than being a successful partisan gerrymander, it becomes and competitiveness gerrymander", unintentionally making more competitive seats.

What we need to see though is the new Hispanic data after this election and what portends long term and whether previous assumptions about the SW hold up. A lot of the movement towards the Democrats in that region was predicated on a sustained growth with the Latino vote and now if that is unraveled, you potentially begin to see massive impacts in Nevada and in New Mexico and it has implications for Presidential elections as well.

The only exception to this would be Colorado, where the college educated white vote is the main driver of the Democratic trend.

[kwabbit]

Laxalt has this in the bag at this point. Interesting how Titus hasn’t increased vote share at all in the past several months. Horsford doing better than Titus is also interesting. Clearly, Nevada was a dummymander.

Its something we have seen before certainly and sure there is the "well gerry isn't designed to hold up in a wave", but at some point it becomes a case of rather than being a successful partisan gerrymander, it becomes and competitiveness gerrymander", unintentionally making more competitive seats.

What we need to see though is the new Hispanic data after this election and what portends long term and whether previous assumptions about the SW hold up. A lot of the movement towards the Democrats in that region was predicated on a sustained growth with the Latino vote and now if that is unraveled, you potentially begin to see massive impacts in Nevada and in New Mexico and it has implications for Presidential elections as well.

The only exception to this would be Colorado, where the college educated white vote is the main driver of the Democratic trend.

The main point of the gerrymander was to protect all three incumbents no matter what, not to hold the seats in as many terms as possible. So any of the three going down is a loss because even if those seats are gained back in 2024, that’s still seniority lost.

Any seat sniped by the GOP for a rental might not be damaging for the national Democratic Party in general, but it is for the state parties. The incumbents reps are their stars and most powerful politicians. The NV Dems would be livid if they lost all of their reps even if they gained them back in 2 years.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yup, that one is going to flip. Dems will be lucky to get 49 senate seats and only this one is lost.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yup, that one is going to flip. Dems will be lucky to get 49 senate seats and only this one is lost.

There hasn't been any Projection yet so let's wait until they call it

Laxalt isn't gonna win by 5 anyways Suffolk has CCM UP 1