NV-Suffolk: CCM +1

[Senator Cris]

https://twitter.com/SusanPage/status/1587536377180192778?s=20&t=qJ36LlCA2S3V...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

That undecided number lol..

[Lief 🗽]

This is like the only state in the country where Democrats aren’t collapsing for some reason.

[President Johnson]

Tossup remains tossup.

[Devils30]

A lot is just going to depend on Clark in person election day vote. Dems won it big in 2018 but lost it narrowly in 2020 and the shift to mail voting makes it unclear what will happen. There is some indication Dems want to vote in person e-day much more than 2020 but the portion remains unclear.

[Sestak]

The undecideds are a perennial problem with Suffolk, correct?

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, could see her getting 45%.

[wbrocks67]

Has "already voted" only at 25%, so looks like the EV right now may only be a quarter of the ultimate total?

[SnowLabrador]

Yeah, could see her getting 45%.

Makes sense. Right now I think she loses 49-45 or so.

[xavier110]

That undecided number lol..

Only 5 percent are undecided. 4 percent choose a third party, 3 none of the above.

[kwabbit]

Has "already voted" only at 25%, so looks like the EV right now may only be a quarter of the ultimate total?

Ralston believes it to be about 40% so far. Although this poll is taken over many days, so that number naturally increased chronologically across the sample.

[wbrocks67]

FWIW, Biden's approval here (-12) lines up perfectly with his national LV/RV approval average right now (-9/10)

[Matty]

That undecided number lol..

Only 5 percent are undecided. 4 percent choose a third party, 3 none of the above.

In 2020, the state went to Biden 50-47

Are we expecting there to be double the number of third party/none of above this cycle?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The undecided % in this race is totally reasonably considering the Nevada ballot format.  47% of the vote probably guarantees a win here.

[Matty]

FWIW, Biden's approval here (-12) lines up perfectly with his national LV/RV approval average right now (-9/10)

Which should tell you a lot about where those undecideds lean

I’m thinking Laxalt takes this by around 1.5 to 2 points

[xavier110]

That undecided number lol..

Only 5 percent are undecided. 4 percent choose a third party, 3 none of the above.

In 2020, the state went to Biden 50-47

Are we expecting there to be double the number of third party/none of above this cycle?

In her last election in 2016, she and the Republican received just 92 percent of the vote. So it’s not farfetched. I assume it will be more like 5 percent go third/NOTA, though.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

That undecided number lol..

Only 5 percent are undecided. 4 percent choose a third party, 3 none of the above.

In 2020, the state went to Biden 50-47

Are we expecting there to be double the number of third party/none of above this cycle?

In 2016, CCM won 47-45.

[kwabbit]

That undecided number lol..

Only 5 percent are undecided. 4 percent choose a third party, 3 none of the above.

In 2020, the state went to Biden 50-47

Are we expecting there to be double the number of third party/none of above this cycle?

In 2016, the D+R in the senate was 91.8%, in 2018 it was 95.8%. 2010 was 94.9%, 2012 was 90.6%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map anyways

[Devils30]

Laxalt, a former state attorney general, leads by 3-1, 67%-22%, in the state's central region. But Masto leads by 49%-40% in Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, and by 46%-43% in Washoe County, which includes Reno.

CCM +9 in Clark would be the same as Biden 2020.

[Matty]

Laxalt is winning Indianapolis voters by 13 points here

Isn’t that a fairly big deal? Ralston says too watch indies

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Laxalt is winning Indianapolis voters by 13 points here

Isn’t that a fairly big deal? Ralston says too watch indies

If Laxalt wins Indiana voters, he wins Nevada.  Mark my words!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, could see her getting 45%.

She's ahead

[Ferguson97]

Laxalt is winning Indianapolis voters by 13 points here

Isn’t that a fairly big deal? Ralston says too watch indies

Doesn't party turnout matter more? I thought Laxalt could win indies by up to 10 points and still lose so long as too many Ds don't vote for Laxalt.