NV: NYT / Siena: Tied race
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  NV: NYT / Siena: Tied race
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Author Topic: NV: NYT / Siena: Tied race  (Read 762 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 31, 2022, 03:21:21 AM »

New Poll: Nevada Senator by NYT / Siena on 2022-10-24

Summary: D: 47%, R: 47%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2022, 08:07:37 AM »

This seems plausible.

Iíd consider this a good poll for Dems considering usual under represented Dems in NV.

Likely say itís Tilt R still though
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Pollster
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2022, 08:13:03 AM »
« Edited: October 31, 2022, 08:17:23 AM by Pollster »

A lot of strangeness here.

This is a Biden +5 in 2020 sample but oddly only 81% reported a 2020 vote choice. Entirely possible the remaining 19% (the overwhelming majority of whom certainly voted in 2020) make this a more representative sample, but no way to know.

A majority male electorate, which is unlikely to reflect reality.

Hispanic voters make up 21% of the sample, but it says that "non-white" voters are 17%?
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2022, 08:50:16 AM »

A lot of strangeness here.

This is a Biden +5 in 2020 sample but oddly only 81% reported a 2020 vote choice. Entirely possible the remaining 19% (the overwhelming majority of whom certainly voted in 2020) make this a more representative sample, but no way to know.

A majority male electorate, which is unlikely to reflect reality.

Hispanic voters make up 21% of the sample, but it says that "non-white" voters are 17%?

On the Census, there are separate questions for your race and whether you are Hispanic.  So you can be White Hispanic, Black Hispanic, etc.  

This isnít how most pollsters ask this, but thatís what Siena is doing.
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Pollster
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2022, 09:37:22 AM »

A lot of strangeness here.

This is a Biden +5 in 2020 sample but oddly only 81% reported a 2020 vote choice. Entirely possible the remaining 19% (the overwhelming majority of whom certainly voted in 2020) make this a more representative sample, but no way to know.

A majority male electorate, which is unlikely to reflect reality.

Hispanic voters make up 21% of the sample, but it says that "non-white" voters are 17%?

On the Census, there are separate questions for your race and whether you are Hispanic.  So you can be White Hispanic, Black Hispanic, etc.  

This isnít how most pollsters ask this, but thatís what Siena is doing.

Most pollsters do ask Hispanic/Latino ethnicity separately in addition to including it in the standalone ethnicity question - it's normal and often necessary in many parts of the country. Not combining them though is bad methodology and probably messing up both the white and Hispanic/Latino subsamples, especially considering how this sample was weighted.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2022, 11:58:15 PM »

Given that they also have Fetterman and Kelly ahead by 6, Iíd say my username checks out.
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