NY CITIZENS UNITED GOV HOCHUL+1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1587145209871323138?s=20&t=NatiyI7u4MpYpsARF512-Q

[wbrocks67]

Zeldin leads among white voters by 2%, while Hochul leads among nonwhite voters by just 8%.

So Hochul is doing just as well as Biden did in 2020 with White voters (when he carried the state by 23), but she's only up by 8 among nonwhite voters (Biden won them by over 50)... uh okay

[Duke of York]

Zeldin leads among white voters by 2%, while Hochul leads among nonwhite voters by just 8%.

So Hochul is doing just as well as Biden did in 2020 with White voters (when he carried the state by 23), but she's only up by 8 among nonwhite voters (Biden won them by over 50)... uh okay

Yeah this poll makes absolutely zero sense. There is no freaking way she is only up 8 among non white voters.

[President Johnson]

I'm so done with New York polling this cycle.

[Duke of York]

I'm so done with New York polling this cycle.

me too. The polling has been awful. down by two among whites but up by only eight among non whites when Biden won them by 50? There is no way that is true.

[Eraserhead]

Maybe there should be on thread for all of these. It's out of control at this point.

[kwabbit]

Is this the famed Citizens United? Sometimes I forget that they were a PAC before the Supreme Court case.

[Duke of York]

Im beginning to wonder if these trash polls are being put out so when Zeldin loses he can cry fraud.

[Eraserhead]

Im beginning to wonder if these trash polls are being put out so when Zeldin loses he can cry fraud.

He should be highly competitive throughout NYC with these numbers. Anyone actually think that's gonna happen?

[wbrocks67]

Is this the famed Citizens United? Sometimes I forget that they were a PAC before the Supreme Court case.

Yeah, they've done a few polls. They found Murray +6 in WA and Whitmer +7 in MI but... Hochul +1 in NY.

[Duke of York]

Im beginning to wonder if these trash polls are being put out so when Zeldin loses he can cry fraud.

He should be highly competitive throughout NYC with these numbers. Anyone actually think that's gonna happen?

no. if Zeldin wins im done with politics as this country is beyond saving

[GeorgiaModerate]

Im beginning to wonder if these trash polls are being put out so when Zeldin loses he can cry fraud.

I have actually been wondering if that's an element of the flood-the-zone strategy in several races.

[Duke of York]

Im beginning to wonder if these trash polls are being put out so when Zeldin loses he can cry fraud.

I have actually been wondering if that's an element of the flood-the-zone strategy in several races.

what do you mean?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Im beginning to wonder if these trash polls are being put out so when Zeldin loses he can cry fraud.

I have actually been wondering if that's an element of the flood-the-zone strategy in several races.

what do you mean?

That one possible reason (I'm sure it's not the only one) for so many polls from R-leaning firms showing longshot Republicans like Zeldin surprisingly close or winning is to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the election afterwards if their candidates don't win.  Some of the louder far-right types may well claim that it's evidence of fraud that multiple R candidates lost despite polls showing them leading.  (This would of course ignore the fact that Trump won in 2016 when all the polls showed him losing, but they're not usually hobbled by consistency.)  I emphasize that this is entirely speculation.

[wbrocks67]

This race is almost giving me PA-SEN vibes with the White voter polling. The White vote in many of these polls is generally the same, but the variable that is always different is the nonwhite vote (which is understandable, b/c it's a smaller sample, but still, you'd think there would be variation)

Recent NY polls among White voters:
Siena: Zeldin +1
Emerson: Zeldin +1
Citizens United/KAC: Zeldin +2

Yet Siena has Hochul blowing the water out with Blacks (92-2) and strong with Latinos (56-38), then Emerson is in the middle with the two being tied among Latinos and Hochul +30 among Blacks. Then you have this one, with Hochul only up 8 with nonwhites.

Same story in PA-SEN, where Fetterman/Oz are constantly nearly tied among Whites in every poll while the nonwhite vote has been all over the place (though more of an issue with the GOP pollsters who have Oz at 25-30% of the black vote)

Barring a total collapse with minority voters, Hochul only being down 1-2 among Whites would be utterly fantastic for her.

It's just the odd consistency for me.

[Dani Rose]

[Duke of York]

This race is almost giving me PA-SEN vibes with the White voter polling. The White vote in many of these polls is generally the same, but the variable that is always different is the nonwhite vote (which is understandable, b/c it's a smaller sample, but still, you'd think there would be variation)

Recent NY polls among White voters:
Siena: Zeldin +1
Emerson: Zeldin +1
Citizens United/KAC: Zeldin +2

Yet Siena has Hochul blowing the water out with Blacks (92-2) and strong with Latinos (56-38), then Emerson is in the middle with the two being tied among Latinos and Hochul +30 among Blacks. Then you have this one, with Hochul only up 8 with nonwhites.

Same story in PA-SEN, where Fetterman/Oz are constantly nearly tied among Whites in every poll while the nonwhite vote has been all over the place (though more of an issue with the GOP pollsters who have Oz at 25-30% of the black vote)

Barring a total collapse with minority voters, Hochul only being down 1-2 among Whites would be utterly fantastic for her.

It's just the odd consistency for me.

'

It just doesn't make sense for her to be down 2 with whites and totally collapse among minority voters. I am concerned about this election though.

[free my dawg]

They're just making numbers up at this point.

[Duke of York]

They're just making numbers up at this point.

I think its being done to sow doubt so they can claim fraud when it ends up not being close. The NYC early vote numbers are not showing a one point race.

[Lief 🗽]

I don’t think she’ll do anywhere near this badly but she is still going to massively underperform Biden with non-whites.

[Duke of York]

I don’t think she’ll do anywhere near this badly but she is still going to massively underperform Biden with non-whites.

as long as she wins I don't care what the margin is and i doubt she massively underperforms with non whites.

[Independents for Nihilism]

I'm getting weird Youngkin/McAuliffe vibes from this race now. Probably nothing but will have to watch on election day.

[Duke of York]

I'm getting weird Youngkin/McAuliffe vibes from this race now. Probably nothing but will have to watch on election day.

Im gettin upset vibes too. I hope im wrong.

[Lief 🗽]

I'm getting weird Youngkin/McAuliffe vibes from this race now. Probably nothing but will have to watch on election day.

Luckily NY is much, much more Democratic than Virginia. But there’s no doubt that Hochul is running a horrible campaign and Democrats have dramatically overreached when it comes to crime and covid restrictions.

[Torie]

New Yawkers prefer tough and mean and effective even if morally challenged, than weak and ineffective and seemingly a puppet pulled by unseen strings. So Hochul is perceived as a deer in  the headlights to the predators. New Yawk is one of the most Darwinian places on earth, underneath the "facade" of a robust social safety net. It is all very cynical really.

Her face lift also sucks. Mine was much better (yes I now they don't last forever, but damn it as worth it!). In a state that is Madison Avenue, and all about Madison Avenue, what's up with that?