NM House Emerson: All incumbents ahead by double digits

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1587226159468539904

[Devils30]

At least no one is herding this year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

At least no one is herding this year.

"Stampede in all directions" is probably a better metaphor.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1587235972315578370

Lmao good lord Emerson

[wbrocks67]

Did they... poll using the old district lines?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Did they... poll using the old district lines?

That looks likely.

[wbrocks67]

For reference, the 2020 Presidential vote of the old districts:
NM-01 Biden 60-37
NM-02 Trump 55-43
NM-03 Biden 58-40

OMG they really did

[S019]

Did they... poll using the old district lines?

Quite likely, old NM-01 was Biden+23, old NM-02 was Trump+10, old NM-03 was Biden+17. I guess this is why they call it Memerson, even though their final polls are usually good, so it's quite unfortunate that they messed this up given it'd be nice to have a third quality poll of NM-02 right before the election.

[Devils30]

For reference, the 2020 Presidential vote of the old districts:
NM-01 Biden 60-37
NM-02 Trump 55-43
NM-03 Biden 58-40

OMG they really did

Yep. Very clear they didn’t even do the minor work to look at the new lines. Throw this one in the trash.

[wbrocks67]

For reference, the 2020 Presidential vote of the old districts:
NM-01 Biden 60-37
NM-02 Trump 55-43
NM-03 Biden 58-40

OMG they really did

Yep. Very clear they didn’t even do the minor work to look at the new lines. Throw this one in the trash.

Every pollster will make mistakes, but Emerson is already a bit dubious with their methods (the MTurk, the random change between methodology in different polls, etc), so stuff like this does not install a lot of confidence in them.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1587247459213901825?cxt=HHwWgoCwkfLJhI...

Is it just me or does this explanation make no sense?

[wbrocks67]

If this is how Emerson is doing all their polls, throw all this in the trash lol.

That explanation makes no sense, and you're telling me you just happened to get nearly the exact results as the old lines all these districts? Come on now. I don't think NM-02 is R+12 by registration.

[Devils30]

If this is how Emerson is doing all their polls, throw all this in the trash lol.

That explanation makes no sense, and you're telling me you just happened to get nearly the exact results as the old lines all these districts? Come on now. I don't think NM-02 is R+12 by registration.

This is the dog ate my homework excuse, they clearly didn't want to admit they didn't realize NM had new lines in 2022.

[wbrocks67]

If this is how Emerson is doing all their polls, throw all this in the trash lol.

That explanation makes no sense, and you're telling me you just happened to get nearly the exact results as the old lines all these districts? Come on now. I don't think NM-02 is R+12 by registration.

This is the dog ate my homework excuse, they clearly didn't want to admit they didn't realize NM had new lines in 2022.

How many other states did they not do new lines for? They don't do a lot of House polling, and luckily CT-05 is pretty close to its old lines, but who knows if they even knew that at this point?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

some mega liberal cope tonight trying to take down our beautiful EMERSON

[Dani Rose]

I give Emerson a decent bit of credit, but this...is a mistake I genuinely didn't think a polling firm could make?

[GALeftist]

OMFG 💀💀💀 look at my A rated pollster dawg

[soundchaser]

You can’t change who you are, Memerson.

[new_patomic]

We're in a changing world, but memerson stays the same

[GALeftist]

Is it just me or does this explanation make no sense?

That well known phenomenon where shifting from LV to RV switches districts back to their pre-redistricting partisanship. GTFO Memerson.

[Sestak]

Ok wait. Are we sure this couldn’t have just been caused by a wacky sample that happened to skew in that direction? What was n in each district?

[Boobs]

Ok wait. Are we sure this couldn’t have just been caused by a wacky sample that happened to skew in that direction? What was n in each district?

300 and change for a statewide n of 1,000