PA-12 - Lee +4 (Lee internal)
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April 27, 2024, 03:46:48 PM
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Author Topic: PA-12 - Lee +4 (Lee internal)  (Read 997 times)
Senator Cris
Cris
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« on: November 01, 2022, 12:34:41 PM »
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Devils30
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2022, 12:45:48 PM »
Any poll with 16% undecideds is useless 1 week out. That said, moderates have had it with these Sanders/Warren blue district and state types.
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Dani Rose
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2022, 01:06:25 PM »
Quote from: Devils30 on November 01, 2022, 12:45:48 PM
Any poll with 16% undecideds is useless 1 week out. That said, moderates have had it with these Sanders/Warren blue district and state types.

I don't think this is the kind of district where there are many moderates, to be honest. Also, like you said, 16% undecideds in a district which has already begun voting en masse, if EV numbers are suggestive of anything, is completely meaningless.
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Gracile
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2022, 03:45:59 PM »
I'm skeptical this seat flips in the end, but a result like this in PA-12 would probably be the least of national Democrats' worries.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2022, 04:46:57 PM »
     Strange poll to release, given that Lee should be safe. Only thing that I can think of is that she is trying to pad her warchest for a future statewide run.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2022, 05:21:25 PM »
Lee is going to win, but her margin of victory will be underwhelming.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2022, 09:27:55 PM »
Fetterman is +20, which isn’t great for his home district. Biden was also +20. Accidental peek into worrying DCCC internals for the Senate or just a bad sample?
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2022, 09:54:56 PM »
Quote from: kwabbit on November 01, 2022, 09:27:55 PM
Fetterman is +20, which isn’t great for his home district. Biden was also +20. Accidental peek into worrying DCCC internals for the Senate or just a bad sample?

Biden won Pennsylvania so I'm not sure how this is "bad". Basically any poll showing Fetterman tied is okay - it means it's still a tossup!
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kwabbit
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2022, 10:14:46 PM »
Quote from: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 01, 2022, 09:54:56 PM
Quote from: kwabbit on November 01, 2022, 09:27:55 PM
Fetterman is +20, which isn’t great for his home district. Biden was also +20. Accidental peek into worrying DCCC internals for the Senate or just a bad sample?

Biden won Pennsylvania so I'm not sure how this is "bad". Basically any poll showing Fetterman tied is okay - it means it's still a tossup!

Fetterman should want to do better than Biden in his home district since Biden won PA by a point. He's famous for being a mayor in the district and portrays himself as an Allegheny everyman. It's basically ground zero for where I would expect him to do better than Biden. It's not damning for him, but it's definitely bad. It's also a little more Dem downballot. Fetterman +24 is best estimate of the district in a tied race.  

One bad district poll doesn't mean much on its own but the district poll is bad.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2022, 10:47:50 PM »
DCCC seems to have a different race:
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2022, 10:04:00 AM »
Quote from: politicallefty on November 01, 2022, 10:47:50 PM
DCCC seems to have a different race:



I started a separate thread for this poll.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2022, 10:54:56 AM »
Seems like this one could actually happen.
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