NV: NYT / Siena: Tied race

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Nevada Senator by NYT / Siena on 2022-10-24

Summary: D: 47%, R: 47%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[MillennialModerate]

This seems plausible.

I’d consider this a good poll for Dems considering usual under represented Dems in NV.

Likely say it’s Tilt R still though

[Pollster]

A lot of strangeness here.

This is a Biden +5 in 2020 sample but oddly only 81% reported a 2020 vote choice. Entirely possible the remaining 19% (the overwhelming majority of whom certainly voted in 2020) make this a more representative sample, but no way to know.

A majority male electorate, which is unlikely to reflect reality.

Hispanic voters make up 21% of the sample, but it says that "non-white" voters are 17%?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

A lot of strangeness here.

This is a Biden +5 in 2020 sample but oddly only 81% reported a 2020 vote choice. Entirely possible the remaining 19% (the overwhelming majority of whom certainly voted in 2020) make this a more representative sample, but no way to know.

A majority male electorate, which is unlikely to reflect reality.

Hispanic voters make up 21% of the sample, but it says that "non-white" voters are 17%?

On the Census, there are separate questions for your race and whether you are Hispanic.  So you can be White Hispanic, Black Hispanic, etc.  

This isn’t how most pollsters ask this, but that’s what Siena is doing.

[Pollster]

A lot of strangeness here.

This is a Biden +5 in 2020 sample but oddly only 81% reported a 2020 vote choice. Entirely possible the remaining 19% (the overwhelming majority of whom certainly voted in 2020) make this a more representative sample, but no way to know.

A majority male electorate, which is unlikely to reflect reality.

Hispanic voters make up 21% of the sample, but it says that "non-white" voters are 17%?

On the Census, there are separate questions for your race and whether you are Hispanic.  So you can be White Hispanic, Black Hispanic, etc.  

This isn’t how most pollsters ask this, but that’s what Siena is doing.

Most pollsters do ask Hispanic/Latino ethnicity separately in addition to including it in the standalone ethnicity question - it's normal and often necessary in many parts of the country. Not combining them though is bad methodology and probably messing up both the white and Hispanic/Latino subsamples, especially considering how this sample was weighted.

[MT Treasurer]

Given that they also have Fetterman and Kelly ahead by 6, I’d say my username checks out.